Raila missing
written by concerned voter , December 27, 2007

Apparently, the ODM candidate cannot find his name on the voter register. This has the writings of mayhem all over it! The ECK lists have been available since September, but it seems everyone neglected to check if the man had his name on the register!

Raila claims it is not just him, that all names beginning in A and O are not on the register!

even more
written by concerned , December 27, 2007

Kenya: Raila Storms Nairobi Hotel Over Election Rigging Claim

The Nation (Nairobi)




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The Nation (Nairobi)

27 December 2007
Posted to the web 27 December 2007

Nairobi

Presidential candidate Raila Odinga was one of those who stormed a city hotel Wednesday on allegations that some individuals were buying voter's cards.

But when the ODM presidential candidate arrived at Ngong Hills Hotel, there were no such people.

He said he had been called to the hotel by an aide over suspicious goings-on.

Mr Odinga said Kenyans would not accept the outcome of the flawed elections. He, however, cautioned his supporters against engaging in violence.

The presidential candidate claimed there were indications that the Government planned to rig today's elections.

Meanwhile, the Party of National Unity Wednesday asked the ECK to suspend voting in areas marked by violence.

The party claimed its rivals were using violence to prevent people from parts of Nyanza Province and those in Nairobi's Lang'ata constituency from voting.

"Systematic efforts are afoot to prevent people from voting. And some people have already been lynched," said PNU national campaign manager George Nyamweya who addressed a news conference at the party's headquarters in Nairobi. He was accompanied by other party leaders.

The PNU leaders pointed out three incidents where people were lynched by a mob in Mbita and Nyatike constituencies in Nyanza Province.

Violence continued Wednesday where more people were killed in Suba, Homa Bay and Rachuonyo districts by people Mr Nyamweya insisted were ODM supporters.

Another incident occurred in Kibera in Lang'ata constituency where 20-year-old Adam Mohammed was stabbed to death.

In Nyanza, three APs were killed after alighting from a bus, which was ferrying 99 others. They were killed by people who, it was claimed, were suspicious of their motives.

Violence has since spilled over to other areas, including Kisii.

"In these areas, there is enough evidence that elections will not be free and fair if those who are not known by the locals will not be allowed to vote," Mr Nyamweya said. He added that ECK had powers to suspend elections in the affected areas until order was restored.

In a rejoinder, ODM secretary-general Prof Anyang' Nyong'o dismissed the PNU statement.

"This cannot happen. We need as many people as possible to vote, and whoever claims that we shall prevent some voters from casting their votes is stupid," Prof Nyong'o said.
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Mr Nyamweya said ECK should assure people that it was capable of conducting the elections, if it did not suspend elections in these areas.

Kibaki Tena lobby termed the violence as primitive, saying they were a pointer of what kind of a government the ODM would form if they won the elections.

Mr Nyamweya also denied that the APs in Mbita are PNU agents. "We have our own agents who have already been deployed to all the constituencies."

more concerned
written by concerned voter , December 27, 2007

explanation
written by concerned voter , December 27, 2007

The ECK seems to explaining that they wanted to make queues shorter in the voting stations so everyone could finish on time. So they tried to spread people around, but did not tell them this thing.

Now the voters have been told, but they say they want to vote where they had known all along.

Ballot paper mix up as elections begin.
Written By:Beverly Gatimu , Posted: Thu, Dec 27, 2007

As the voting exercise began in most polling stations countrywide, various incidences of ballot paper mix-up were reported.

Eldoret North Constituency parliamentary ballot papers were Thursday morning found at Ndabibi polling station in Naivasha.

Naivasha Constituency Returning Officer, Christopher Anjele said he had contacted the ECK headquarters to find out where the ballot papers for Ndabibi Center were.

He said the ECK was making urgent arrangements to have the Eldoret North ballot papers retuned to the right polling station.

The two leading parliamentary contenders in the constituency, Jayne Kihara and John Mututho expressed shock at the delay and confusion.

Meanwhile, confusion reigned at Isinya polling station in Kajiado North constituency following a ballot paper mix-up.

Ballot papers for the area were mixed up with those for Changamwe constituency.

It is alleged the center's returning officer went underground following the mix-up.

Elsewhere, Parliamentary and civic ballot papers for Kipipiri constituency were found in Ganze constituency of Kilifi early an anomaly, which compelled voters to be directed to alternative polling centres.

Ganze constituency deputy returning officer Everline Mutta confirmed the incident saying they were addressing the problem.

She said voters who turned up at Sosodemu nursery-polling centre could not vote for parliamentary and civic candidates after the presiding officer discovered the anomaly.

However, ballot papers for presidential candidates were cast.

