Kenya's poverty reduction efforts are coming under increased strain as more and more Kenyans find themselves accosted by the most extreme inflation, certainly levels only previously experienced in the austerity of the early 1990s.
The National Bureau of Statistics reports inflation is up to 31.5%, up from 26.6% in April, this largely on the back of increased food and fuel prices. While it is true that the causes of the inflation are in part external and global (we have previously covered the food and energy crises here), it is clear that the future for Kenyan trade and business looks increasingly pallid.
Underlying inflation, a measure that does not include fuel, food or transport stands atjust over 7.25%, a figure that although much lower than the CPI figure is still above the 5% target that the Central Bank has set itself.
With public spending likely to remain low in the face of the reduction in government revenue and increased public expenditure (extra Ministers, extras for Ministers, fat pensions for former MPs and the urgent need for relief for IDPs), the worst effect of the increased inflation will be its depressing of the business climate and the potential of the private sector to boost economic growth.
The growth of the last five or so years, has to a large degree been predicated on cheap money, whose supply will become increasingly limited as banks and other lenders react to the reduced buying power of the shilling. Businesses across the country will also be hit by the reduction in consumers purchasing power, with many, even those in the middle class finding they have very little in the way of discretionary income. In Nairobi, fuel retailers are for the first time posting five digit fuel prices.
The overall effect, especially as wages (expected to grow a mere 8% on last year) remain low is for a grimmer outlook than the projected 4.5% growth for this year portends. 2008 may be the year of multiple defaults on loans, increased layoffs, increased industrial action, food riots and heightened crime. The politicians it seems, are unmoved, at least they are acting that way.
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While inflation is hitting Kenyans so hard, why the Sh345m as a pay deal for former MPs who served from 1963-2002?
This is nonsense. I would not like to pay MPs who participated in making Kenya a one party state and contributed partly to the fiasco of the last presidential elections. These MPs had contracts by then and worked according to it's writings. I do not see why these people are getting a new contract.
Marende should explain this secret deal to Kenyans. We are seeing again a situation where things are decided behind doors - there is no watchdog system.
When will this new constitution come out? Kenyans have become slaves of the people who are/were (1963-2002) supposed to serve them.
Aux armes, citoyens!!!
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