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GNU: Demise of Multi Party Politics? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Abdul Mote   
Friday, 04 January 2008

It is now obvious that Kenyans are desperate for a solution to the anarchy overtaking their nation, A solution that may ultimately bring us the peace we so desperately want and by which we may return to the urgencies of national development.

Countless formulas have been suggested, proposing paths that may eventually bring us the peace we so desperately want. Some have put forward that there be a presidential vote recount and others a fresh tally of the vote count. These are solid suggestions, but they are not without their flaws and bear the hazard that their results may prove just as inconclusive as our present situation. This is especially so because absent guarantees to the integrity of such votes or the electoral forms, it is doubtful that any faith can be held in them.

Others have suggested that the ODM and Raila Odinga should take to the Courts, filing an electoral petition for the denunciation of the elections results. Odinga and the ODM allege that the judicial route is not a viable one because the courts are stacked against them, with the majority of the officers of the judiciary being appointees of the President. Whilst I find that this is the ideal solution, as it allows the ODM's grievances an objective and public hearing, it appears that those proposing this solution are not determined in their proposal or in ensuring that the ODM's fear of the courts is assuaged. So no one it seems is taking this means at all seriously.

What seems to be the centre of attention is the suggested creation of a Government of National Unity or a Coalition Government, where power is shared by the various political parties. This, it is hoped, will help calm the parties that see themselves as having been swindled at the elections, and as a result quell the riots and pacify the fires of anger and hatred.

But is this the right solution? While it is true that each one of us is at the moment shocked beyond belief at the carnage and the brutal murders fuelled by the hatred against specific ethnicities, there is the danger that in our rush to solve the immediate crisis, our state of shock renders us insufficiently objective to create sustainable solutions. The attempts at joint government are exactly such a decision, sentimental and comprising, but likely unsustainable.

One of the reasons for this suggestion is the fact that the electorate appears evenly split between the two main sides. It is also worth mentioning that each group did get 25% support in five provinces, which fact establishes that a substantial minority supports the opposing grouping even where the other dominates. Democracy as we know it, insists that the majority will, as expressed at the election and as per the requirements of the constitution, prevails. It is then expected that this majority is able, while respecting the inalienable rights of the minority and watching all the time not to push too far, imposes its wishes on the nation.

Having said that it is clear that any democratic integrity the election results could have gone towards achieving has long disappeared. The entrenched positions of our present scenario bring us to question the workability of our entire democratic experiment with neither side looking to either accept defeat, or play the part of an honourable victor. The result of this deadlock is that the two divides are lost from the intended path, and their followers and the entire nation cast into a furnace where the ever present but ‘subdued and underlying' ethnic hatred is sparked into the conflagration we now witness.

So it is that creating a Government of National Unity or a Coalition Government is merely cosmetic and fails to address the underlying defects in our political system. It follows that such an amalgamation of the will of a divided nation into a joint body of governance may not after all bring about the desired satisfaction of all concerened. While offering the appearance of a victory for everyone, this compromise also refuses to address the very reasons why these groups were formed as they were, or indeed why many in our present situation feel so strongly that they are disenfranchised.

Apart from the fact that such a government would be a band-aid solution to what is a very serious problem, it also bears the alternative threat of destroying our fledgling attempt at building a multi-party democracy, heralding instead the possible return to the good old days of KANU's one party rule. The determination with which Kenyans shook off those bonds cannot be taken for granted, especially as our politicians are not exactly averse to coming together to fashion pacts that benefit the political class but hurt everyone else.

The ODM's Raila Odinga has suggested a halfway solution, a caretaker government whose main purpose will be to prepare the nation for fresh elections in three months. Fresh elections are necessary, but to make the process more affordable, we may need to restrict ourselves (against the will of such politicians as Uhuru Kenyatta) to the presidential election, leaving out parliamentary and civic ones. President Kibaki on his part appears ready to talk although what parameters these talks will extend to remains to be seen.

But what remains to be understood is what specifically Raila Odinga has in mind when he suggests a caretaker government. Its  imagined composition (numbers and positions) has not been made clear and is likely to be the topic of greatest interest this coming week.  This discussion and the consideration among the political class will not just revolve about matters of makeup, but also the  subsequent ramifications on our multi-party democracy and on distribution across the ethnic divide. President Kibaki and the PNU hold many of the cards, but in negotiation, they will want to look to give the ODM and Raila Odinga an opportunity to leave the table with their pride intact, for the sake of the nation.