In Nyando, there was also a mix up at Ogeche polling center, where parliamentary ballot papers meant for Butere constituency were found in Nyando and those for Nyando found in Butere.

correspondents\' reports
written by jaya wardene , December 27, 2007

The bbc website has correspondents sending in reports from various parts....those whose names were not on register were allowed to vote if they produced ID and voter's card...or so it is said
Link here

Watching Kenyan TV Live
written by Silaha , December 27, 2007

Hey all:

I am following the election live on KBC the URL is http://www.jumptv.com/en/channel/kbc/ -- I am, unfortunately, outside Kenya right now. (And, importantly, I'm in a place with broadband).

I spoke with some folks in NBO and the stream is only about 1 minute behind what they're watching.

Obviously, I am not affiliated with KBC other than the fact that I own it -- along with 35 million other people (it is government owned.)

I am also totally unaffiliated with JumpTV.

This is one heck of an election.

For those in Kenya, if you haven't voted already, GO VOTE! and vote wisely.

-Silaha

updates
written by concerned voter , December 27, 2007

The national stations are running a continuous update, not very helpful so far, but here we go

KTN (local time 20:20)
Raila 14019
Kibaki 6630
Kalonzo 374

Nation TV Local time 20:29
Raila 5419 (56%)
Kibaki 3959 (40.9%)
Kalonzo 191 (2%)

turnout
written by concerned voter , December 27, 2007

I do not know which side will be favoured by high turnouts, but they have been truly amazing, in spite of long queues and even rain in some parts of the country.

Many people are talking of +70% turnouts but I do not know if these are scientific estimates or mere guesses. It remains to be seen whether the allegations of rigging by Raila this morning will have affected the turnout, as they further emphasised his message of an oppressive government.

Most people here are not sleeping, waiting till morning to get the full results

sorry
written by concerned voter , December 27, 2007

Just thought I would explain, these are only provisional results. Some polling stations and precincts finished earlier than others, some were more organised or encountered fewer problems than others.

There have not been any reports of anomalies (the misplacement of voters aside), and it has been a good election all around, nothing like Nigeria or Uganda. So we have something to be proud of. The big question now will be how the losing sides handle their losses.

exit polls
written by Tmothy Wainaina , December 27, 2007

Only a short time left. Full results should be out over the weekend. Here are some exit poll results from the IED.

Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki leads Thursday's presidential election with 47.4 percent of the vote, versus 42.7 for opposition leader Raila Odinga, according to an exit poll by a local independent observer group.

The Institute for Education in Democracy (IED), a respected non-governmental organization, gave the figures -- which it was constantly updating on its Web site -- at 8 p.m. (1700 GMT) based on more than 260 polling stations out of 20,000.

Here.

Gatanga Polling
written by Kamale , December 27, 2007

I can confirm that in Gatanga where the votes to Kibaki have been at a rate of 100%, the election agents would report who has not voted and the co-ordinator for the polling station would go fetch the culprits. In one constituency, I understand everyone on the register had voted with the exception of one person that was hospitalised and one other missing. When I left the area, they were looking for this one fellow to complete a near 100% turnout!

ni mimi tena
written by concerned voter , December 27, 2007

KTN
Raila 49,748
Kibaki 32,929
Kalonzo 4,300

Looks like Kenyans have voted for change!

...
written by concerned voter , December 27, 2007

Nation
Kibaki 23,218
Raila 20,975
Kalonzo 1,680

...
written by manta ray , December 27, 2007

NTV as at 2230hours Kenya time

Kibaki 23095

Raila 20975

Kalonzo 1678

...
written by manta ray , December 27, 2007

NTV as at 2250hours

Kibaki 29837

Raila 26223

Kalonzo 1789

...
written by Silaha , December 27, 2007

I have been keeping track of the results from various polling stations as they are announced on KBC. All the results are in the Raila, Kibaki, Kalonzo order.

The interesting thing is that Raila has, as expected, broad support in non-Kikuyu and non-Kamba areas.

I am astounded at how dominant Raila was in cosmopolitan Nairobi.

Wow...

Note: These in an of themselves don't mean much but give some idea of the regional support.

-Silaha


Kitutu Chache
RAO 856
EMK 604
SKM 121

Rangwe
167
1
0

Ainamoi
462
280
6

Lang'ata - Olympic
749
23
12

Lang'ata Anyany
649
49
12

Butere
446
68
0

Kabete
361
4589
9

Narok South
125
65
1

Kerio South
158
14
2

Tinderet
485
41
0

Funyula
504
314
9

Bahari
100
126
6

Ainamoi 2
299
257

Eldoret East - 11 polling stations
3245
44
9

Mwingi North
43
144
646

Mwingi North 2
14
67
216

Location missed 9 polling stations
874
1842
7

Matuga
520
283
63

Kajiado Central
3775
1752
469

Githunguri
5
503
0

Gem
257
3
1

Gichugu
32
1507
4

Poor Kibaki
written by Superiere , December 28, 2007

Kibaki is and has always been a regional candidate. As these returns indicate, he gets 80% of his total votes from the Kikuyu, Embu and Meru groups. So much for being the "nation's" president.

