I am not one for hype. I do not even have a Facebook
account, so you know how quickly I wrote off Barrack Obama's chances of winning
the American Presidency. It did not help either that he was chummy with Kenya's
opposition leader Raila Odinga.
I was not the only one who'd written him off it seems. Many
Kenyans, even we tribal people, who will vote anyone we share the slightest
'blood' bond with, had already given up on him. We were immensely proud, a
brave effort, he would make a good showing, but it would be best if he gave up
and accepted that America was not ready for a black President. Maybe try for
number two while he learned the ropes, made a few friends and got some
experience. Over in the United States,
the black people came out in large numbers, speaking against him, he was not
black enough, his blackness was foreign, Kenyan, not African-American and he
knew nothing of the stigma of slavery or of segregation.
The poor Senator actually had to stake a claim to the tradition of Martin
Luther King and the civil rights movement. Hillary Clinton, whose husband
was christened, 'the first black President' was the black candidate -as
defined by support in that segment of the population.
That is a nice tag -black candidate- to have when you are not black,
but when you are, it could be the kiss of death in America's
highly racialised political society. The previous black candidate, at
least the one who got a large enough number of votes to be considered a
realistic candidate, had been the Rev. Jesse Jackson, he of the other Rainbow
Coalition. (Kenyans seem to have lost it for American names, FORD, NARC, and
Pentagon!!) Rev. Jackson had run in 1984 and 1988. It was a decent run with
wins in 11 states before he finally bowed out. Perhaps because he was
constantly attacked by the media with the subliminal -is America
ready to vote a black president? -in the end it did seem like a bit of a fairy
tale.
Now that there, fairy tale is an adjective you can use on someone's
ambition only when he is of your race, it is something you can get away with
saying when you are black, or Hispanic or Asian and not otherwise. In America's
very race-conscious society with dominant races and oppressed ones, such an
assessment, no matter how enunciated, is the epitome of condescension when
directed at a black man of ambition.
Bill Clinton, previously persuaded of his negritude by Maya Angelou, did not
seem to have picked on the need for sensitivity. In a bizarre series of attacks
following the surprising mettle Obama showed in the first few primaries and
caucuses and the rapid closing of the gap in national opinion polls between
Hillary and Obama, he (Clinton) suggested that Obama's campaign was a fantasy,
not unlike Rev. Jackson's 20 years earlier. Subsequently, and with more than a
nudge from the Clinton camp, the
message went out, Obama only wins where there is a large concentration of black
voters.
Black voters have always been loyal to the Democratic Party - orphaned and
neglected though they are in America's
two-party system. For this reason they make for one of the most important
constituencies for any Democratic Party candidate, and they factored greatly
into Hillary Clinton's massive end of 2007 opinion poll leads, which were by
all accounts at the time, unassailable. But Obama's subsequent victories, the
stubborn resolution in the ‘Yes, We Can' clarion call and the Clintons'
attacks on him rallied this section of the electorate and pushed it away from Clinton
and to the Illinois Senator where they have stayed since.
This migration was not instantaneous. With the full knowledge of the
entrenched discriminatory systems in American society, it took some time before
black voters took Obama at all seriously (to this day there are many who will
not vote for him out of fear that he will be assassinated if elected), but once
they started to shift, there was no holding them back. Obama's victories, even
as they have included states like snow-white Iowa and been strongest in
demographics like white males, voters with more than one degree, voters with an
income in excess of $100,000 and the majority of first-time and the less-than-30
year old voters, has for a fact brought in many more black voters into American
politics than ever before. In Lousiana, in the Potomacs, in Georgia and it is
expected today in Texas and Ohio as well, Barack Obama can rely on the
overwhelming support of America's black population who see in his candidature
now, a fulfilment, an acceptance of their place in American society. Gone
forever are the debates on whether Obama was "Black enough," and on
whether the fact that his blackness was Kenyan and not handed down from African
slaves, made him any less African-American.
And it is this overwhelming increase, in what is one of the most dependable
and sizeable constituencies for the Democratic Party, that is causing the
Democratic Party's establishment figures, the super-delegates, and their
biggest headache. It is not, as some have suggested, that the super-delegates
will act to overrule the party delegates and endorse a candidate who lost the
delegate race. Their problem is that black America and the majority of young
voters across America have come to identify with the Illinois Senator so much,
and have grown as a result so sensitive to the fact that like them he is an
outsider to the hidden levers of power, that any result that does not please
this group alienates the very revolution that would give the Democrats an
answer to the constant boost the Republican party enjoys from the religious
right.
The real threat now, is that a Hillary Clinton victory, especially an
imposition of her on the party by the super-delegates, or a decision for
example to count the delegates from Florida and Michigan and therefore tilt
results in her favour, or a victory won on the back of the ‘kitchen-sink strategy'
the Clintons now seem resolute in employing, will anger and frustrate the very
part of the electorate that could be most relied upon to canvass for the party
and build on a new movement that could rival the influence of Ronald Reagan for
the republicans. A national coalition consisting of Obama Republicans as an
answer to the Reagan Democrats of the 1980s and 1990s and with zeal as emphatic
as that of the bible-thumping religious right, is at stake if Obama is refused
this late in the game.
So it seems that Obama, the Illinois
prophet, whether they like him or not, is their man. He is the Democrat who
many polls still indicate would beat John McCain at the general election, the
one who brings together a movement to the party that will probably outlast him,
a coalition that has the potential to remodel American politics. But for all
the brickbats about a cult, Obama merely finds himself at the head of a
movement he can hardly control. Staff in hand, or not, there is no guarantee
that his coalition would follow him were he not the designated driver, or return their awesome fighting machine to the Democrats in subsequent years.
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If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nominations, the Democrats WILL lose the presidential elections. With absolute certainty.
If Obama wins the nominations, there remains a realistic chance that the Democrats may win the presidential elections too.
Draw your own conclusion.
(These Americans... so immature and so blind. *Sigh*
It's high time they were colonized by a benign civilized nation).
Alexander