Finance Minister Amos Kimunya has the opportunity both to win the economic argument for Kibaki and to answer the critics of his government's performance and thus allow the president to embark on his re-election campaign on a confident footing.

The offing national budget will not only provides the incumbent with enviable media publicity but will shed light on President Kibaki's electoral strategy. From the design of the speech to the substantive revenue and expenditure proposals, we will be able to discern both the style and direction of Kibaki's re-election plan.

The most important thing to watch out for will be how the government will seek to answer the questions regarding unequal enjoyment of the recent economic growth that his government has commendably presided over. In short how will Kimunya seek to force a trickle down effect?

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Finance Minister Kimunya	Â

Past Finance Ministers, including Kibaki himself had a comparatively easier task achieving popular acclaim. All they had to do was fix lower prices for certain classes of consumer items. Kimunya's hands however, are tied by both the liberalized economy and a question of balancing expenditure priorities. While it will be easy to reduce taxes especially on basic food items to influence price reduction, he will be required to off set the foregone tax revenue with a hike elsewhere. And that is where the complications will start to arise. Arbitrary tax transfers have their own risks including potential disruption of current economic buoyancy.

What officials at Treasury must be grappling with will be how to achieve the political objectives of the ruling administration with minimal economic disruption. But how can Kimunya achieve his political goals while at the same time avoiding reversing what has been achieved so far?

The recent announcement not to reflect unconfirmed donors' contribution in the budget, points to the administration's commitment to stay the broad economic goals of long term growth and fiscal independence. Given this commitment, the key question will be a trade off where the government accepts short term but non-structural disruption of the economic goals in order to achieve immediate electoral objectives. It will be politically imprudent to let prudent economics ruin the government's political prospects.

Kimunya has two principal tools at his disposal namely the budget speech and tax. Those who are designing the ministerial speech are fully cognizant of the full attention the minister will enjoy on this particular day. To capitalize on this unequalled publicity opportunity, the minister must grab the moment and forcefully defend the economic record of the government.

Vision 2030 has set the tone of the debate. It is an electoral gold mine which if carefully managed will potentially win the undecided and even apolitical group which either desist from voting or wait till last minute to decide. The provision of discussion before its adoption provides the opposition with very narrow room to politicize it as an electoral gimmick not worthy of the electorate's attention ,while providing the government with a high ground in as far as the battle for ideas are concerned. It is an extremely clever pre-budget media build up which the minister must build on.

The budget speech itself must be detailed yet not boring, factual and yet not overly officious for the general electorate's consumption. Humble acknowledgement of mistakes and lessons learnt especially regarding the growing levels of poverty ;and the management of the CDF kitty will go a long way in presenting an image of responsive government while at the same time putting a notice to the government's critics in parliament that criticism should be unbiased. It would also put on notice those in parliament whose management of CDF is anything but efficient. This self-critical approach to the speech will preclude it joining the long list of soporific and pompous budget speeches.

In the speech, the minister should not avoid addressing the Anglo-Leasing scandal. Such a bold move will not necessarily be fatal as some may fear. In any public discourse, the frames employed to convey a message determines it reception. While desisting from admission of guilt, a frame that endeavours to convey a sense of remorse and a government that intends to strengthen fiscal governance will go well with a public that is renowned for forgiving. But the minister should know that the monstrous scandal cannot be wished away. A complete disregard of this controversy will cast a long shadow to whatever else the minister would tell the nation.

On the tax trade offs, Kimunya will need to deeply reflect of the reality of the widening gap between those few who are enjoying the economic recovery and the majority who are left scrapping by. Though influencing price reduction of foodstuff may be seen by some as an old electoral gimmick, it will be a gesture that will have a direct impact on huge percentage of the electorate. Majority of the poor who cannot afford a descent meal will not give a whiff about any controversy about such a move as the difference between ugali on a plate and hungry stomach is all too painfully real.

Other than this simple tax manipulation, the government's real intention to tackle social economic problems will be discerned from its overall inter-sectoral transfer of resources. Given the competing bids from the various delivery departments on sectoral kitties, how Kimunya will prioritize such competing bids will shed light to Kibaki's thinking on what needs immediate attention from government. Past instances where department with powerful personalities took precedence over deserving department in resource allocation should be long gone. Inter-sectoral resource transfers will also indicate the government seriousness in making Vision 2030 a policy reality.

Another area where the Minister may seek to demonstrate the commitment of the government to tackle abject poverty will be announcing a set of initiatives including immediate plans to embark on the president's pledge to address the question of housing for the urban poor. Despite the complexity of slum tenure politics, announcement of policy and indication of activities, however minimal, preferably as soon as the budget is voted will go along way in endearing the government to the electoral-rich urban slum dwellers.

Ministries may also schedule their developmental activities to coincide with the electioneering period. In the past, it was usual to see heavy construction machineries getting busy during the election period only to leave roads even in worse states than before. Given its economic performance, Kibaki's administration for all its fault is not expected to employ such expensive waste of public resources. Alternative method of employing the same trick but in a more tax efficient manner will be to undertake a country wide low scale regeneration drive for the dilapidated schools and health facilities. Such a move will not only create local employment but will also infuse desperately needed funding for the rarely regenerated rural infrastructure.

An adventurous Kimunya may also go ahead and poach some of the manifesto proposals of leading opposition figures and advance on them. Given the absence of glaring ideological divide between the different competing political parties, such a move may not particularly scandalous. One such a proposal may be the establishment of tax free zones in Malindi or Mombassa and Kisumu. UK's New Labour has perfected this type of policy poaching to its benefit and seems to get away with them time and again.

Whatever my former colleagues at Treasury fashion out, this will be a very crucial budget for Kibaki administration. And given his reputation in economic management and his experience in managing the national economy; I am sure he will not leave anything unaddressed. As the first post-KANU election budget, many observers will be watching to see how Kibaki will achieve the

balance between economic prudence and electoral needs.

Last year's budget.