The key perhaps is in history. Certain things tend to remain the same irrespective of the time or surrounding events. Taking the polls and matching them against the 2002 voter turnout makes for very interesting reading expecially when you tweak the turnout for obvious changes on account of the different candidates this time around. 

Is it possible for a Kibaki victory and especially if you use the Steadman Polls released yesterday? It is not going to be an easy win, and the margin may very well be miniscule, even 1% but it can be done. Here is how.

Take the Steadman Group poll result on a per province basis. Next take the 2002 voter turnout - irrespective of who people voted for. And now comes the tricky bit loaded of course with my assumptions:

Raila Odinga

As Raila Odinga will be a candidate in this election, I expect that the turnout in Nyanza will rise by 11% to 65% from the 56% in 2002. Note that there was a huge turnout in the Gusii districts on account of Nyachae being a candidate. I am assuming the increase this time is driven by Raila's candidature.

In Central Province, I assume that there will only be a 9% rise in turnout increasing to 75% from 66% five years ago. This will be on account of the general feeling of isolation and peril in Central Kenya this year. The high turnout in 2002 was on account of the fact that there were 2 Central Kenyan candidates and now we only have one, so it is only the heat of the moment that will boost turnout.

The Kalonzo factor as well as Mt Kenya sentiment will increase the turnout to 65% from 61% but since Steadman has already taken care of Kalonzo in this poll, then the increase will be proportionately spreadout.

Nairobi province has seen a great increase in voter registration. My view is that there will be a lot more people who normally do not vote but will go out this time and vote Kibaki. So I am increasing voter turnout by 13% to 52% from 42 in 2002. I am however maintaining a Raila lead of 46% against Kibaki's 43% for Nairobi.

In the case of Rift Valley province, I think the turnout of 68% in 2002 was Moi inspired so I am factoring in that inspiration and estimating that the turn -out this time will be 65% as I do not think there is that much electoral excitement and incentive to go to the vote. Note that even if I retained the turnout at 68% Kibaki would still have a marginal lead.

In both Coast and Western provinces, I do not think there is a sufficient shift in fundamentals that would affect the overall voter turnout. In 2002, NARC had the overall lead in the election with a Wamalwa for VP candidate whilst in 2007 we have Western province overwhelmingly going for Raila with  Mudavadi as the Vice Presidential candidate. There is nothing to show that the voter turnout will be any different in Coast.

Finally on North Eastern Province. My thinking is that there will be a lower turnout and I am marking this for 55% this year against 58% for 2002. As in the case of Rift Valley (and even if we retained the Rift Valley turnout) President Kibaki will still come out top with a margin of some 40,000 votes.

So on an overall basis if my assumptions are correct, then Kibaki would win the vote 3,612,469 against Raila's 3,540,394. As the Steadman people said yesterday, what is important is to get people to go out and vote!

For a larger rendering of this chart, please click here , or here for a larger chart tracking the changes since the September 28th poll, click here .

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written by abdulmote , October 27, 2007

Kamale,

I am sorry but I feel as if your hypothesis are a complete wishful thinking! Nothing worthy of consideration there but only your fear is explained. It appears as if you are also beginning to confront the very real possibility that Raila is going to win!

Mind you, there is nothing to excite me about a Raila win although any change of guard in Kenya may just offer our great nation with a stronger hope for a positive change. However, whether that happens to be the case, time only will be the judge but personally I am not optimistic about Kenyan politicians at all! What of the variety of hyenas defecting from one side to another and more being invited in waiting for the loot?

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Tribal maths is the only way
written by Rv Pundit , October 27, 2007

Your assumptions are spot on however applied on provincial percentage(which I'm suspecting you did) you'll get your biased conclusion. Having examined voter registration & turn out in details since 92,97,02 and the referendum I came to this conclusion!

1)Highest voter registration & turn out: Kalenjin have always had 80% & above turn out..the main reason for Rift Valley's 65%-68%.Most of Kalenjin regions post turn out of 90%! So be careful how you apply the voter turn-outs % on this complex province

2) Second Group(65%): Kikuyus(65%)both in Central & diaspora and South Nyanza(Luos)!

3) Third Group(55-60%): Central Nyanza(luos)& Eastern GEMA

4) Foruth Grp(50-55%):Ukambani
5) Below 50% but above 40%: Luhyas, Coast,Gusii
6) Below 40%: NEP

Unless you basis is tribal maths, the prov breakdown is fallacy esp in Nyanza(Gusii is low turn out & reg region ever since 92),Western (Sabaoti(kaleos) have high turn out of 80%) unlike Luhyas 40%,RV(KAMATUS+Kikuyu+BUKUSU)will/have had different turn outs, Coast(urban vs rural),Nairobi(low turn out,few women voters,hell of confusion due to importation)!

