Uhuru is down and out
written by Jah , June 18, 2007

The point you havem perhaps the only one is that, Uhuru has got some muscle to flex after the delegates conference. But remmember, ODM supporters can do without Uhuru but Uhuru cannot do without ODM supporters. One of the major supporters and perhaps the cornerstone of the RVP politics is Ruto. As long as they are not on the same page then Uhuru is just as badly off as he was before teh conference. If Ruto should publicly denounce Uhuru then that will be the end of the man. He might actually recapture his Gatundu seat due to his disassociation with ODM, but that will be it. We all know that 80 percent of all the RVP MPs are pro ODM. The rest of the twenty percent Uhru will share with Kibaki. The man even though trying his lack has not made a proper calculation. The haphazardness by which he has been jumping in and out of ODM shows that his mind is not settled. Now he is in kanu now he is in ODM. Talking about structures, Uhuru is the last person who should talk about structure. Kanu is currently split into three led by Biwott, Uhuru and Ruto. Why does he see the needle in another person eye and fails to see the log in his own eye?

Lion paws on a house cat
written by Ralph , June 19, 2007

Uhuru is a paper tiger. He should make good his threats and run under KANU. I'm sure Kibaki would be fascinated.

Uhuru is Lost.
written by mmnjug , June 19, 2007

I was reading Dominic Odipo's article in yesterday's EAStd. He put very well when he said that Uhuru's enemy in none other than Kibaki. Those people in ODM cant harm him more than Kibki can politically. That he will remain politically irrelevant as long as Kibaki is running since he command more people in Central than Uhuru does. Methinks, Odipo is on shot. Uhuru's is just a paper tiger as Ralph has said. He should have stayed in ODM to remain relevant in the current political dispensation. To behave as if he has just found his mouth after all these years is to play on our collective intelligence.

click to http://assidous.blogspot.com

No Hard feelings Mr UK we unde
written by Buda , June 19, 2007

This guy has run out of options,he knows darn well that it is a lose-lose situation for him in ODM because he is not likely to win the ODM nomination and neither are his chances of recupturing the Gatundu seat on an ODM ticket high.On the other hand he has three options 'a' to run for president on a kanu ticket and stay politicaly relevant hence recupturing his Gatundu seat,'b' join narc kenya under kanu as a partner and aim at the 2012 succesion or 'c' stay in kanu and support kibaki re-election while maintain the autonomy of kanu in preperation for 2012.His exit from ODM will not have any impact to write home about.Lastly he can swallow his pride and eat humble pie ,call a press conference and categoricaly defect to Narc kenya or in other words pull a "Kamotho"

hypocrite
written by magothe , June 19, 2007

Uhuru is hypocrite, going about how he in nationalist lakini when he notices he can't get any kikuyu votes he hides behind nonsensical demands. He is no different to JJ kamotho. Just tell the guy to and run Kanu ya Mama na Baba.

...
written by Kamale , June 19, 2007

No wait one gentlement!

I think we want to hold on to history longer than is necessary and even use to plan politics. That in my view is wrong.

For instance, there is this notion that those that voted NO for the Wako draft are true ODM followers hence that is a vote tied and locked.

The other false notion is that Kenyans actually have a problem with KANU as a party as they did in 2002 hence their attitude towards KANU still holds.

If we look at the former notion, it is certainly not true that all those that voted NO have a political inclination to stick it out with ODM. I tell people that my missus voted NO in 2005 for the simple reason that was the stand taken by the evangelicals. Today, apart from the likes of Margaret Wanjiru who saw a political opportunity, other mainstream evangelicals led by Bishop Mark Kariuki and Kitonga no longer tow the Orange line. The other pointer would be the performance of ODM in recent by-elections in areas that voted NO and the party has lost the by-elections.

It is important to remember that in ODM, it is the personalities that push the 'apparent' popularity of the party as opposed to the ideology of the party which does not exist.

Coming back to Uhuru, I think it is foolhardy to write off Uhuru just yet. As I said above, it is not true that Kenyans have a problem with Kanu, but perhaps the problem they had was with Moi. Being a very forgiving lot, Kenyans will happily embrace a Kanu that is led by Uhuru than one led by Biwott! For Uhuru politicall, he knows that he cannot sell ODM in his central province background but can easily sell Kanu to people in Kiambu and other parts. For instance he can get MPs elected on a Kanu ticket without minding them voting for Kibaki as a president. The unstructured nature of ODM and the undefined nomination process for parliament and local authorities means that an existing Kanu will be able to absorb those 'robbed of nomination' in ODM and cannot go to other parties like DP or NARC-K. So it is possible that Uhuru could end up with up to 20 MPs in the house. Note that quite a number of incumbents are already entrenching themselves into either ODM or NARC-K, and if you follow tradition, roughly 60% if not more MPs will not be re-elected, so unless there is an euphoric wave (and none is anticipated for 2007), then popular new candidates will be moving to parties such as KANU and DP that have an infrastructure as well as a history.

You cannot write off Uhuru just that easily!

Poor leadership
written by pndiangui , June 19, 2007

Uhuru, the so called 'leader of official opposition' has portrayed a very deficient leadership style. The only consequence his puul out might have on ODM is 'denting' (if there is any) the 'national outlook' the party claimed to have (in its claim that even central Kenya, Kibaki's home turf, was accomodated) plus ODM's leverage on Uhuru's deep pockets and financial networks in its campaign resources mobilisation. End of story.

