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The recalibration of Obama

Written by Dave Nyambati

Thursday, 21 January 2010

On Tuesday night as the results trickled in from Massachusetts, President Obama and his inner circle watched with slow horror. This was an eventuality they had been steeling themselves against for days – but even with the odds stacked, they had reserved a glimmer of hope. Hope that their last minute scrambling, Obama’s spate of rallies over the final weekend, had been enough to eek out the slimmest of slim victories. Hope that the Lion’s legacy, one that the late senator Ted Kennedy built brick by brick over the last thirty odd years would endure. Hope that this bluest of blue states would once again reinforce a Democratic candidate victory.

Photo: Whitehouse.gov

But the voters of Massachusetts had a different plan. To be fair, there had been no reason for the Democratic National Committee (the institution charged with overseeing and helping manage Democrats campaigns) or the White House to panic early on. This was a state that Obama had won by 62% and less than two months ago, it seemed their candidate; Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley was coasting to a safe victory. Soon after she won the primary, some polls had Coakley up by 20-30 points over Republican Scott Brown and with the election just a few weeks away, no one was worried. However, electoral campaigns are run for a reason and Coakley and her campaign adopted the wrong tone for the current mood of the state. In essence, she campaigned as if she had already won, but the people of Massachusetts would have the final say.

Flash forward a few weeks to last Tuesday and the stunning loss of the seat that the late Kennedy had held since 1962 to his death last year. More importantly, the seat had been the 60th Senate vote for the Democrats, the number needed to pass legislation without Republicans being able to block it. The loss had left the Democratic establishment embarrassed, deflated and scrambling to find answers while the Republicans crowed, touting their victory as an American referendum on Obama's policies.

Obama has been wounded, and though the blow by no means fatal, has left him with a number of very difficult choices. The most pressing is the question of how to proceed on healthcare reform. With failure of the bill not an option, all the paths left to success will anger some portion of the electorate. He could quickly call for a vote before the new Senator from Massachusetts is seated, but that would infuriate the people of that state and further alienate them, something he cannot afford to do.

That leaves two options; scale back the bill to the point that it wins support from at least one Republican senator or ram the final bill through reconciliation in the Senate where he would only require 51 senate votes to get it through. The first option would leave the Democratic voter base, people already not happy with the exclusion of the ‘Public Option ’ from the bill, very angry at the perceived failure of Obama to do what they elected him to do. On the other hand, if he rams it through, it would appear arrogant and tone deaf, a perception that could build a backlash making an already tough election year that much harder.

However Obama decides to proceed on healthcare reform and later other issues like immigration and the environment, he will have to change his approach and recalibrate to the tone of the American people. He still enjoys personal admiration from a large majority of the populace which means most people still like him and will at least listen to him when he speaks.

Obama the improbable candidate proved how dexterous and adaptive he could be coming from a place where no one gave him a chance to becoming an unstoppable force hurtling towards the presidency. Obama the president will have to reach deep down and once again seek advice from his earlier self if he is to have a successful presidency. The issues he is facing are the biggest any president has had to face in a generation. Only time will tell how Obama recalibrates, but if the recent past is anything to go by…I would not count him out just yet.