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Kibaki likely to win
written by Lelei , October 27, 2007

The group in the ODM should realistically be giving every Kenyan a sleepless night; they are a team with a collective weakness. It is strange how we all align ourselves to salute them while none of them have any track record of an achievable measurable success even at a micro level of society despite being in office for more than two decades. It is agreeable we need change but not from a slight good to a probable very bad orange.

The Steadman has shown Kibaki’s popularity has gone up by 3% while Raila’s has dipped by 3% although the values may be perceived to fall within the margins of error, it could turnout to be very significant should Kibaki increase his margin by between 3 to 6% in the regions especially, North Eastern, Coast and Rift valley. This conversion is very realistic and achievable depending on what theme they adopt in the campaigns; it appears they are starting to hit the correct buttons. Raise a reasonable doubt on the credibility of the ODM chiefs based on their track record, which are mostly filled with the dead skeletons of the nation institutions causing a strangulation of the people’s source of revenue.

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Interesting Demographics
written by InSidious , October 27, 2007

The victor must have 25% of the vote in at least 5 of the 8 Provinces. I fail to see, especially given your arithmetic, how Kibaki can prevail. He needs a significant turn around but then again, did the government not purchase voter registration rolls from ECK for key Constituencies? I wonder, is this aimed at duplicate registration and hence disenfranchising the voter? And by they way, it would be criminal.

Be that as it may, statistics can be used to spin whatever message you intend to convey. The difference however and perhaps what is infallible is the overall mood across the country. Defending Kibaki’s record is increasingly flattering on the impossible even for his efferent lieutenants. No surprise is in the offing.

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Possible BUT UNLIKELY
written by Jaluth MaSoko , October 27, 2007

any thing is possible. i mean kiraitu just tried to assasinate raila. his body guards gun was at the crime scene where hooligans in meru tried to cause a stampede and in the process shoot at raila. it was foiled. if raila dies the PNU candidate can win. but it will be a pyhrric victory because i can assure you rwanda part 2 would be occurring as i write this

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written by Timothy Wainaina , October 28, 2007

He needs a significant turn around but then again, did the government not purchase voter registration rolls from ECK for key Constituencies? I wonder, is this aimed at duplicate registration and hence disenfranchising the voter? And by they way, it would be criminal.

On the contrary, this is an altogether astute move, aimed at countering double registration. Which is as you say criminal!

Jaluth
You seem to be suggesting that this is what ODM wants? Another Rwanda? Listening to Raila's adui talk, I am reminded of the similar sentiments in Rwanda. It is the same thing when you hear the talk about drug-dealers and swindlers on the NSE. ODM with their Majimbo, and anti-GEMA talk are the ones bringing on the Rwanda.
It is now upto every Kenyan to save his country, even the good people in ODM, even ODM-K, this election has taken on a much graver tone, it is about our survival as a peaceful nation. Look at what people understand Majimbo to mean.

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Consolation is good
written by Abdullah , October 28, 2007

It was Voltaire who quipped: "The great consolation in life is to say what one thinks." The figures you raised and the garbled argument that you indulged in will send a child crushing to the ground out of a hysterical laugh. It makes me wonder how desperation can cause such sleepless nights! May be for consolation. Yes, consolation is good, it gives you a peace of mind when you engage in your own whimsical imaginations and flattery, no wonder Martin Luther said: "In our sad condition, our only consolation is the expectancy of another life. Here below all is incomprehensible.” Your augment was your convenient thought, that your momentary consolation. However, I must say it negates every imagination and also shows bad calculation. The stakes are higher in every region, much more than what you purported in your undertaking. Praying that Nyanza will vote 65% may give you momentary consolation, but it is better than none. Arguing that NEP will vote 48%, (I don't to whom) though I know someone will sweep close to 80% of its votes can also spare you the agony you feel in your heart for now. Saying that Kalenjins will sleep and note vote since they have nothing to lose (as if they should vote only if a Kalenjin is standing) may add to your ecstasy for now as well. It will be between 80-90% in some regions, make no mistake about it and the one who is waiting for tomorrow, tomorrow is nigh! Kalenjins have everything to lose and I live in Kalenjin land though originally I’m from North Eastern. I know how high the stakes are here.


