Election Irregularities

Both Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki received approximately four million votes and in meeting with the predictions of opinion polls, there was not much more than 200,000 to 300,000 votes between them either way.  Indeed, it was Raila’s assertion, prior to the release of the results by the ECK, that Mwai Kibaki wouldsteal about 200,000 votes but would come in just behind ODM.

The 300,000 figure (the higher limit) is about 3.3% of the votes cast.  It is not unreasonable to assume that the inflation of ODM figures in their areas of strength (as has been shown repeatedly to have happened) could also easily fall within 3% of the total votes cast. This manipulation is likely to have happened before figures were recorded onto Forms 16A, especially as the lack of opposition agents in these areas meant that ODM had unfettered access to such methods of electoral fraud.  In the absence of  PNU agents it is necessary that independent organisations stand in to give us these figures, for example, local or foreign observers.

At this stage it is almost without dispute that there was rigging in PNU’s favour of the sort mentioned in Molo, which consisted of changing the figures recorded on Form 16A.  It is likely that the total impact of this vote manipulation to the advantage of the PNU would also fall within the 3%. Strangely however, Raila was recently reported in the Nation newspaper claiming that Kibaki’s votes were inflated by over one million.  I am personally doubtful of the validity of this number as it would mean that Mwai Kibaki ended the election with a count of about 3.5 million only - a number that is not only inconsistent with the wealth of votes he harvested from Central and Eastern Kenya, but also ignorant of the very high turnout experienced in Central Kenya.

So who won the election? I do not know, no one really knows. The ODM and some of its supporters have been claiming that the statements of the foreign press, Kivuitu and Amos Wako prove that Kibaki 'stole' the election, but the truth is, with all the reported irregularities and the closeness of the election, it is impossible to tell who really won the December 27th vote.

To put a firm answer to this question would have required an immediate recounting of the votes (impossible given transportation and vote integrity issues as witnessed in the 1992 elections) or an auditing of the Form 16As by the ECK (this would help uncover the later rigging while acquitting the earlier methods. One interesting mystery is ODM’s assertion over several days that they had collected a total of 4.2 million votes, yet the final ECK announcement ascribed 4.3 million votes to the ODM .

Outbreak of violence

Even had President Kibaki won the election fairly or by a larger margin, there would certainly still have been riots.  The ODM did not prepare its following for the possibility of losing the election. In fact they primed them towards an outright rejection of a Kibaki win, preaching that any such result would be indicative of electoral fraud.

So it is not for the irregular manner of Kibaki's victory that we have blood in the streets, rather people are rioting because of the Kikuyu factor.  (I must apologise for all the Kikuyus who have been responsible for bringing this country to such a woeful place, whether in the ECK or around Kibaki.)  Still, the facts speak for themselves. The ODM galvanised half the nation around the logic that since Kibaki is a Kikuyu and Kikuyus are thieves, are corrupt and are against devolution thus keeping you from getting your right and just share of national wealth, it follows that Kikuyus are bad and that Kibaki must go.  Kibaki Toka!  This strategy worked overwhelmingly in five provinces giving the ODM a massive one hundred seats in parliament.

There is similar non-tolerance in the Kenyan blogosphere and Internet forums for anyone who does not support the ODM, the logic being that the overwhelming majority of  the four million plus votes cast for Kibaki were Kikuyu (president of one tribe) and that Kibaki did not garner a significant number of votes in the rest of the country.

Finding a solution will be difficult if the leaders stick to their dug-in positions.  Raila Odinga seems so intransigent he is unwilling to stop insisting that Kibaki step down. The president on his part, and he is supported in this by Archbishop Tutu, insists that the ODM and Raila first accept that there is a governing authority in Kenya. We will keep praying for greater flexibility and a faster resolution, for heaven knows we need a peace, and we need it fast.

The way forward

It now behoves the head of state to take charge, to reach out to the opposition and to bend over backwards to accomodate them. It is important that he has made concessions regarding the composition of government, but he must also find a way to have the ODM leave any such talks with an element of pride.

The ODM on its part must stop talking about Kibaki as having the support of only one or two tribes.  The effects of this strategy are already visible around the country and it is most important that the leaders who inspired this seperation, whether in the ODM or in other parties, work hard to heal the divide.

Third, rallies must be held in all regions of this country to persuade the people to calm down and to desist from wrecking the very economies of their regions.  I laud the actions of KISS and Citizen radio stations, and of the mainstream newspapers to this end. 

Finally, politicians must realise that there is for each side one half of the country that is represented by the other. This little fact means that it is impossible for the one side to vanquish the other except by destroying the nation. Such ideas as the  Million Man March rallies and the like do not help promote harmony and a return to some semblance of unity. What they do instead is bring us closer and closer to confrontation. Remember both sides could call four million person rallies! 

Here is an idea, Mwai Kibaki should sit down with Raila Odinga and negotiate. Mwai Kibaki says “Give me the Banana constitution and I will give you the Presidency.”  Handshake. Done.