What decisions we make with regard to the food crisis in the next year or two, in a reality already beset with rocketing fuel prices, a global credit freeze and the peculiarities of our internal politics may very well define the destiny of this country we call ours.
First off, whatever our views are on solutions, pretty much everyone
agrees that the main reasons for the rise in global food prices are market
expectations (hence speculation and hoarding) and market forces (wealthier
Asians who can afford to pay more and eat more , bad harvests, adverse
weather conditions, and increased demand for grain for use in bio-fuel
generation).
Wasting it
But there is another great factor that is as relevant for food as it is
for energy. Food waste comes in different forms, the big, the bad and the ugly.
More people around the world are consuming more than they should . Larger, even
super-size portions are not just bad for health, they deny the same
resource to those who truly need it and such excessive demand, especially from the wealthy distorts the
market and places prices beyond the
reach of the less well-off. That's the big, now for the bad.
Supply
inefficiencies, poor roads, delays and poor storage for example, lead to great increases in prices to the consumers, and often to
great waste of already scarce food
resources. That is an Indian link from March 2008, can any Imaginator call up a good example of the extent of Kenyan waste?
Then there's the ugly, the inexcusable. The
Western world, or should we just say the affluent around the world bin food in
the billions every year. In the UK , this number is upto 40% of all food, in the
US about a quarter of all food, in Japan
$100 bn dollars worth, or $780 per
capita, that is greater than Kenya's unadjusted GDP per head. These
figures are very likely reflected in affluent parts of Kenya too, wasted bread, fruit and vegetables in one part while the poor have nothing but single sukuma wiki leaves at exorbitant prices.
Rice Crispies
The International Rice Research Institute has a report out that looks to
explain the shortage and the price hikes. First as always the whip to the
hoarders and speculators for the recent price hikes, and may we also add to the
protectionist measures of panicked governments.
Then a bit of background. The report demonstrates that rice prices have
been falling from the 1960s up till 2001, a large part of this because of the
Green Revolution in Asia. Greater acreages under tillage, greater technology,
increased farm inputs like fertiliser and pesticides meant greater production
and all around a drastic slashing of Asian poverty. But this has led to
incredible population and economic growth. More people, with higher incomes can
afford to pay higher prices for even more energy on their plates. In addition,
people in other parts of the world, and especially in Africa have become greater
consumers of rice. These factors have together conspired to send demand far in excess of
supply.
The report also sites the rise in oil prices ($118.30 yesterday ) as a cause
of the crisis. This has led to an increase in the transport and processing prices for all food products, as well as leading to a hike in the prices of fertilisers- the
report charts Urea prices against Crude as an example. With regard to this, and
as an Imaginator said in comments last week, the Ministry of Agriculture should
hold back on its cheap fertiliser campaign. Cheaper chemical fertilisers only
create a dependency and further enervate the soil making it less likely that if the price was to become unsustainable, the farmer could do without.
Biofuels are another cause, and in Kenya, the temptation to go into the bio-fuels game must be resisted;
especially where that land would have been used to grow food.
Solutions? Africa badly needs to have its Green Revolution, look here for some of the motivation for last Green Revolution . Better seed, improved land
use, better technology, higher output per land unit, better storage and better
transmission of those calories from the farmer to the marketplace. Certainly
those farmers expelled from their land, whether in the Rift Valley or in
Central Kenya must be assisted in getting back to their land and producing even more food. In all, we may have to make painful trade-offs with regard to equity, efficiency is going to be far more important now.
The Kenya government's measures to increase farm
prices are the right way to go, farmers after all, even peasants do respond to
market incentives. The urge for a short term fix to placate those in cities must not lead to any steps that would discourage farmers. In the end, the more rewarding farming is, the more people there will be employed in it, the more food all around and the cheaper supplies for the cities will become. The revival of marketing bodies, and of processing plants is
also a step in the right direction as is, specifically to rice, the revival of
such projects as the Ahero, Mwea, Bunyala, Bura, West Kano, Perkerra Irrigation Schemes.
The government must be resistant to the cries for subsidies from civil
society, the consequences of encouraging state intervention on behalf of the
consumer will be devastating in the long term,not just for their effect on production but also because they are very
difficult to reverse (remember the national trauma when price caps were taken
away in the late 1980s, early 1990s?) It was actually then that Zimbabwe's
troubles started.