Kenyatta is dead
written by Jah , June 19, 2007

Kamale,
You are completely out of the mark as far as Uhuru is concerned. It will be impossible for Uhuru to get the 20 MPs you mentioned. Even if 60% of all MPs lost their seats, there is absolutely nothing to suggest that Uhuru will gain from that. You see, the outcome of the court case which is pitting kanu(uhuru) against kanu(biwott) will be ruled in favour of Uhuru. Given the tribal nature of Kenya poltics, Biwott might take 15 percent of kanu mps with him. Ruto 75 percent and the rest 5 percent will be left for Uhuru. The problem is that all the 5% percent will be probably trounced in the forth coming elections. Why? Because they shall have bet on the wrong horse. Its as simple as that. Kanu Mps in Nyanza(if there are any there), RVP, Coast, Western will be dramatically beaten. Eastern might get one or two MPs and NEP will be up for grabs.

The other thing Uhuru is forgetting is that he intends to run for president in 2012. Being so arrogant will not help his cause.

Kenyatta is dead

fire fighter
written by kamau , June 19, 2007

In the short run Uhurus move will deal a blow to ODM and next years elections but from a long term strategy it will be better for Kenyan democracy. KANU is the only real political party in the country with a national out look and representation. All other parties are organizations of convenience that can not last beyond their founders. The current leadership of KANU and the old mans hold on the party will not last forever. KANU years from now will be best poised to take Kenyan politics beyond tribal myopia and is likely to become a major center right party we we finally grow up politically.

Kamau why lie
written by Jah , June 19, 2007

You talking as if kanu has no tribalists and as if uhuru is not a tribalist. Well, I thought so too untill it emerged that he was moving ut of ODM to help "one of their own" (read kibaki win). Yes, kanu has history, but its a dirty history that nobody wants to associate with. Remmmber the likes of Biwott are still calling shots in mama na baba. Its history and popularity is biuld on lies and deciet

Boy Scout
written by Kamau , June 19, 2007

Jah,

I agree whole heartedly with what your assessment of KANU. I don’t think Uhuru made his move for moral or ultraistic reasons. I believe though, that from a party democracy perspective which is what Kenya is struggling to be; KANU has the best chance at becoming a truly national party after the goons have left. I do not see ODM or NACK becoming real parties that will outlast KANU. After their agendas change (removing Kibaki or holding on) they will dismantle because they have no political philosophy that binds them. KANU like an old married couple may not have anything in common anymore will still have its history and tradition to keep it going past the lunatics that run it now.

Great Analysis Kamale
written by pndiangui , June 19, 2007

Kamale

Let us seperate a couple things;

1. A weak, lazy and poor leader in Uhuru Kenyatta albeit well resourced

2.Kenyans past, present and future voting patterns. Including past elections, the referendum voting pattern and the direction 2007 voting Pattern might take.

Since you have put forward your points of view by taking the number 2 path, let me stick to it.
I agree 2005 referendum votes to the Orange party are not under lock & key but again the influence by evangilists for a NO vote win , might not be the only thing that lead to the ODM resounding win. Infact perceived tribalism and a dishonoured MOU were the greatest motivator against a 'kibaki fronted' constitution. This very reason will hand a united ODM a resounding victory once again come 2007. Nothing Idelogical, nothing of the Individuals being popular nationally but jut the 'one of our own'= tribalism (including the perceived 'US' against THEM; read Other Kenyan communities against an 'arrogant crop of central Kenyans', a perception so strongly reinforced at times by Kibaki's kitchen cabinet /appointees, the dishonoured MOU and the subsequent firing of the LDP chief political architects from Kibaki's government after the referendum. )
I actually dont think there will be any other stronger decision making tool that will be applied in the 2007 election outside of Central Kenya than this one. Even if the Economy grew at 20% P.A.
This notion alone then, make Uhuru Kenyatta irrelevant outside of ODM if his percieved parliamentary seats are pegged on being won from outside of central Kenya. I however think he has some influence in NEP , although his by-election performance in these areas was still wanting.
If we take this stand, we can see why Uhuru would even have a problem rallying support wthin his own Kiambu backyard leave alone other parts of Central Kenya. So even 1 MP which is Uhuru himself might be a harder output for Jomo's son. I see him as somebody standing between a rock and a hard place.

True, kanu is the only true pa
written by Jah , June 21, 2007

Kamau,
Kanu is surely the only party that can be called a party. It has grassroots which no other party in Kenya has. I hope that the likes of Uhuru realise this a played their cards skillfully. It seems that Ruto will be gaining from these grassroots more than Uhuru. Kanu needs to be populated with good leaders. The Biwott type should move to say,Narc. This will leave give kanu abreathing space, for will it not only have the strong grassroots support but also enjoy honest leadership. But more importantly, it must completely disassocaite itself with Moi. For the moment one gets cossy with the old man he/she get tainted on the spot.

why can\'t i login?
written by veritas , June 24, 2007

that was impressive Mr Maina. i'd say his disadvantage is his gawky dork attitude, persona etc. i'm sure he has the cash, the background, the party, he just ain't a politician. i'd say ldp is the one who had a party future before kalonzo's personal ambitions killed it.