It is a little inconveniencing but can it really be that bad, I asked myself?

But al that was before I actually experienced them.  If I find myself out of the house when the swtich is flicked off, I cannot get in because the gate and garage are electric and the manual override is on the inside. I can't cook because unlike back home, electric cookers are the standard here. I can't even go out for take away or shop at my local shopping centre because they too are suffering the blackout. At work the phones do not work either. It is a literal, total black out, a silent screeching halt to life.

The electricity crisis has been blamed on everything from wet coal and Black Economic Empowerment (code for poor management and incompetent Ministers).  There are some that feel that Eskom (the local energy giant) is being unjustly vilified and that the company has, all things considered done a stellar job.  Many however believe that Eskom has failed the South African public not just in their inability to provide a predictable and decent delivery of electricity but also in their management of the shortfall. 

Black Economic Empowerment[1]
Eskom is seen as one of the greatest champions for BEE in terms their internal employment as well as in their procurement policy.  It is for this reason that many consider the current power crisis an example of the failure of the BEE program.  There is a massive skills shortage in Eskom at the moment as many of their white engineers and other skilled staff are leaving the company, and the country. There does not seem to be a competent workforce ready to replace them.  A former employee is quoted in Carte Blanche2] as saying that he left Eskom because he:

  'didn't believe there was much of a future for a white male in Eskom. The way    affirmative action was applied, and I believe still is, does not offer any opportunities     to stay there and give your best.'

It was also alleged on Carte Blanche that on the 16th of January this year, the Human Resources department wrote a letter stating that there would be:

 'No white male appointments for the rest of the financial year.'

To blame Eskom's skills shortage solely on BEE however is simplistic and tantamount to using BEE as a scapegoat for the bigger problems that are facing South Africa.  There is a skills exodus that is perhaps only comparable to that of the late 90's.  Many skilled workers are emigrating, primarily to New Zealand and Australia as more and more South Africans lose faith in the ability of the current government to manage/control the crime and corruption that has gripped the country.  

There are also many graduates and skilled workers of all races, who are apprehensive about the possible effects of a Jacob Zuma presidency.  The irony in this is that, in light of the current crisis, there is a good chance that Eskom will have to fill the vacant positions with foreigners as there are now not enough South Africans with the specialist skills that such a company would require.   

Eskom's procurement policy has also come under attack and is pegged as one of the primary reasons that the power plants are not working at full capacity. In 2002, Thulani Gcabashe, the CEO at the time, established a ‘Hierarchy of Procurement' that was to be followed in the sourcing of all of Eskom's products and services.  The following is the procurement hierarchy found in the Eskadaat 6 ‘Procurement from Black suppliers' handbook'.    

Drawing from Eskom stores stock.

Drawing off from existing compulsory Framework Agreements.

Procurement from within Eskom Groups/Divisions

Procurement from Eskom Subsidiaries

Procurement from Black Women-owned Suppliers

Procurement from Small Black Suppliers

Procurement from Large Black Suppliers

Procurement from Black Empowering Suppliers

Procurement from other South African manufacturers

Procurement from local stock holders of South African or imported assets and goods

Direct importation.

Any use of non-value adding agents, Black or other, is avoided.

Coal suppliers were the most affected by this new policy.  Long term fixed contracts with larger mining companies were cancelled in favour of short term contracts with smaller companies.  Eskom pursued policies of reducing its stockpiles and relied heavily on suppliers and the spot market for their coal.  The problem arose when the new suppliers were unable to provide the right quality of coal that Eskom requires to be efficient even during the rainy season.  Anne Crotty in the Business Report on January 29th 2008[3] quoted an expert as saying that the coal that is being delivered by the trucks is "is often of very poor quality and very fine in size," This coal is rendered unusable when wet and causes operational problems at the power plants.

This system also made white suppliers feel marginalised and altered the market as they shifted into the new reality.  The highest point at which they would be sourced is at number seven and eight. This unless they have a local monopoly on the products they supply and even then, there are reports that Eskom will make a point of looking for black owned companies in other cities to supply these products even were this to cost more.  

Eskom has been accused of giving supply tenders to inexperienced suppliers with their only real qualification being that they are black-owned.  To some, Eskom's BEE policies are nothing more than state-sanctioned racism.