Leaving that aside, those tribal demagogues who are saying Raila ni adui, should tell Kenyans that he was also adui when he campaigned for Kibaki in 2002. No wonder Murungaru was unable to answer a question that asked: "Why is Raila bad today but when he campaigned for Kibaki, he was a hero?" He was on KASS FM appealing to the Kalenjins not to abandon Kibaki at the hour of need, but it is too late because they have adopted Raila Arap Mibei. This Jacobean mentality that I either have it, or the rest are devils will be buried for good, so that we all create a Kenya that can breastfeed its children. The writer ignored many factors that will tilt the votes and jumped over many realities in blind pursuit of his own figment of imagination. Still, I don't blame him because the prospect of Raila's presidency is making him gripped by schizophrenic crisis. It was Gertrude Stein who quipped: "To know what one knows is frightening to live what one lives is soothing and though everybody likes to be frightened what they really have to have is soothing." Suffice that many Kenyans of all tribes, clans, regions creeds, colours, cultures and backgrounds are not scared to be led by Raila because as a son of this nation, he has applied for the job and submitted his papers, Kenyans are scrutinising them, and if they find his papers to be in order, they will him the job.

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Mr.Wainaina, take the veil off
written by InSidious , October 28, 2007

To imply that purchasing key Constituencies’ voter rolls is astute is just as insidious as suggesting Central Provinces hatred for Raila is issue driven.

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hate too strong a word
written by Jardene Waya , October 28, 2007

Insidious, your commentary is never dull or far from the truth. However you are wrong in your intepretation this time.

"Central province" do not hate Raila. He was but a few years ago here a Njamba, ama? The leaders of central are guilty of many many things.......

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Great Analysis
written by cogni , October 29, 2007

Kamale
Your solid analysis makes for interesting reading. The numbers are clear for those willing to face facts. Its disappointing that those who feel threatened by your analysis have resorted to infantile name calling. A little factual debunking would have been much more useful than the moronic taunts. RV Pundit to his credit has provided a very sober counter point. My only regret is that RV Pundit did not indicate the source of his tribal breakdown of the regional turnout numbers. It looks like this election will be hinged on tribal sentiment and regional voter turnout could mask the far more important tribal turnout numbers. I'm also not convinced that in this election Kalenjins will maintain their traditional high turnout numbers.

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written by OYEH , October 29, 2007

[Comment deleted by Moderator]

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written by Amir Ibrahim , October 29, 2007

Insidious,
Are you trying to stir-up foment? If you live in Europe, I think you will find that you too have access to the voter rolls. PNU did not hide the fact that their mitts were on those papers, feel free to report them to the police if you think a law was broken, no one else does, not even Mibei.

Abdullah,
I am not sure I am hearing right. Kamale's article is intended as analysis, he declares his assumptions and attempts to explain them. Maybe you could try and take this, the grown-up path?

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written by Kamale , October 29, 2007

RV Pundit,

The reason I did not use the 1997 turnouts is because the fundamentals then were no where near those of 2002 or even today. I also deliberately refused to use the 2005 Referendum turnout for the simple reason the reasons people went out to vote are no comparable to those in an election. A good example is perhaps the voter turn out in Central for the Referendum was very low while it is expected that it will be much higher for these elections for obvious reasons. For instance, is the support by Moi in Rift Valley for the NO vote a reason for the high turnout in Rift Valley? Is it also possible that in 1997, the high turn out in Rift Valley was to ensure a Moi election and hence my allocation of higher turnouts in both Central and Nyanza holds true for these elections?

I was a bit careful in not trying to bring the analysis to granular tribal arithmetic as that in my view is represented sufficiently in the provincial arithmetic.

Abdullah

Please try and rubbish the figures and assumptions.....I am not praying, I am just being realistic! In 1997, the average voter turn out in Nyanza was 66% when Raila was a presidential candidate. If you take the area called Luo Nyanza, the turnout was 70% with the highest constituency being 75% and the lowest constituency having a 58% turnout.

Finally, my assumptions on the tweaking may be wrong, but there is one thing that is clear - it is the candidate that manages to get his voters to GO OUT and VOTE that will win the day! The polls cannot control that!

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written by Timothy Wainaina , October 29, 2007

ODM has never been strong on reason. There will be repurcussions from Raila's dictatorial ways on the Nyanza vote. We can be sure of that. Let's say for example (as is the tradition in some parts of the country) that people go to blows at the nomination stage. Then Raila intervenes and puts the next Tuju into office, what happens then? Supporters of the righteous candidate stay away on election day, and Raila's Nyanza vote is diminished.

