The United Nations and the World Health Organisation are expected to admit soon that previously published global estimates on the spread of the deadly virus, the number of AIDS sufferers and those dying from HIV/AIDS around the world were previously overstated. There was already from Kenya, like Uganda and Zimbabwe reports that the HIV infection rate was declining, but these were low key reports for such is not the news that makes for national headlines or even for international ones.

High AIDS rates and the myth of whole villages of Africans being wiped out have together created a massive industry in the Western world, not just among journalists hungry to get a front-page headline but most of all with departments in aid agencies eager to justify allocations for HIV-AIDs work.

But there's more to smile about than just the news that HIV is not as widespread as was widely assumed. The bulk of the revision is down to revised figures from both India (which has slashed its figures by half to a new total of six million) and sub-Saharan Africa. These new numbers are evidence of a much more managed approach to AIDS and its treatment, which approach has led not just to the reduction of the mystery surrounding the ailment, but also increased testing and supply of anti-retro viral drugs.

These revised numbers confirm the opinions of many experts who have long criticised the methods the UN uses for measuring how widespread and virulent the HIV virus is, claiming that the inflation deflected attention and funds away from worthier health causes and distorted the efforts of the HIV industry, guiding it to push resources and efforts where they were less needed and leaving out more needy regions. 

The fresh evaluation of the global AIDS epidemic, states that 2.5million people were newly infected with HIV this year. Only a few years ago, this number was about five million.  The difference in the new numbers is largely due to different testing methods. The old method was largely based on hospital admissions, the numbers of pregnant women at pre-birth clinics and the projection of infection rates among high-risk groups and the subsequent projection of these numbers to the whole population. The improved system takes on a much more balanced approach incorporating into the above figures the results of direct household surveys.

But it is most important not to be complacent. The real danger is that the revelation of the exaggerated numbers now brings about a perception in health ministries and international health agencies that it is time to take the foot of the pedal on HIV-AIDS. Yet while the global AIDS numbers are falling, huge regional differences exist. Africa remains the centre of the epidemic. AIDS and related illnesses persist as a leading cause of death across the continent, affecting men, women and children. Whereas in other parts of the world treatment is made easier by the conditions concentration of specific groups gay men, intravenous drug users and sex workers, the African case involves the treatment of the whole population.

The element that may be overlooked in most commentary is that these diminished numbers also show that part of the strategy taken up have been successful, the increased testing, the increased supply of anti-retrovirals (especially cheaper generic ones) and the improvement of primary health care systems across large parts of the world.

Whether it is abstinence that is your persuasion, or condoms or simply a regimen that demands the utmost fidelity, AIDS is as deadly as ever  and although a positive test is no longer condemnation to an early grave, only the most reckless would take this news as a sign that personal habits should be relaxed. Be careful.