Bye bye Emilio.

check here for updates
written by sasanet , December 28, 2007

You can find updates at this sites if you like. I do not understand why different sites report different figures, I would think all would receive same set of results from the polling stations. Maybe is best to wait for total than to keep posting figures which means nothing.

Link 1 Mheshimiwa
Link 2 NationMedia
Link 3 MarsGroup

refreshed exit polls
written by makena , December 28, 2007

Kibaki's lead is even wider from the exit polls at the IED. Showing results from 311 polling stations in 140 constituencies.

here is the link

Kibaki Mwai
PARTY OF NATIONAL UNITY 50.3%
Odinga Raila Amolo
ORANGE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT 40.7%
Musyoka Stephen Kalonzo
ORANGE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT -KENYA 8.9%

on television
written by george , December 28, 2007

Latest from Television

Mwai Kibaki 52 %
Raila Odinga 44 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 4 %

You just hope that the results are not influencing those who are counting!

patterns
written by makena , December 28, 2007

Too early to say if this is not over-influenced by the particular seats reported, but as expected Raila and Kibaki show a complete dominance of their home regions with complete shut-outs of the other candidates. Kalonzo shows great strength in lower Eastern Province although Kibaki is also getting good results there.

The President seems to be reporting good numbers in the old Bungoma district but getting very little elsewhere in Western Province.

Brilliant showing from John Kiarie of Reddykyulass fame in Dagoretti, maybe there will be an upset there for ODM?
Reports coming in also have the first Kenyan-Asian MP for a long time in Kisumu East (Shakeel Shabir) and James Orengo back in parliament after 5 years out in the cold.
Raila in-law Jakoyo Midiwo seems to have survived the scare from city lawyer Ambrose Rachier to take the Gem seat.
The head of ODM's strategy unit Prof Larry Gumbe looks to have beaten Minister Raphael Tuju in Rarieda.

more as they come.

just in
written by party pooper , December 28, 2007

Martha Karua is also back in.

Now I dont want to spoil anyones fun, but these up to the minute updates do not mean anything. Apart from the exit polls which are similar to opinion polling, the truth is the numbers we are getting are only showing Kibaki to be ahead because the majority of reported constituencies are pro-Kibaki constituencies. We will have to wait until maybe Monday, especially with results so close, as another writer has said, let us hope that these figures are not influencing what is happening on the ground.

bett
written by meegaag , December 28, 2007

franklin bett has defeated paul sang

Kibaki\'s Pyrhic victory
written by Superieure , December 28, 2007

Kibaki CANNOT win this election. Period. Yes, he will get 80-90% of GEMA votes which equals approx. 40% of the Kenya population + a few votes here and there in Gusiiland, Kambaland, etc.

However, assuming in that slimmest of slim chances that he wins (courtesy of PNU well orchestrated rigging machine rigging), Kibaki will for the first time in Kenya's history be a minority president in parliament.

My calculations parliamentary seats:

-ODM ........120 seats
-PNU......... 70
-ODM-K....... 12
-Others...... 10

exit polls
written by james gichui , December 28, 2007

What exactly is the science behind exit polls? I have seen that Raila and Salim Lone are trying to rubbish these polls but what exactly is wrong with them, are they any less or more biased than opinion polls? Do they under represent the votes from minority regions (i.e. how many people in Central will confess to having voted for Raila or how many in Nyanza or Rift Valley for Kibaki? There seem to be very many Ukambani folk who have chosen to vote Kibaki instead of Kalonzo, will they have confessed this to the exit pollsters?)

Does anyone know if Strategic PR have released their exit polls? The Nation says they should have done so, but I cannot see it anywhere.

Exit Polls
written by Silaha , December 28, 2007

From Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_poll (so no copyright issues)

An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks who the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks who the voter actually voted for. Pollsters - usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters - conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days to count.

Exit polls are also used to collect demographic data about voters and to find out why they voted as they did. Since actual votes are cast anonymously, polling is the only way of collecting this information.

Exit polls have historically and throughout the world been used as a check against and rough indicator of the degree of election fraud. Some examples of this include the Venezuelan recall referendum, 2004, the Ukrainian presidential election, 2004, and the 2004 U.S. presidential election controversy.