It would be interesting to see in the comments what the situation is at
the irrigation schemes the government says plenty of work has been done. how much has changed? Much more work will be needed, but can it be done properly, what about desalinated sea water, hydroponics? Is Minister Ngilu up to the task? What are market prices like today?
For more, the IRRI report is
below. For the hungry, rice crispies, the new cake: reliably and fashionably the last item in an indigent
student's cupboard.
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Malthusian Links & Complex Pol written by Ngigi wa Kamau , April 25, 2008
I am always intrigued by the Malthusian connections made whenever a Green Revolution is mentioned. Malthus was a great pessimist who believed that population growth was the greatest threat to the world and hence, efforts to curb it should take priority. This is based on the argument that a green revolution, by way of increased food output, spurs unbridled population growth.
Thus, in some circles, the Malthusian argument would be relied upon to justify deaths due to starvation. However, if there's any lesson from History it is that Malthus was wrong, and always will be. I rely upon evolutionary biology here but empirical analysis would also support this position.
Whenever a species is threatened by a predator, it can either evolve to defend itself against the threat, or in the interim use fertility as a survival tool. Thus, cicadas breed in their billions to sate the predators. Similarly, in high risk societies, the fertility rate is very high e.g. in case of war, epidemic, famine etc. This is because mortality is high and hence, enough people need to be born to ensure species survival.
Food security, however, obviates the need to breed in large numbers. Consequently, fertility falls.
Food output in Western Countries and Asia has grown exponentially since 1900 yet the area under cultivation has only increased marginally since. Lower food prices have been the norm given higher productivity. In some cases, governments (US,EU, Canada) have worked to further depress prices via subsidies.
Result? Declining fertility across wealthier societies.
If we care to recall our primary school geography, richer people tend to have fewer babies. Thus cheap food via a Green Revolution leads to food security - this leads to higher GDP due to greater labour productivity, and subsequently reduced fertility.
The current food price spike is therefore an opportunity for Africa. It will be the spur that results in the conversion of idle land into agricultural land and thus remedying, in a period of about a year, the food deficit. For the first time in years, 2007 saw a Kenyan maize surplus given the high price offered by the market.
In as much as recent violence has affected production in the Western/North Rift region, rational farmers elsewhere have planted maize in large quantities despite the cost of fertilizer. Incidentally, it is in the highly mechanised North Rift where farmers are most dependent on petrochemical manures. In Central Kenya where individual land holdings are modest, for example, farmers have resorted to using cattle manure in planting.Unfortunately or otherwise, it will be the so called "victims" of the violence who will benefit from higher food prices this year - this may aggravate social tensions especially given the ethnic composition of some slums.
High agri-prices will spur investment in technology e.g. tractors and perhaps complementary activities( e.g. dairy keeping)rather than the monoculture prevalent in large-scale farming.
Perhaps, the greater opportunity in this current climate is a revert to organic manure and possibly, safe pest management. I imagine high fertiliser and pesticide costs (most of which have origins in petrochemicals) will inspire the pursuit of Integrated Pest Management. Kenya is already a leader in IPM through the horticultural industry (see Homegrown's Dudutech). The question is whether we'll manage to spread these skills to all farmers.
The main challenge is whether we'll allow the Kenyan policy that views farmers as servants of urban dwellers - the task being to produce cheap food even if it means bearing the cost of subsidies by government disinvestment and taxation.
It is time rural roads were prioritized across the country so that farmers can realise scale and economic growth. The dairy and beef industries enjoyed some hints of what could be with proper policy prioritization. It is time to take the next steps and invest heavily in agricultural areas.
I'm on a long polemical roll this lovely & wet Nairobi Friday.
Ngigi Hello, Ngigi, do write the editors at
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, we are always looking for new writers, experts and editorial help. Asante, Eds.