Incompetent Governance
The lack of foresight on the part of the government has also been cited as a primary cause of the power shortages being experienced in South Africa.  In the 1980s and the early 1990s, Eskom advised municipalities to close down their power stations, the fulfillment of which wish led to the country becoming entirely dependent on Eskom for its power needs. However, the behemoth only begun investing in new infrastructure to take on its new responsibilities ten years after the closure of the local stations. It therefore found itself chasing behind a rapidly expanding economy, and the demands  of numerous previously unconnected households.

There is now a call for the re-opening of  the previously mentioned municipal power stations, if only to alleviate an unbearable situation. The trouble is, many of the stations have been demolished and the rest are in a state of neglect.  The local authorities are also unlikely to re-invest in the power stations as they are very expensive and will become redundant once the new regional electricity distributors are in place. There is, really, no incentive for the local authorities in saving Eskom's bacon.

But this is hardly a bolt out of the blue, in 1998, the White Paper on Energy policy warned that unless the necessary investments were made, Eskom's power reserves would run out by 2007.  The Government however did nothing in the hope that the private sector would step up to fill that need.  They didn't, but the capacity did run out as predicted.

The Government led by the President and his Deputy Phumzile Mlambo-Ngucka (who was the minister for Energy and Minerals from 1999 - 2005) have taken on responsibility for the crisis.  The official line is to admit culpability, especially with regard to Eskom's warning of an impending crisis, but with the excuse that they underestimated the speed at which the economy was growing. 

There are many however, who contend that these admissions are far from a stance of taking responsibility. They are, it is alleged, a a strategy to take the public's attention away from the matter of mismanagement and corruption.  It is an open secret that the ANC through Chancellor House, the ANC funding vehicle, owns 25% of Hitachi Power Africa which Eskom has been accused of giving preferential treatment in its tendering process.  Two of the largest tenders in Eskom's current expansion drive have been awarded to Hitachi.  The company was awarded a R20bn tender to build a new power station in Limpopo and a similar tender to build another in Mpumalanga, a project that was not even tendered.

Is Load-Shedding the Answer
Load shedding (a fancy name for blackouts) costs the mining industry about R330mn a day in revenues.  This is in turn likely to translate into a loss of R5.6bn in GDP.  This is from the mining industry alone, and does not take into account the many businesses across the board that are reporting huge losses as a result of the crisis. 

Rubbing salt into those wounds, Eskom has proposed a 53% tariff hike to be effected by the end of this year.  Not only are businesses not able to function at their optimum capacity, they will have to pay out more on whatever revenue they manage to make.   The current CEO Jacob Maronga however believes that if South Africans as a whole reduce their electricity usage by 10%, the costs would not seem so high and the savings would help ease the shortages. 

One of the biggest problems with the load shedding is the seemingly haphazard way in which it is implemented. If there is a system (I keep hearing talk of one) it's not clear what it is.  People never really know what days they will be hit or for how long.  The shedding does not seem to be done uniformly, some areas in bands of similar energy use experience more frequent and longer power cuts than others.  (Please note that a lot of businesses have moved to the suburbs and as such most areas are both residential and commercial areas.  This rules out the argument that the residential areas are experiencing outages during the daytime in order to accommodate commercial consumption.)

One way in which the crisis could have been handled is by using a power rationing system similar to what was implemented in Kenya.  Although a draconian measure, properly run power rationing regimes give people more certainty and maintain some semblance of stability in the midst of crisis. This would mean that households and businesses would know exactly what days and times they would have power cuts and plan accordingly. Businesses, particularly those in the service and entertainment industries would be in a position to plan their working hours around the outages and advise their patrons accordingly thereby mitigating their losses, and keeping the peace. 

The Eskom Power crisis has brought the country close to its knees. This coupled with the massive skills exodus, the increasing petrol prices, the international economic downturn and the wrangles within the ANC suggest that the South African economy is headed for some truly trying times ahead.  Will the Government be able to handle this crisis or is it too busy dealing with the power struggle within the ANC and Government by extension? 

[1] Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) is a program that was launched by the South African Government to remedy the inequalities caused by the Apartheid system by giving historically disadvantaged individuals, black South Africans, Coloureds and Indians, access to economic opportunities that were not previously available to them.

[2]  Carte Blanche link

[3] Business Report Link

Ms Maina, who finally found her way into her house, is looking for a contractor who will devise a means by which she can get into her house during the blackouts. She writes exclusively for KenyaImagine. Republication without the permission of the editors- This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it is not permitted.