However, like all opinion polls, exit polls by nature do include a margin of error. A famous example of exit poll error occurred in the 1992 UK General Election, when two exit polls predicted a hung parliament. The actual vote revealed that Conservative Party Government under John Major held their position, though with a significantly reduced majority.

A more fundamental statistical problem with exit polls is selection bias. The polls, though typically much larger than regular opinion polls, still sample only a small fraction of voters. In a heterogeneous population, sloppy selection of the sample can tilt results to any direction. This pitfall can be avoided if the polling organization is competent enough. However, there are problems more inherent to the nature of exit polls. Since the clients (the media) want to publicize results as soon as the real polls close, exit polls must close a few hours earlier. Therefore, late-hour voters are not sampled at all. Some constituencies tend to vote early, for example the elderly and stay-at-home mothers, and are oversampled in the exit polls. Other constituencies tend to vote late and are under-sampled. This may be the explanation for the 2004 US presidential election discrepancy between early exit polls indicating a Kerry victory, and the final outcome. Additionally, voters may be more or less willing to participate in the exit polls, or more or less willing to sabotage the poll by providing a false vote, depending on their political tendency. This is known as nonresponse and response bias, respectively.

Superiere
written by Amir Ibrahim , December 28, 2007

I agree with you on that one. It remains to be seen how the MPs align themselves, you know parties mean nothing in our country, but I think there are serious legitimacy issues here.

First of all, say Raila loses the Kibera seat but wins the national vote. Regardless of how that pans out, unless Kibaki wins a run-off, I think we can safely agree that the President will be seen to be an illegitimate president.
The second point is the one about regional representation. If six out of eight provinces reject the President, and do so by a large margin, then even were he to win, it will still feel to most Kenyans like they have been robbed.

This is why those of us opposed to an ODM victory would have liked very much for Kibaki to have started campaigning much earlier and to have shown a greater resolve, a more inclusive approach including tricks such as the Pentagon and so on. Winning is not everything.

Silaha,
Yes, Franklin Bett is in ODM.

...
written by Silaha , December 28, 2007

Winners

Ugenya: Orengo (ODM)

Kisumu Town East: Shabir (ODM)

Bureti: Bett (ODM?) over Minister Sang (KANU)

Mukurweini: Kabando wa Kabando (Safina) over Minister Kagwe (PNU)

Gichugu: Martha Karua (PNU)

why the differences
written by Stephen Wainaina , December 28, 2007

Am I the only one who has noticed, that there seem to be very different reports coming from different stations / news organisations?

Kibaki seems to be doing very well in Ukambani, that will be the shock of the election if he wins. Also in Maasailand.

Superiere
I do not think we can boast too much about the rest of the country having voted for one candidate and not the other. The truth is, this election is about bashing the Agikuyu, how useful that is in the long term, we will just see, won't we? This is what explains the results in the Rift Valley, in Nyanza and in Western province.

P.S. Why are we not seeing any Coastal results?

...
written by Silaha , December 28, 2007

Wainaina:

The different reports are bugging me too, I have been watching KBC online forever (it seems) although they have this crappy graphic that's not very useful.

MarsGroup seems to have just added Ukambani because Stevo now is showing 23% which we all know is far higher than his true support which is running even below his 10% from opinion polls. (I think many of his supporters upon realizing how close the race is between Agwambo and Emilio decided to vote for their second choice.)

Nation on the other hand does not seem to have included Eastern at all.

I cannot connect to the ECK website. sigh. That would be the only source of true information.

Superieure:

Amazingly Kibaki is getting far more than your suggested 80-90% in GEMA-land.

He could, mathematically, still win, but you're absolutely right, Parliament is ODMs.

-Silaha

KBC: Awori and Ojiambo
written by Silaha , December 28, 2007

Both VP Awori and ODM-K VP nominee Julia Ojiambo have lost in Funyula to ODM candidate Paul Otuoma.

Musikari Kombo - OUT

Moses Wetangula - OUT

Wow, the Cabinet is being sent home en masse.

Good analysis Ibrahim and Sila
written by Superieure , December 28, 2007

Ibrahim:

Were Kibaki to squeak by but with what seems will be an obvious ODM majority in parliament, he would have to deal with questions revolving around whether he has the mandate to govern a polarized and divided country. In the event, Kibaki would also face legitimacy issues a la George W.Bush in the aftermath of the Florida debacle against Al Gore circa 2000.