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what should be done? written by mkosakabila , April 25, 2008
Some more info on the food crisis and what else should be done: Link 1 Link 2 Link 3
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Malthus written by Stephen Wanyama , April 26, 2008
Bwana Ngigi, the strawman Malthus is always wrong, even as history continues to vindicate the Thomas Robert Malthus who wrote the Essay. Malthus did not teach benign neglect, and he did not discount the benefits of technology. Malthus focuses on the relationships between population and production. His essay does predict that the environment and nature will always check our tendency to reproduce more than we can feed and the question now is whether that is the case. Three things before breakfast. Hysteresis in reproduction patterns, the Welfare State, Globalisation. It seems to me that mankind has got so much maendeleo in the last century or so that our instincts are no longer dealing with the same realities our ancestors were dealing with. For example, the improvements in healthcare, the damage we can do to our planet and the resultant effect on its homeostatic negative feedback systems, (see the Gaia Hypothesis, James Lovelock) and the extent to which we can no longer control production or depend on others to feed us. This massive planet we seem to think, can take anything, so with the same vigour that our ancestors slashed and burned, we slash and burn, except we are much more efficient at it than they ever were. Wealth in the third world leads us to take on the exorbitant habits of the Western world, more meat, more wheat, large cars, large bars, etc. Also, the old tendencies favouring large-families persist long after they are useful on the basis of the survival arguments. Even where there are hardships today, people do not die in quite the same numbers that they once did, so in many places people are piling on like their ancestors did, but not attending nearly as many funerals. The need to have larger families can no longer be claimed to be a reaction to the shedding of numbers on account of population pressures. In the old all producer society, I could only have so many children as my land would allow me, today when I can depend on the welfare state, the Red Cross, the WFP and charity, I can have as many children as I want and pass on that burden to someone else. In the West (see teenage pregnancies in the UK or US among the poorest) or alternatively check out this out; Aidan Hartley in the Rift Valley and the Mt. Elgon region, recently on British TV. Not that I agree with him but those people there are still giving birth like no-one֒s business. In addition, the traditional idea that wealthier people have smaller families no longer holds true. More and more professional women are choosing to have three or more children. For me, part of the solution lies in returning a large part of the responsibility for food (and other) production to as local a level as possible. Globalisation means that hard working city workers in Kenya are adversely affected by events as far away as Australia or Argentina. It is going to be much more difficult to persist in the business as usual model. In a market economy, where money talks, and talks loudly, the poor and the weak bear the brunt. Malthus positive checks in the form of lowered life expectancy, food shortages, has to be paid by the poor. Turudi mashambani, at least spiritually. There is a lot of land that is currently lying unused ( I have seen quite a lot of this in the Rift Valley, Coast, Eastern and Nyanza provinces. I am not as pessimistic as Lovelock, and neither do I think we will soon be extinct, but I would feel much more comfortable if I knew on a local level that we were building self-sustaining societies. Zimbabwe again is a massive example of a dependent society, and look where that led it. The passion petered off somewhere mid-speech, dunno even if I made sense.
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Lets start importing now written by Kim G , April 29, 2008
I suggest that the government looks for means of importing food stocks from NOW! The policy over the past 5 years has been to restrict food imports in order to guarantee Kenyan farmers of a market. And its a policy that has worked well. However, this year, it should be plain to everybody that we aren't going to produce anything close to previous harvests. If we wait for October to start importing, it will be too late and food shortages, Zimbabwe style, will become a reality. If we start building up our reserves now, then by the end of the year, we will have something to eat and at a reasonable price.
But then, such measures require visionary leadership which is in short supply in Kenya.
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... written by Ngigi wa Kamau , May 02, 2008
Bw. Wanyama,
I think our readings of history differ but I think the following reminders will serve to bolster my case.
Before 1900, food security in Africa and Asia was very high due to mixed cropping agriculture. If you go into an good library, you will be hard pressed to find reports of Asians and Africans dying due to famine. However, around the same time, residents of Ireland and UK would face famine due to failure of potato crops. As industrialisation marched on, monocropping became the norm rather than the exception.
The current crisis, therefore, presents an opportunity to rediscover "traditional" foods such as cassava, millet and sorghum thus enhancing our food security. As well, alternative foods may yet land on dinner tables in Njeru Githae fashion. For example, Nigerians did not consider snail a typical dish before the Biafran war. However, the federal governments scorched earth policy famished the Igbos that they eventually discovered the value of snail as a delicacy. After all, one does not plant snail.
Additionally, a recent reporthttp://www.ns.umich.edu/htdocs...hp?id=5936 by the University of Michigan showed that one does not have to depend on petro-chemical fertilisers to raise agricultural yields. A recent story in the Christian Science Monitor highlights how intercropping and organic manure can boost output to levels similar to those of petrochemical manureshttp://www.csmonitor.com/2008/...-sten.html.
As for the Malthusian element and your disagreement with the fact that richer people have fewer babies, just look at the at the World Bank's World Development Indicators and analyse the fertility level against GDP per capita.