I am not surpised at the ODM reaction though. A few weeks ago they were criticising PNU leaders fro encouraging a high turnout in Central Kenya.

RV Pundit,
There were great irregularities in the Rift Valley in 1992 and 1997, some even say in 2002. There were places with eye-poppingly high voter turn-outs, remember?

It is not unreasonable to expect that the panic of Majimbo will lead to even more Kisii and Kikuyu voters than ever before; and these votes for the government. Remember fear is the greatest motivator, greater even than the greed of the salivating morons egged on by Ntimama or Balala.

Kamale,
One thing that the government will have to do is ensure total tranquil in frontline areas like Molo, Burnt Forest, Cherangani and so on. In these places, clashes may be instigated to keep PNU supporters away from the polls.

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The turn out dillema!
written by RV Pundit , October 29, 2007

What motivates people to vote?What will make a voter deep in Njabini/ kericho/ Garissa village to withstand bad weather(rain,sun etc),long queues and even the whole polling process! Fear & Hope.I agree with Kamalet that Central(GEMA) and Luo Nyanza will turn out in large numbers to vote!
Nyanza has shown indications of high turn out..for the first time ever, they overtook Eastern in the new voters(Aug 2007 registrations) and led(nationally) in the numbers of voters who inspected the voter registers.
Western prov followed in numbers of guys who inspected the registers( Sept/Oct 2006) perhaps after ODM nomination despite their low voter registrations (50% of ID card holders are not registered voters)..may'be an indicator that Western will turn out in large numbers!
Central prov have had average voter registration (65% of ID card holder are registered voters) and inspection of registers.Central has had strong presidential candidate before (1997 esp)however their turn out has always been an average of 65%. With the turn out campaign currently on in central % may increase by 5%-10%..though unlike Nyanza[refer above] their has been no indication.Just like other kenyans some central(say 30%) have a bone to pick with Kibaki gov..Mungiki victims / squatters/ poor(30% of central) / bitter mau mau /unsettled clash victims/jobless youths will most likely stay away from voting than say vote ODM/ODM-K instead of PNU.
RVP(my home prov)has always had high voter registrations (95%-110% of ID cards holders are registered voters)and huge voter registration since 92 (including the referendum). It got nothing to do with MOi(who is past tense in the current dispensation)! The real REASON is Tribal hostility due to it cosmopolitans nature.After tribal clashes in 92,voting in RVP means hell lots things (getting evicted, killed, economically sabotaged for all tribes etc) so people really vote...no need for mobilization.Rigging in RVP, yes but it account for 3%-5% of total votes!In polarized election (all of them(referendum incl) except 2002 there were rigging..during the referendum Banana agents(who supported NO but wanted to get paid) could overlook voting anomalies..but it account for less than 5% total votes.1992..ballot box stuffing and all sort of tricks Moi could pull.1997..The additional voting day(after Moi found the numbers too shaky) was pure rigging..wakina Kones went round with public address asking people to go back and vote again till all ECK materials were finished.In 2002 there was minimal/no rigging..voters were divided right in the middle.This election seems polarized and i expect some rigging (mainly by agents & local eck voting staff)!
Still on RVP..as Wainaina indicated some places esp 92/97 tribal clash hotspots like Molo/Kuresoi/Burnt forest/Narok many people won't be able to vote [nay to live] due to politically instigated violences..so turnout will go down.Infact even thousands of tea /sisal workers in Kericho/Nandi won't be allowed to vote..leaflets will soon emerge 'kila mtu kwao' message!
NEP,COAST,Upper Eastern will continue with dismal voter registration and turn out. 50% of ID card holders don't posses the voting card with 50% of that[25% eligible voters) actually vote.

The tricky is though for Kibaki & other guys hoping for turn out miracle is this..ECK HAS INCREASED [DOUBLED] THE NO S OF POLLING STATIONS..so less distance to travel & no queues [

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written by Kamale , October 29, 2007

Why and how did tribal clashes drive away potential voters? Because that was a government fronted project in 1997 and 1992. The current clashes and those planned in these areas are instigated by persons now in opposition and the government would probably deal with these a lot more firmly to ensure that they do not lose potential voters.

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Issues?
written by Magothe , October 29, 2007

Despite, the maths, I am still convinced that because Kenyans can and do use their brains, Raila won't be our president. Heard the latest from Meru? Ati because GoK owns 75% of KQ, he promised the Meru that the KQ wwill be carrying Miraa for export.