Silaha:
Kibaki was an incumbent who presided over stellar economic growth. For him to be this close to Raila in the polls at hour X just boggles the mind. had Kibaki dispensed with Mwiraria, Saitoti and probably even Murungi in the aftermath of Githongo's expose, and appointed clean folk in their stead, he probably would be sitting pretty at this hour. instead, the man awaits the equivalent of his political purgatory.

p.s. Central has some very attractive future national leaders in Kabando wa Kabando and the cerebral Muite. Kenyatta....blah.

some constituencies
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

Some constituencies have not yet been factored in. I am talking of course about the Kibaki section of the Rift Valley, and large parts of Central and Eastern Province.

Here is the voter breakdown per province

Rift Valley 3,358,285 registered voters

Coast 1,178,319 registered voters

North Eastern 315,664 registered voters

Nairobi 1,275,021 registered voters

Eastern 2,374,875 registered voters

Central 2,186,315 registered voters

Nyanza 2,041,686 registered voters

Western 1,564,854 registered voters

Need a shrink by now!
written by Very very concerned , December 28, 2007

I can't even add on to the comments already made. Raila said 55% it sounds more like 70%. Celebrations on one side. Depression on the other.
What bothers me is the incredible calm. We never had such quiet elections!
Storm coming up?!

Alexander
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

Part of the reason for that heavy turnout is the siege mentality occasioned in no small part by the ODM's anti-GEMA strategy, including such statements as adui and the infamous, some regions will cry.

Now add to that the fear of Majimbo which will kick people from Central Province out of the Rift Valley, add to it the fact that they are protecting the incumbent and the fact that they have already been beaten at the referendum and you have the waves that we saw yesterday.

Like others have said, it will be difficult to govern with a solid mandate from only the Central part of the country, not just the province but the Nairobi, Central, Eastern and Southern Rift.

P.S. What does this alignment say for Majimbo, these are absolutely the wealthiest parts of the country.

so far
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

Raila Odinga 1,862,573 - 58 %
Mwai Kibaki 1,179,271 - 37 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 152,159 - 5 %

re: why the differences
written by aeichener , December 28, 2007

The truth is, this election is about bashing the Agikuyu

That would certainly explain the strong Rift Valley statement.

I am a bit shocked how strong ("North Korean" the pro-Kibaki vote in Central is. Not even a bit of dissent?

Alexander

PNU and illiteracy
written by Superieure , December 28, 2007

Had PNU invested a few dollars in hiring a real statistician, they might have discovered the folly of putting too much stock in this "exit poll" done by IED.The poll started off by exagerating Kibaki's lead in a few polling stations (roughly 2%) or so and extrapolating this across the country's 20,000 plus stations. The significance of that initial error should not be overlooked.

reason
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

You do not think the IED are real statisticians? And what makes you think they are allied to the PNU? They made it clear that their results were only from a certain number of polling stations, and like these updates we are getting from ECK, theirs were also changing as exit poll results continued to be sent to their Nairobi office.

Let us debate the usefulness of opinion and exit polls, but let's not insult organisations who are simply trying to provide a public service. This site usually does not tolerate matusi.

stop counting
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

Results from some parts of the constituencies have been stopped after irregularities were noted.

Garsen, Kilgoris and Kajiado North.

more
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

I can't even add on to the comments already made. Raila said 55% it sounds more like 70%. Celebrations on one side. Depression on the other.
What bothers me is the incredible calm. We never had such quiet elections!
Storm coming up?!

Latest numbers stand at
Raila Odinga 2,141,126 - 57 %
Mwai Kibaki 1,414,599 - 38 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 194,737 - 5 %

Note however that we have very few numbers from the traditional Kibaki strongholds or from Kalonzo's Ukambani region.

check at marskenya
written by Amir Ibrahim , December 28, 2007

New numbers

Raila Odinga 2,585,856 - 57 %
Mwai Kibaki 1,663,519 - 37 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 264,783 - 6 %

The Kalonzo numbers are suspiciously low, as are the numbers for Kibaki.

...
written by aeichener , December 28, 2007

The tally seems regionally very uneven so far. It appears quite possible to me that the lead of Raila might remain, but the chasm will very likely become smaller.

A.

Rig Attempt; Saitoti Foiled
written by Silaha , December 28, 2007

Citizens Foil Saitoti's Attempt to "Rig"

There was some riveting footage on KBC showing some fracas at a polling station in Kajiado North. Supposedly Saitoti showed up with unsealed ballot boxes and the wananchi simply refused to be duped. Security officers dispersed the agitated crowd by shooting in the air.

The most interesting part was when come citizens were captured on camera saying that "Saitoti must go, he has one vote and together we have many. After 24 years we're tired and we want a change."

Looking at the facial features and accents of the folks captured on camera, there was a Kikuyu looking guy and a few Maasai looking folks all saying the same thing. Perhaps it is true what they say, in Africa there are only two tribes, Wabenzi and Wamaskini.

Vote counting was suspended and ECK has no asked the presiding officer to restart voting but many of the people required fled in the fracas.