Going back to my example drawn from evolutionary biology, food shortages are our present predator threatening famine, malnutrition, and death. As smart creatures, we will revert to organic manures (given the economic incentives) adjust our agricultural policies (freeing import restrictions), and in the interim adjust our diets to cope with the adjustment process.
Malthus has nothing against a wise species - our biggest threat is actually coming from pandering politicians who would have us raise wages rather than address the systemic issues that hamper agricultural productivity in developing countries.
Regards.
Ngigi
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tipping point written by Stephen Wanyama , May 02, 2008
Check Aidan Hartley's vids here. Kenya's Human Time Bomb. Not exactly endorsing his thesis, but there is evidence in that video that a) poor people are surviving hardship much more than they did before and b) they are not necessarily reducing the size of their families.
About family size, I am merely pointing out that many recent studies have shown (in some countries I should have added) an increase in family size and fertility (particularly the US and the UK).
Finally, with regard to the ability to adapt and bounce back. I hate to be the Cassandra but it may very well be that we have pushed out luck a little too far, which is why I am pointing at the Gaia hypothesis. I am of course not saying we will definitely die out as a species, but life as we know it may be much altered and few, much fewer certainly than we are survive. I do not think there is a similar historical period in recorded history.
Enter eternal recurrence, at least of the earth, . Next incarnation of our race, perhaps more respectful of the planet?
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Thus, in some circles, the Malthusian argument would be relied upon to justify deaths due to starvation. However, if there's any lesson from History it is that Malthus was wrong, and always will be. I rely upon evolutionary biology here but empirical analysis would also support this position.
Whenever a species is threatened by a predator, it can either evolve to defend itself against the threat, or in the interim use fertility as a survival tool. Thus, cicadas breed in their billions to sate the predators. Similarly, in high risk societies, the fertility rate is very high e.g. in case of war, epidemic, famine etc. This is because mortality is high and hence, enough people need to be born to ensure species survival.
Food security, however, obviates the need to breed in large numbers. Consequently, fertility falls.
Food output in Western Countries and Asia has grown exponentially since 1900 yet the area under cultivation has only increased marginally since. Lower food prices have been the norm given higher productivity. In some cases, governments (US,EU, Canada) have worked to further depress prices via subsidies.
Result? Declining fertility across wealthier societies.
If we care to recall our primary school geography, richer people tend to have fewer babies. Thus cheap food via a Green Revolution leads to food security - this leads to higher GDP due to greater labour productivity, and subsequently reduced fertility.
The current food price spike is therefore an opportunity for Africa. It will be the spur that results in the conversion of idle land into agricultural land and thus remedying, in a period of about a year, the food deficit. For the first time in years, 2007 saw a Kenyan maize surplus given the high price offered by the market.
In as much as recent violence has affected production in the Western/North Rift region, rational farmers elsewhere have planted maize in large quantities despite the cost of fertilizer. Incidentally, it is in the highly mechanised North Rift where farmers are most dependent on petrochemical manures. In Central Kenya where individual land holdings are modest, for example, farmers have resorted to using cattle manure in planting.Unfortunately or otherwise, it will be the so called "victims" of the violence who will benefit from higher food prices this year - this may aggravate social tensions especially given the ethnic composition of some slums.
High agri-prices will spur investment in technology e.g. tractors and perhaps complementary activities( e.g. dairy keeping)rather than the monoculture prevalent in large-scale farming.
Perhaps, the greater opportunity in this current climate is a revert to organic manure and possibly, safe pest management. I imagine high fertiliser and pesticide costs (most of which have origins in petrochemicals) will inspire the pursuit of Integrated Pest Management. Kenya is already a leader in IPM through the horticultural industry (see Homegrown's Dudutech). The question is whether we'll manage to spread these skills to all farmers.
The main challenge is whether we'll allow the Kenyan policy that views farmers as servants of urban dwellers - the task being to produce cheap food even if it means bearing the cost of subsidies by government disinvestment and taxation.
It is time rural roads were prioritized across the country so that farmers can realise scale and economic growth. The dairy and beef industries enjoyed some hints of what could be with proper policy prioritization. It is time to take the next steps and invest heavily in agricultural areas.
I'm on a long polemical roll this lovely & wet Nairobi Friday.
Ngigi
Hello, Ngigi, do write the editors at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it , we are always looking for new writers, experts and editorial help. Asante, Eds.