But the President is old, and by all accounts has not recovered fully from the stroke he suffered just prior to the 2002 election. Second terms are unruly affairs with everyone jockeying for positions in the next administration and the opposition particularly truculent. Carrrots and sticks are not sufficient inducements in this climate, not from a lame duck.

His Vice President ,a fellow octogenarian, is unlikely to return to Parliament. Even if he does, he enjoys neither the charisma, voter backing nor constituency to launch a serious bid for State House. The powerful Minister of State John Michuki, FORD-People supreme Simeon Nyachae and the other Minister of State Njenga Karume are also likely in their final terms in office, although Karume has promised not to go without a fight.

It is in the light of this coming vaccum that the ouster of Mukhisa Kituyi as NARC-K Chairman should be seen. Unlike the ODM-K camp which has at least five nationally prominent, possible candidates for the Presidency, NARC-K would have no one if Mwai Kibaki was not running. At the time of Dr. Kituyi's ejection, the hand of Prof. George Saitoti was blamed. The rumor then being that the former Vice President, newly sanitized after his Goldenberg case, was mounting a campaign for permanent headship of the party. (It is widelyassumed that NARC-K is the chosen vessel on which those loyal to the Kibaki government will present itself to Kenya's voters.)

 The former Vice President Saitoti, if he can be further cleansed of the stain of Goldenberg would be an ideal candidate for NARC-K. He already enjoys nationwide name recognition, and persuading the public of his fitness for office would be easier than elevating a complete unknown (indeed many Kenyans had already assumed that he would be Moi' s successor). Opinion polls in June 2002 had shown that a Saitoti candidature, buoyed by his ethnic ambiguity and the inertia he would have enjoyed then, would have landed him a portion of the vote -even in KANU- equal to that which Kibaki ended up winning. The high price tag (said to be in the Ksh. 10 billion range) attached to a successful party campaign gives the Education Minister further advantage over any other pretenders to the throne. His extensive financial resources (it is said for example that he underwrote the entire NARC marketing budget for the 2002 election) and his contacts among Kibaki's inner court would stand him in good stead too. Other Central Kenya MPs who have been touted as possible candidates have included Kabete MP Paul Muite and Finance Minister Amos Kimunya, although neither of them are likely to enjoy anywhere near the status enjoyed by either Kibaki or of former Kiharu MP Kenneth Matiba.

With opinion polls suggesting an ODM-K victory in the Parliamentary Election ( regardless of Kibaki's likely win in the Presidential one) it is now exigent that a replacement is found for Awori. Such a candidate would need to bring on board enough in the way of votes and MPs to be useful in the campaign effort. The tribal nature of Kenyan politics and the particular phobia that the Moi Presidency bequeathed GEMA politics, demand that this candidate would however have to be non-Kikuyu but also weak enough to depend on the DP group for a sustained term in office should he or she succeed Kibaki mid-term. President Kibaki's real successor within the party then, is unlikely to be his running mate at the General Election.

It is for this reason that Trade Minister Kituyi was thought to be particularly attractive. Kituyi as running mate would draw votes away from ODM-K in Western Kenya and the North Rift, likely draw a few MPs away from Musikari Kombo's desperate FORD-K but still (much like Awori) lack the national stature to turn away from his masters in the event of a mid-term coronation -like Moi famously did in 1978. It has been suggested that the brash style of Kituyi was his undoing. Going against Saitoti publicly by saying, 'Prof Saitoti has not worn a Narc-K T-shirt to know how it feels when he announced his candidature,' did not go down well and suggested that Kituyi did not know his place. For the same brash style Health Minister Charity Ngilu, something of a maverick herself, is unlikely to be trusted with such a weighty responsibility and neither is the Local Government Minister Musikari Kombo. IWithin NARC-K itself, many others including Ministers Kivutha Kibwana and Kipruto Kirwa have thrown their hats in,

Some analysts have suggested that the fallout after the ODM-K nominations will serve President Kibaki with his running mate but this is even more unlikely than a Ngilu or Kituyi candidature. Even a defeated Kalonzo, Raila or Ruto would still have too large a power-base to be controlled.

Kituyi' s March replacement was the unknown Baringo East MP Asman Kamama, I would wager that he or an equally dull individual will be the next Vice President, anyone little will do. To paraphrase President Moi, NARC-K ina wenyewe.