-Silaha

Official ECK Pres Results
written by Silaha , December 28, 2007

17 constituencies reporting, from Kivuitu's update right now.

MK 39.4%
Kalonzo 5.7%
Raila 54.4%

Total votes in: 797,851

all others less than 1%.

Reporting precincts.
(Missing)
Samburu East
Taveta East
Wajir East
Voi
Eldoret North
Eldoret East
Eldoret South
Sigor
Saboti
Bomet
Kerio North
Kipipiri
Mathira
Yatta
Saku
Othaya

Interesting statistics
In 3 Central province constituencies, MK got 98.8%, 98.8% and 99.3%. Truly amazing, if it was not for ECK I would suspect some stuff.

...
written by Amir Ibrahim , December 28, 2007

Silaha,
What is Kivuitu saying? MarsKenya has the current presidential as follows

Raila Odinga 2,976,043 56 %
Mwai Kibaki 2,019,265 38 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 275,235 5 %

Silaha, Amir
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

Is it true that Kivuitu finds himself unable to make phone calls? Is there something wrong with the results we are getting? Why is the ECK not verifying them, and why are there contradictions about?

...
written by Silaha , December 28, 2007

Wanyama:

Kivuitu said that his phones at KICC cannot make outgoing calls -- he suspects someone has tampered with them.

The results of the 17 constituencies that I shared with you earlier are official results. They need to hear from the Presiding Officers before they can certify the results.

-Silaha

...
written by makau sikuku , December 28, 2007

why are we not getting results from nai and eastern

latest
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

KTN latest tally;

NATIONAL:

Raila Odinga: 3,299,790
Mwai Kibaki: 2,345,287
Kalonzo Musyoka: 356,831

P.S. If you are into video, link here for some of the latest.
Mvita
Langata

latest from marsKenya
written by Annette Keino , December 28, 2007

Raila Odinga 3,344,709 53 %
Mwai Kibaki 2,459,839 39 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 452,365 7 %

Tom Wolf
written by Annette Keino , December 28, 2007

I was just listening now to a video clip from Tom Wolf at Steadman on Nation TV earlier today/ yesterday.

He says turnout may very well reach somewhere in the region of 11 million, which is almost 80%. 65% would be somewhere just above 9 million.

He also suggested that Ukambani voters and other backers of Kalonzo Musyoka show a strong second-preference for Mwai Kibaki. This he said may lead to a situation where Kibaki gets far more in Eastern Province, i.e. both Ukambani and Mt Kenya areas than was expected especially if Kalonzo's fraction of the pie diminishes from the projected 10-15% range and comes down to less than 8% heading to the 5% region. This would really boost Kibaki's chances.

Finally, he suggested that if turnout in pro-Kibaki areas was more than that in pro-Raila areas by 10% then Kibaki should win the election.

adjustments
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

The latest figures now from KTN

Raila Odinga 3.557.085
Mwai Kibaki 2.969.084
Kalonzo Musyoka 0.5m

This gives a total of something like 7 million votes, so there is not too much left to play with, but the gap between the top two has narrowed further. You can check KTN.

turnout
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

Well Annette, if we assume a turnout of between 9 and 11 million, which is about 64% much akin to what we saw in 2002 where it was 6.4 million out of a total of 10.2 million, then we can expect at least 2 million more votes.
I have seen some very high turnout numbers, especially in Central and the Rift Valley, so we can reasonably expect something close to the 70-75% range which is 9.8 to 10.5 million.
See this thread here.

Parliament Wins
written by Silaha , December 28, 2007

From Mzalendo.com with 95 constituecies finalized.

Where I did not know for sure, I guessed on affiliation (friendly).

Party MPs Friendly?

ODM 56 Raila
NARC 1 Raila
PNU 14 Kibaki
KANU 5 Kibaki
SAFINA 3 Kibaki
FORD-K 2 Kibaki
NEWF-K 1 Kibaki
ODM-K 6 Kalonzo
PICK 1 Kalonzo
CCM 1 Independent
CCU 1 Independent
KENDA 1 Independent
MAZING 1 Independent
SISI 1 Independent
UDM 1 Independent
Total 95

Extrapolating to 210 constituencies
Raila friendly: 127
Kibaki friendly: 56
Kalonzo friendly: 15
Independent: 13

If Raila doesn't hold on to the very end, how is this country going to be governed?

silaha
written by Amir Ibrahim , December 28, 2007

Mzee, first thing, those independents are actually pro-whoever wins the presidency. Do you have a breakdown for those particular seats? Who won them I mean, the MPs? I did not know CCU and CCM won.

