As it stands ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu's figures show ODM candidate Raila Odinga in the lead by about 40,000
votes with 18 constituencies left. Those constituencies are mostly in Ukambani where the incumbent is splitting votes with Kalonzo Musyoka.
Another large figure is expected from Gatundu South, Uhuru Kenyatta's Thika District Constituency. Kamukunji and Kajiado North appear cancelled. Hence Kibaki as per ECK has won this election.
Even my pro-PNU friends concede that the elections have been rigged. The grand old strategy of delaying results in areas where final tallies can be passed as realistic appears to have been used to catapult a candidate ahead. It can be nothing short of suspicious that a country awards a president the popular vote while rejecting well over two thirds of his inner circle and over-whelmingly placing his opponents as the majority lawmakers. Samuel Kivuitu appears fatigued and anxious to call it a day. If, that is, his utterances of "I am ready to die" are anything to go by.
He is now referring all complaints to the courts after the elections. It has happened. So now where do we go from here:
a) Raila Odinga stages a coup. He tried before, so he can do it again. I hope it doesn't go that way as Kenya will no longer be a democratic country (not that it really is) and the pursuit of power, however justified, is rarely worth the amount of bloodshed associated with such endeavours. No one after all can tell where such an effort once begun may end up.
b) The Electoral Commission of Kenya fails to reach a unanimous verdict and a runoff ensues. Does not seem likely to happen also seeing as the commission is heavily stacked with Kibaki appointees. Kivuitu seems to be the hope of the opposition but he lately appears disillusioned and unwilling to stand alone. He appears eager to announce final results and check their validity later. ODM pointed out that the Meru results came without the signed authenticated mandatory form which he didn't deny but decided to look into later.
Garsen MP Danson Mungatana claims some ECK commissioners are meeting Raila at a hotel to somehow affect results. I do not think there is much to this allegation. Besides, it appears the constitutional requirements for a runoff seem to be only failure by all candidates to meet the treble criteria to be declared Commander in Chief.
c) Vote of no confidence against the President in parliament immediately after the it is convened. Unlikely. It is likely that Kalonzo Musyoka and the ODM-K will quickly team up and horse trade with PNU considering the burnt bridges with his original orange colleagues. Mutula Kilonzos utterances at the Kivuitu briefing to the effect that the chairman should announce the results and ignore the Pentagon's "sideshows" are a clear indication of that intent. ODM-Kenya aside, it is my understanding that even if ODM has numbers large enough to vote out Kibaki, a vote of no confidence would mean that MPs have to recontest their seats. Again, I stand to be corrected.
d) Our elections are condemned internationally as having been rigged, our country heads the Zimbabwe route and Kibaki bows to pressure and resigns. That will probably happen....in our wildest dreams. Power means everything here and the ability to have an effective and respected
government probably lies towards the bottom of the parties' lists of priorities. Besides EU Observers held a press conference yesterday saying they have not seen any evidence of rigging although they intend to look into areas reporting unusually high turnouts.
What I see happening is riots like we had in 1992. Already people in Kisumu are looting like the biblicals embarking upon descending manna. A lot of property will be destroyed, a few lives will be lost,international attention will be drawn and business will grind to a standstill. Raila Odinga will hold a press conference, many press conferences, go to court with a battalion of good lawyers but lose based on the rulings of President Kibaki's appointees.
Ethnic animosisties will be like they have never been before with the losers feeling aggrieved and working unceasingly to hand the winners a crushing defeat at the next election. Eventually things will calm down and Kenyans will learn to live with an unpopular leader, they did it comfortably for 24 years, they can do it for another five.
Raila will live to fight another day, he will struggle to keep the ODM together but with his money, popular support in the Rift Valley and Western Kenya, he would be nothing short of favourite come the next general election.
Of course this posting could be irrelevant as Raila may very well be declared president today. Again that is likely to happen...in our wildest dreams.
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I just received a text message from a usually credible source in Nairobi...
Anyone else have any word?
-Silaha