Abdul Mote
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written by a guest , January 06, 2008
Having a government of national unity would defeat the whole purpose of having the election in the first place (Kenyans deciding which group they wanted to govern their country).
And will less likely solve the problem, than gloss over it: until the next time a situation arises where one or both sides contesting the elections feels they have to make sure of victory by 'any means necessary.'
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great article
written by MoAmin , January 06, 2008
Abdul,
Few people remember that the official end of multi-partyism in 1982 was in part the result of Moi's desire to kill of the tribal factionalism that was gripping the country.
I do not think that there is any real multi-party politics in Kenya. What we see are just tribal conglomerates coming together to put another tribal conglomerate out of office.
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Good insight.
written by Manea , January 06, 2008
No to coalition or GNU governing.
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written by aeichener , January 07, 2008
Mmmhhmmm... the Big Liidaah (tm) is now strutting around, thumping his chest loudly and declaring that he will not be part in any government of national unity.

Might be his own loss, if Kibaki's team are intelligent to exploit this blunder properly. And of course, Kalonzo is the one to benefit from it; he who just loudly cried that the pie be not divided before he has not designated his own favourite pieces. So, it might become a government of national majority; the only question how many ODM MPs the future coalition government can induce to change over to their camp.

Alexander
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I am against the GNU
written by benadede , January 07, 2008
I see the GNU coming, I see some ODM MPs joining it even as Raila does not. Personally, I think we are asking too much of Raila to join Kibaki in a GNU where he is subordinate to Kibaki. If they could not work together when they were in the same party (NARC), what has changed to make them be able to work together. If anything, Kibaki is on record several times during the campaigns saying that Raila was a hopless man who was given a job and could not do it. He has gone as far as saying that Raila cannot even raise chicken. Raila on his side has thrown equally venomous insults at Kibaki. These insults have been traded with abandon by the two men and their sidekicks since the 2005 Banana/Orange battles.
The scant respect the two and their supporters have shown each other and galvanized by lies and mutual suspicion and hate bodes ill for a GNU.
Also, having witnessed Kibaki refuse to honor their MoU in 2002, Raila wants guarantees from an international mediator. Kibaki on the other hand with his history of trashing agreements does not want an internatinal witness to their agreements.
Personally, I feel that the whole theory of GNU only helps to muzzle opposition to government excesses. The voters do not like it and that is why a lot of the beneficiaries of the GNU were voted out during the elections. It opens up avenues for sheer opportunism by MPs and blackmail of the president as was the case in the last parliament.
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written by Mfalme Jeta , January 07, 2008
The issue of a GNU is not gonna work. I don't want it to work because that undermines multiparty democracy, which is essential to put people like Raila and Kibaki in check. Besides, Raila tried that with NARC and it never worked.

The solution to this impasse is a caretaker government drawn from both PNU and ODM in preparation for a presidential election in 3 months. So technically Kibaki and Raila will be co-presidents. That will ensure a level playing field in preparation of the re-run. (I suspect Kibaki will not like this much) The co-presidents should have specific roles, so they don't step on each others' toes.

In the meantime, MPs should be sworn in and parliament should start conducting business and closing loopholes the executive could use to cause the kind of problem we find ourselves in after Kibaki rigged himself in. They should also design laws that makes tampering with votes a treasonable offense etc.

The presidential election race should be open to all just like the first one. I'd like to see what Kalonzo would do in that case. I doubt he'll jump in the race especially after the paltry votes he got. It'll be interesting if he puts his weight behind Kibaki because that would add about 800,000 more votes to Kibaki.

According to records by the media, Kibaki rigged about 1,000,000 votes to beat Raila by less than 300,000 votes. So it seems as if Raila had about a 700,000 advantage over Kibaki in the last election. So a Kalonzo boost would be a significant help to Kibaki.

But Kibaki is likely to suffer a backlash for rigging and causing so much mayhem in the nation. The effect could be an even larger voter turnout in Raila's strongholds and that would definitely give Raila an upper hand.