Secondly, Kibaki will continue as he has in the last five years, with a GNU.

turnout
written by Stephen Wainaina , December 28, 2007

Wanyama,
11 million is 78%. I think that is far too high, 10 million is more likely.

Silaha
Sasa, the thing is once in parliament, MPs are slaves of the President. This is the tragedy of the present system, there is great allure in the goodies that presidential favour can provide and great fear of elections!

gap narrows
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 28, 2007

The difference is now 529,000

Raila 3,571,158
Kibaki 3,043,921
Kalonzo 510,479

Meanwhile, remember that these are only provisional results. Until the ECK has put out results, nothing is really official.

...
written by Kamale , December 28, 2007

Further update:

Eastern 31% of votes counted

Central 61% of votes counted

Nairobi 39% of votes counted (Embakasi not counted with 250k voters)

Amusing PNU supporters
written by Mwambu , December 28, 2007

How to know when it's over? It's over folks. Get on with your lives. I mean, even Kombo got it in Webuye. Now the real hard work starts.

Good job!
written by vivid , December 28, 2007

Keep up the good work guys. Maybe it's just me but I find the election coverage by the leading newspapers to be pretty dismal.

...
written by ODM , December 28, 2007

its over .Raila is the president.

Kamanda falls
written by Mwambu , December 28, 2007

Kamanda loses in Starehe to Rev.Wanjiru by 1,000 votes.

re: PNU loses
written by Mwambu , December 28, 2007

its over .Raila is the president.

I have never in my life seen such sore losers as Kibaki and these PNU partisans that frequent this thread.

Time for a major transformation in Kenya.

PNU Propagandists
written by Naima , December 29, 2007

I would like to see the faces of those PNU propagandists once Raila is sworn in. Going by the current parliamentary election results, Kenyans have send out a very strong & clear message to those who think that State House belongs to one ethnic group becoz it sure doesn't.

awfully close
written by Sik , December 29, 2007

http://politics.nationmedia.com/

latest count
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 29, 2007

Raila Odinga 3,609,795 50 %
Mwai Kibaki 3,116,373 43 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 516,511 7 %

nationmedia numbers
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 29, 2007

This is what Nation are reporting, I have not yet understood why different media organisations are reporting different numbers, and we do not want to feed the ODM conspiracists do we?



Raila Odinga 3.402.286
Mwai Kibaki 3.247.902
Kalonzo Musyoka 565.009

How PNU plans to steal the ele
written by Mwambu , December 29, 2007

Folks, PNU is borrowing from the Richard Nixon bag of tricks on how to steal an election. This is how it is done: first, wait for the opponents strongholds to be tallied, knowing how many votes you trail by then like a magicians trick close the gap, eliminate the difference and voila.

Do not be surprised if we get similar percentage returns from the GEMA strongholds of Kibaki in the next few hours.

Most Kenyans are not critical thinkers but here's the deal. If presidential returns from far fung areas like the upper Northern Rift, remote parts of Upper Eastern Province, and other such like far flung areas have been transported to Nairobi, tallied and the results already made public, why not votes from areas in fairly close proximity to Nairobi?

hello
written by Stanislaus Kagwima , December 29, 2007

National
Raila Odinga: 3,737,000
Mwai Kibaki: 3,403,000

Provincial:
Nairobi
RO: 219,000
MK: 207,00
Nyanza
RO: 1,153,000
MK: 142,000
Central
MK: 1,580,000
RO: 31,000
Western
RO: 642,000
MK: 312,000
Rift Valley Province
RO: 1,335,000
MK: 551,0000
North Eastern Province
RO: 64,000
MK: 58,000
Eastern Province
MK: 412,000
RO: 53,000
KM: 412,000
Coast Province
RO: 243,000
MK: 131,000

Registered Voters
written by Curious , December 29, 2007

Does anyone know where we can get the number of registered voters in a province to give us a general idea how many votes are yet to be counted?
For example, according to nation elections, about 250,000 votes have been counted in Nairobi, with MK leading. What does this number mean in relation to those who actually registered/ voted on Thursday?
Thanks.

virtue in humility
written by newafroguy , December 29, 2007

ODM,
We can and should all get along as Kenyans. We have, thankfully, a steadily maturing democracy and even those with opposing views should be welcome to the table so we can all learn from each other and build a better Kenya. At least I hope that will be ODM'S stand.

Our biggest challenge is to repair the damage caused by ethnocentrism. It is the biggest threat to our growing democracy. These results demonstrate the urgency of this matter. Arrogance is exactly what we don't need right now. That's what we were getting rid of in the first place.

latest results
written by Stephen Wanyama , December 29, 2007

Raila's lead widens again

Raila Odinga 3,829,087 49 %
Mwai Kibaki 3,417,085 44 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 526,349 7 %

Curious, please check out the Scribd document in this link here.

re: virtue in humility
written by a guest , December 29, 2007

ODM,
We can and should all get along as Kenyans. We have, thankfully, a steadily maturing democracy and even those with opposing views should be welcome to the table so we can all learn from each other and build a better Kenya. At least I hope that will be ODM'S stand.