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RV - u did veyr well
written by mimimzalendo , October 29, 2007

ur response to Kamale was spot on.

even our MOAR weekly updated sheets confirm some factors.

its this "ostrich in the sand" syndrome thats going to case shocks.

better be aware and ready to battle.

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Manipulating Fear
written by InSidious , October 29, 2007

Magothe,
The issue of rational is not simply isolated to Central Province especially going by the rowdy mob akin to Nyachaes taunt (Chinkoro Mob) of the Opposition. If you hit the ground, you will perhaps appreciate the fact that despite desolation in many communities, many would like to be part of a better Kenya. Unlike the uncivilized Norman Nyaga

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Kibaki can still win
written by Ralph , October 30, 2007

Yeah, Kibaki still has a chance. Two months is a long time in politics. That's why ODM has to keep up the pressure.

I hope he doesn't regain and he loses though. Kibaki has performed poorly and he needs to be sent packing.

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written by aeichener , October 31, 2007

Yes, he should be sent packing.

But can you vote into office with good conscience a pack of notoriously corrupt criminals who in almost all respects are going to be worse?

I know I couldn't. And it is this bad choice between an under-performer and change for the worse, that ails me.

Alexander

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what ?
written by kane , October 31, 2007

Dude how did you calculate your assumptions and how did you arrive at those figures.
You are a speculator, a quack and a fake.
KI should demand higher quality from you.

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Honey, Diana, Ajiambo
written by Kyle , November 04, 2007

[Comment deleted by Moderator]

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politics is local
written by new day , November 05, 2007

In 2002, Kibaki scored 3,647,658 votes (61.3%) against Uhuru with 1,836,055 (20%). The voter turn out at the end was 56.1% (5,863,472 votes). According to the Steadman Poll estimate (disregarding who gets how much), 8,171,385 total reflects a 63% turn-out. This implies a difference of an astounding 2,307,913 votes (newly registered + mobilization). Therefore, this means that Kibaki's results for 2002 (3.6m) would still be insufficient for him to stay confident of winning this time, since the stakes have risen to an estimate of atleast 9M.

On Majimbo: Why is PNU climbing the roof tops to demonize a devolved system of Gvt, by saying that if adopted it will divide the country along tribal lines and deny other people access to some areas. If what happened in Meru last weekend is anything to go by, what worse form of 'majimbo' can we ever have? New Day.

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re: Interesting Demographics
written by Jimmy , November 12, 2007

The victor must have 25% of the vote in at least 5 of the 8 Provinces. I fail to see, especially given your arithmetic, how Kibaki can prevail. He needs a significant turn around but then again, did the government not purchase voter registration rolls from ECK for key Constituencies? I wonder, is this aimed at duplicate registration and hence disenfranchising the voter? And by they way, it would be criminal.

Be that as it may, statistics can be used to spin whatever message you intend to convey. The difference however and perhaps what is infallible is the overall mood across the country. Defending Kibaki

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by all means
written by new day , November 20, 2007

Interesting observation: PNU is using this slogan, pasted on most citi hoppa buses in Nairobi,'Vote for change that you can see'. Obviously riding on the wind of change as witnessed in recent times, and using lexicology to confuse voters.

Now according to recent polls by consumer insight, Kibaki has turned the tables on Raila and is leading with 45 percent followed by Raila with 40 percent. This contrasts with infotrack opinion polls that show Raila still well ahead. The pollsters, put to question, claimed that they changed methodologies from using total population sampling to actual voters per area. Next time guys, share your criteria BEFORE you give us your results.

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Reliability of opinion polls
written by Jackson Kiprotich , November 28, 2007

All the 4 opinion polls released 23-24 show Raila leading,though with mixed results.

I have not been to my rural home in Keiyo South for some time,though when I call my folks,they allude it is SIGNIFICANTLY ORANGE across the Rift Valley.They say ODM may bag some 70%-80% of the expansive vote.

So,I am not so sure whether the pollsters only sample households in the district hubs or delve into the in-depth regions where the votes lie.

It appears it is gonna be an ODM Govt-a lead in 6/8 provinces,most popular party with a likely house majority.

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Wow, Coincidentally...
written by Silaha , January 12, 2008

... I independently undertook a similar analysis prior to the election and arrived at a similar conclusion -- that Kibaki was going to squeak by with a margin of 200K.

I think this election has underscored the value of opinion polls, while they are not perfect or infallible they are indispensable tools for those campaigning.

-Silaha

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