I believe ODM have the 2007 Presidential and Parliamentary elections in the bag, well and truly sewn up. And more than that, I believe Raila Odinga will be Kenya's next President.
If you expected that this would turn into another of those encomiums so much beloved by the glory train that follows in Raila's wake, you will be disappointed. I intend to convey instead that ODM urgently need to fashion themselves into a respectable party, one which can turn Kenya around. To turn all the emotion into results, now.
Wanjiku expects:
That ODM will build a party structure, with real duties and responsibilities. ODM should not be, must not be seen to be Raila, na watu wake, which is what it is at the moment. The sight of Raila countermanding his Chairman and Secretary General ( in LDP) may reinforce a pleasant 'dear Leader' motif in the minds of his acolytes, this accompanied no doubt with warm feelings and a keen anticipation for his benevolent dictatorship. To those of us not yet converted, it reinforces the idea of Agwambo, the crusher of dissent, the bully; his-way-or-the-highway.
That ODM will strategise, build alliances and show confidence in its leaders. That they will allow independent thought and strive to create consensus through discussion rather than violence or bullying. The way the former NDP crowd has treated Kalonzo Musyoka is down-right shameful and precludes the involvement of other key national players in ODM. Is this what we will be treated to when ODM is the government? We have had enough of government infighting, thank you very much.
More, show some real love for the wananchi. Declare a visible difference in governance and delivery as ODM strongholds. What are ODM leaders doing in their regions that seperates them as sheep from Narc-K's goats? As de facto leader Raila ought to hold out as carrots positions in the coming government based not on tribal calculation, but on actual performance prior to the election. Ol Kalou may have given us CDF, but there's no reason why ODM cannot use it to make lives tangibly better in Amagoro, in Gatundu South or in Karachuonyo.
What of City Councils under ODM, i.e KANU or LDP leadership? These should be your campaign tools, an augury of the fruits of an ODM victory, a template upon which investors can base their plans. Kisumu's water and sewerage services are not treated or delivered by Minister Martha Karua, and neither is the running of schools in Mwingi dependent entirely on the largesse from the Ministry of Education. Does ODM really care for the mwananchi or is it just playing to the gallery? Show us, even a little token gesture from ODM MPs to counter that of President Kibaki in turning down a salary boost would light fires in our hearts.
Finally, show some imagination. There's people in this country ( shocking I know ) who do not believe football commentaries and funny parables should be major features on the repertoire of a 21st Century leader of a poor country like ours. Any real ideas? Is Raila also a purveyor of Vision 2030? Does he also believe in the kleptocracy that has seen all these privatisations cede our public wealth to Trans-Century? Anything new? Will Railla let Billow Kerrow govern the finances or will he resort to populism? Oh, pardon me, I'm being presumptuous. Will Raila allow the Finance Minister to do his job? What is the plan for energy? What is the plan for technology? What are you going to do when the land explosion meets you head-on?
What are we doing to ensure the peace in Somalia and in Sudan is lasting? Why are Somalis going to seek help in Nigeria? Why are the Sudanese going to South Africa? Does ODM realise that it will have all of NARC-K's dung on its lap on the first day of 2008?
Will the strife in Nairobi's slums end when NARC-K leaves office? Will all grudges be miraculously forgiven? What of the victims of rape and sexual exploitation in Laikipia? Do they not deserve ODM's sympathy?
The politics that believes in giving NARC-K yards of rope to betray its incomptence and hang us all will not work for Kenya. As ODM are not in governemnt, they must resist NARC-K for the good of the nation. They must start behaving like a government in waiting. NARC and Kibaki made us a thousand promises in 2002, and then got into office and found the Chair held too many other benefits, was plush and comfy; and 100 days to a new constitution became 4 years, and counting. 500,000 jobs may exist in some debilitated old minds, but our people are poorer in real terms than they were in 2002.
If ODM don't act now, we may be in for more of the same in 2007.
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I have long wondered like Stephen about the usefulness of ODM's strategy of trying to trip up the government. They obviously have no need to, and should not be working to improve Kibaki's record, but to stand in the way of developments that could very well wreck their time in office would be shooting themselves in the foot.
They would be well advised to remember that many of these measures take some time to show fruit, and it may be an ODM government that ends up taking credit for these developments. Just as we have seen Kibaki's government credited with many reformsinititated by the Moi one.
The issue of Sudan and Somalia seems to me especially urgent. We cannot, absolutely cannot afford to have anything but a peaceful Somalia. Not just because its insecurity is our insecurity, but also because it will preclude the advancement of our steadily improving tourist numbers, and will result in our diverting to security matters, funds that would be badly needed for infrastructure development.
More,Sudan's planned pipeline, the one coming to an end in Lamu will be a target far too close to the trouble to put in harm's way. Even further, the new markets of Sudan and Somalia are a great boon to Kenyan mercantilism insofar as we will have almost untramelled growth opportunities in serving countries that are rebuilding almost from scratch.
I hope Kenyan industry and politicians can get together and recognise the UIC in Somalia and bring to a quick end Ethiopia's involvement there. On the Sudanese side also, we must do everything to defend the nascent southern government, ensure that by the time they hold their referendum on secession, we are their very best friendand ally in the world.