Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan met with chief executive officers of the of Kenya's largest corporations and other members of the Kenyan business community in Nairobi Tuesday.
The CEOs forum was organized by the Kenya Private Sector Alliance and is expected to draft a presentation on a working solution to end the political and economic crisis in Kenya.
In addressing the forum, Annan said:
Resolving of the current crisis is not about individuals. It is not about Honourable Raila Odinga or President (Mwai) Kibaki but about strong institutions that will ensure the country will not have to return back to this kind of crisis every couple of years.
The business community emphasised the need to quickly resolve the current political impasse as Kenya continues to lose revenue.
"[Kenya has ]no minerals, no oil, ours is an economy built on our brains, guts, wits and enterprise thus hardly hit by political instability, " said the Eveready Kenya CEO Steve Smith. “Let’s face it, many firms don’t have to manufacture here in Kenya, no one owes Kenya a living, There are questions already being asked, why are you there? What gives you the advantage to stay in Kenya?"
“The crisis is big and the financial services sector will be hit more by the aftershocks of the crisis. The worst has not hit banks yet ...," Adan Mohammed, Barclays Bank managing director was quoted in one of the leading dailies.
“Every day that they continue to pontificate, to strategise, to dance, another little bit of Kenya is disappearing,” said Mr Michael Joseph, Safaricom CEO. “We may reach a point of no return when there may be no country to govern, no people to touch and give Kenyans what they really want, an equal place in the sun for all to share.”
Is Kenya at a risk of losing manufacturing opportunities to neighboring countries such as Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia? Even in the pre-election economic growth, and as companies like General Electric, Celtel, Nokia and Google lines up to move into Nairobi, others were moving away to more favourable shores, including famously many flower farms migrating north to Ethiopia.
Finance minister, Amos Kimunya, has been on record acknowledging massive losses
to the exchequer. Such losses now probably close to the Ksh 100 billion mark are likely to severely dent the 7-8% growth rates projected for this year. With the ODM and its supporters unlikely to concede defeat any time soon, there is every possibility that any peace deal will be decidedly fragile and that investment will continue to be deferred until such a time as long-term stability looks sufficiently assured. The government's much vaunted ability to run a budget with minimal borrowing is sure to face severe challenge this year, and especially as donor assistance is suspended.
The
tourism sector, worth a massive $1 billion to Kenya is in free-fall in spite of the best efforts of the sector's major players. Reports of violence in the world media continue to dissuade visitors, and may depress and redirect bookings for the rest of the year. The growth of the last five years had seen massive investment in new and bigger hotels, and in increased flights to Nairobi and the coastal city of Mombasa. Now however, charter airlines are flying into Mombasa
empty and returning to Europe full. There are reports of more than 40,000 jobs lost at coastal hotels and many chains are closing the majority of their hotels, both in the Rift Valley and at the coast. It is not limited to the resort hotels either, reports of Nairobi hotels laying of staff and cutting the wages of those kept own show that a recovery is not expected soon.
The productive Rift Valley now aflame was the breadbasket of the country, and with much of its farming and business population expelled to refugee camps, the harvest for this and next year will be much diminished. Already there is a great increase in the prices of farm produce and massive waste with tea factories and milk dairies going up in smoke.
What remains unpredictable is the consequences of having 500,000 people previously self-dependent unable to fend for themselves, and finding themselves unemployed in the cities. The IDPs from the Rift Valley expulsions of 1992 and 1997 were part of the reason for the growth in power and prominence of the Mungiki, and similar criminal and debilitating consequences are likely again as the IDPs find themselves compelled to make a living in Nairobi, Central Kenya and Nakuru.
And it is not just these cities that will suffer, the city of Kisumu will find it hard to attract, particularly before a permanent resolution, any investment that will make a difference to its impoversihed millions. With the business class expelled and many bread-winners now unemployed, the city may see a large number of its population impelled to migrate to Nairobi to escape its destitution.
All around the country, is a really grim picture, and increasingly, even the projections of 2-4% growth published by pundits of a more dour disposition than the treasury seem far too generous.
Meanwhile, some better news,
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Because we have made noise in the past, and sought even to take the government to the Hague, polisi wanakalia masikio. God save Kisumu.