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State of Kenya: The economic impact PDF Print E-mail
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Tuesday, 05 February 2008

Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan met with chief executive officers of the of Kenya's largest corporations and other members of the Kenyan business community in Nairobi Tuesday.

The CEOs forum was organized by the Kenya Private Sector Alliance and is expected to draft a presentation on a working solution to end the political and economic crisis in Kenya.

In addressing the forum, Annan said:

Resolving of the current crisis is not about individuals. It is not about Honourable Raila Odinga or President (Mwai) Kibaki but about strong institutions that will ensure the country will not have to return back to this kind of crisis every couple of years. 

The business community emphasised the need to quickly resolve the current political impasse as Kenya continues to lose revenue.

"[Kenya has ]no minerals, no oil, ours is an economy built on our brains, guts, wits and enterprise thus hardly hit by political instability, " said the Eveready Kenya CEO Steve Smith. “Let’s face it, many firms don’t have to manufacture here in Kenya, no one owes Kenya a living, There are questions already being asked, why are you there? What gives you the advantage to stay in Kenya?"

“The crisis is big and the financial services sector will be hit more by the aftershocks of the crisis. The worst has not hit banks yet ...," Adan Mohammed, Barclays Bank managing director was quoted in one of the leading dailies.

“Every day that they continue to pontificate, to strategise, to dance, another little bit of Kenya is disappearing,” said Mr Michael Joseph, Safaricom CEO. “We may reach a point of no return when there may be no country to govern, no people to touch and give Kenyans what they really want, an equal place in the sun for all to share.”

Is Kenya at a risk of losing manufacturing opportunities to neighboring countries such as Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia? Even in the pre-election economic growth, and as companies like General Electric, Celtel, Nokia and Google lines up to move into Nairobi, others were moving away to more favourable shores, including famously many flower farms migrating north to Ethiopia.

Finance minister, Amos Kimunya, has been on record acknowledging massive losses to the exchequer. Such losses now probably close to the Ksh 100 billion mark are likely to severely dent the 7-8% growth rates projected for this year.  With the ODM and its supporters unlikely to concede defeat any time soon, there is every possibility that any peace deal will be decidedly fragile and that investment will continue to be deferred until such a time as long-term stability looks sufficiently assured. The government's much vaunted ability to run a budget with minimal borrowing is sure to face severe challenge this year, and especially as donor assistance is suspended.

The tourism sector, worth a massive $1 billion to Kenya is in free-fall in spite of the best efforts of the sector's major players. Reports of violence in the world media continue to dissuade visitors, and may depress and redirect bookings for the rest of the year. The growth of the last five years had seen massive investment in new and bigger hotels, and in increased flights to Nairobi and the coastal city of Mombasa. Now however, charter airlines are flying into Mombasa empty and returning to Europe full. There are reports of more than 40,000 jobs lost at coastal hotels and many chains are closing the majority of their hotels, both in the Rift Valley and at the coast. It is not limited to the resort hotels either, reports of Nairobi hotels laying of staff and cutting the wages of those kept own show that a recovery is not expected soon.

The productive Rift Valley now aflame was the breadbasket of the country, and with much of its farming and business population expelled to refugee camps, the harvest for this and next year will be much diminished. Already there is a great increase in the prices of farm produce and massive waste with tea factories and milk dairies going up in smoke.

What remains unpredictable is the consequences of having 500,000 people previously self-dependent unable to fend for themselves, and finding themselves unemployed in the cities. The IDPs from the Rift Valley expulsions of 1992 and 1997 were part of the reason for the growth in power and prominence of the Mungiki, and similar criminal and debilitating consequences are likely again as the IDPs find themselves compelled to make a living in Nairobi, Central Kenya and Nakuru.

And it is not just these cities that will suffer, the city of Kisumu will find it hard to attract, particularly before a permanent resolution, any investment that will make a difference to its impoversihed millions. With the business class expelled and many bread-winners now unemployed, the city may see a large number of its population impelled to migrate to Nairobi to escape its destitution.

All around the country, is a really grim picture, and increasingly, even the projections of 2-4% growth published by pundits of a more dour disposition than the treasury seem far too generous.

Meanwhile, some better news,

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Kisumu is bad
written by JaKisumo , February 06, 2008
There was a time when we hear could point fingers and blame Kibaki and Kikuyus. That time has passed, there are now goons going door to door robbing, they are pretending to be looking for Kikuyus and Kambas but they will take from anyone, even Luos. They are breaking into shops and looting, they are putting up insecurity outposts on the roads into town, checkpoints at which wananchi are forced to donate money to their violent cause in the name of course, of Raila.

Because we have made noise in the past, and sought even to take the government to the Hague, polisi wanakalia masikio. God save Kisumu.
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written by Hussein Musa , February 06, 2008
typical nothing they do should suprise anyone.they have lost their ball.by the way is njoroge michuki still in hospital?
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Kofi Annan\'s hotel room in Na
written by Ashkam , February 06, 2008
I just read this on a South African paper. I hope this is not true otherwise it would undermine the credibility of the on going talks. Here is the link
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re: Kofi Annan\'s hotel room i
written by newxgate , February 06, 2008
I just read this on a South African paper. I hope this is not true otherwise it would undermine the credibility of the on going talks. Here is the link

The link is to a story about Kofi Annan's room in the Serena being allegedly bugged. However, I am inclined to doubt its veracity since the story has not shown up on any other international source (eg Reuters, BBC). The bugging was supposed to have been discovered last night so that is 24 hours, plenty of time for another news source to have picked it up. If anything I am more interested in who might be propagating such rumours to the press and why.
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Underdevelopment
written by Wuod Aketch , February 07, 2008
Kenya is still so backward that I doubt the capacity of the Kibaki goons to bug anything.
Did you know that if you die in Kenya and if you are unlucky that your body is damaged beyond recognition, then it risks to be disposed of by the mortuary. The authorities cannot do DNA tests, this test does not exist in Kenya. It is usually undertaken in South Africa and is only done when the state is under intense pressure to reveal the identity of a dead person.
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Hell to pay
written by observer , February 07, 2008
The killings and destruction of property over the past couple of weeks have brought into question the viability in Kenya of the cornerstones of a market based economy. The mechanism of free markets guided by a free price system require ownership and freedom of movement of not just capital but labor.

If the majority of the population has started to view these very basic aspects as oppressive then we cant function as a country. The notion that these conditions must exists for the creation and sustainability of civil society with political freedoms might as well get thrown out of the window in regards to Kenya.
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 06 February 2008 )
 
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