Our biggest challenge is to repair the damage caused by ethnocentrism. It is the biggest threat to our growing democracy. These results demonstrate the urgency of this matter. Arrogance is exactly what we don't need right now. That's what we were getting rid of in the first place.

Of course the damage caused by ethnocentricism has nothing to do with the fact that ODM supporters are celebrating this presumed trouncing of a system that has nyanyasad Kenyans since independence. Do not equate innocent celebration of a well deserved victory for ethnocentricism. After all, ODM has a NATIONAL base. Repeat. ODM unlike PNU is a national party that has Indians, Arabs, Somalis, Luhyas, Kalenjins, Giriamas, Taitas, Soys, Kikuyus, Kambas, Tesos, etc. What does the tribally cobbled up PNU have other thsan 80% of its votes from an enclave dominated by GEMA tribes in Central, MERu and Embu and the Kikuyu diaspora in the Rift Valley? So, first check up your facts before you spew statements that are illusory and emotional.

Congrats to Eugene in Saboti on PNU ticket.

provincial breakdown
written by Stephen Wainaina , December 29, 2007

this link from the ECK provides the most up to date numbers.

PDF warning.

...
written by newafroguy , December 29, 2007

@anonymous

You got me wrong sis/brother. I was merely responding to an earlier post by someone going by "ODM" whose sentiment was that those unhappy with a Raila victory should pack up and find another country.

Am surprised you ask me to check my facts yet I refered to the very stats you mention and said it was alarming and needed addressed.

I don't think calling for healing and co-operation among Kenyans is equal to "spewing statements that are illusory and emotional"

The way forward, regardless of who wins is for the next government to make a conscious effort to unite central kenya with the rest of the country. Arrogance and further antagonism will not benefit anyone.

...
written by Amir Ibrahim , December 29, 2007

NewAfroGuy
Hongera for supplying us with some much needed wisdom, especially when those from your parties seem intent on allowing their emotions to get the better of them.

I think whichever party wins will have a lot of work in its hands, especially to address the passionate sentiments against the Kikuyu from across the country.

Latest
written by Amina , December 29, 2007

ODM-91
PNU- 32
ODM-K 12
Kanu 7
Safina 4
Ford 3
Narc 3

...
written by Amina , December 29, 2007

Makadara-- Dick Wathika, Narc-K

Kibaki wins
written by Truthseeker , December 29, 2007

With the difference in the results being down to 38,000 votes with Raila leading, if you take into account the constituencies outstanding, then the only favourable ones to Raila are Baringo Central, Malaba, Changamwe and Kisauni where Raila had a huge vote.

There is still the aborted Meru and Kisii votes where Kibaki was ahead, and if you add the remaining votes in Garsen, Mandera Central, Gatundu South and Ikolomani, then it is safe to say that Kibaki has bagged this election.

why the double standards?
written by gichangi , December 29, 2007

High turnouts in Central Kenya are considered suspicious, but without the organisation that we saw in Central Province (read Oyudo's article) Nyatike and Ndhiwa still managed plus 90% turnouts! Nyatike even got to 98%, while Othaya only managed 89%.

But no ODM must win, PNU must just crawl away and accept defeat.

...
written by gichangi , December 29, 2007

your issue is that you hate Raila.you keep on writing rubbish.we want this issue resolved .Gichangi you are still insisting the election was fair.this election was bogus.thats it.stop shouting loudly you have been heard we know yor stand now shut up.

...
written by mike , December 29, 2007

that was me mike

...
written by MIKE , December 29, 2007

The elections were not free and fair.no side shud justify the actons of the other.presidential results shud be nullifie.

...
written by Annette Keino , December 29, 2007

Latest results
Raila Odinga 3,880,053 48 %
Mwai Kibaki 3,842,051 47 %
Kalonzo Musyoka 346,214 4 %

But the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation has different numbers.

Mwai Kibaki 4.3M
Raila Odinga 3.9M
18 constituencies left to go

Registered Voters Per Province
written by Silaha , December 29, 2007

Curious:

From the ECK website. Totals per district can be found on my blog -- link above.

RVP 3,358,285
CEN 2,186,315
EAS 2,374,693
NYZ 2,041,686
WES 1,564,747
NAI 1,275,021
CST 1,178,319
NEP 315,666
Total 14,294,732

-Silaha