Either way, a re-run is not an assured win for Kibaki or Raila especially if Kalonzo decides to throw his weight behind one of the candidates.

I want Raila to win. Kibaki talks like a retard. Kule Kule and pale pale nonsense ain't for me. And that woman Rucy... I rest my case.

Another idea that everybody is thinking about but would not dare talk about here is performing a coup-de-etat -- A bloodless one. Overthrowing Kibaki will definitely make you a hero in 6 provinces in Kenya. Not bad at all. I call that starting on a strong footing. And the good thing about this is anybody can do it and you don't need permission. I'm considering it very seriously, too bad I'm so far away and I won't be getting a vacation anytime soon.
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multi(ethnic)parties must go
written by Jayawardene , January 07, 2008
Why do we insist on donning fig leaves which barely hide our collective shame.

Multi party politics in Kenya can be likened to a foreign species of plant. We can try as we might to impose it here by grafting it upon our political stock but it will never result in anything more than to legitimise tribal based political outfits which should be illegal in any modern democracy.

Daniel Arap Moi's was a lone voice in the wilderness when he warned us that 'multi-party' would bring us nothing but misery and death. The western media and governments ever keen to impose their will upon us piled on the pressure and Moi relented. More and more will regret the day Section 2A was repealed.
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re: multi(ethnic)parties must
written by manta ray , January 07, 2008
Why do we insist on donning fig leaves which barely hide our collective shame.

Multi party politics in Kenya can be likened to a foreign species of plant. We can try as we might to impose it here by grafting it upon our political stock but it will never result in anything more than to legitimise tribal based political outfits which should be illegal in any modern democracy.

Daniel Arap Moi's was a lone voice in the wilderness when he warned us that 'multi-party' would bring us nothing but misery and death. The western media and governments ever keen to impose their will upon us piled on the pressure and Moi relented. More and more will regret the day Section 2A was repealed.



You are quite justified in your sentiments. However, reverting to a single party is not and can never be the answer. I think the answer is to address the issue of tribalism once and for all by outlawing its overt usage and exploitation and making it a very, very expensive crime to commit. This will reign in our low-life politicians. Why do you think we end up with gangsters in thousand dollar suits masquerading as leaders? Answer: Because the easiest way to mobilise ignorant rural folk around you is to appeal to base fears about ingrained stereotypes about other tribes, then you have them.
Once politics is regulated and in such a way that there is massive civic education to inform ALL the people about what to expect from wannabe leaders, the ability to address issues will naturally become the criteria on which we elect leaders. Political parties can then compete as ideas machines.
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New elections-a simple query
written by mainat , January 07, 2008
To those hyping on about an election within 3 months or even one yr, i've a simpleton's query. We now have 250,000+ displaced from RV and elsewhere, mainly natives, aren't they registered to vote in RV? The violence vs PNU/ODM voters now means those who have been able to stay on will be fearful of voting the same way knowing what maybe in store for them. This will impact % by province especially in RV where Kibz just made the 25%. So why should he go for a new election?
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Not all is lost
written by abdulmote , January 07, 2008
To those hyping on about an election within 3 months or even one yr, i've a simpleton's query. We now have 250,000+ displaced from RV and elsewhere, mainly natives, aren't they registered to vote in RV? The violence vs PNU/ODM voters now means those who have been able to stay on will be fearful of voting the same way knowing what maybe in store for them.


The voting exercise itself is meant to be by secret ballot, therefore 'no one' is supposed 'know' who voted how without the voter releasing that information. Besides, there are many for example, who actually voted for ODM, but somehow found themselves being victimised on assumption of having voted for PNU! Thier ethnicity is what fuelled the assumption of one's voting probability.

However, you also touch upon a significant factor were the re-elections to be called in the near future as some are suggesting. Such reality cannot be ignored since it changes the whole structure of the voting influence and the possible outcome.

Considerable amount of people have been misplaced and as a result there has been a significant change in the geographical dynamics of the electorate.
Obviously there would also be the inevitable change in the way the electorate is going to vote, especially after taking into consideration the events still unfolding following the elections just gone.

Having said that, these are changes that should not nullify the need for the presidential re-election altogether. We must bear in mind that a good many may be just temporary changes that will eventually settle given time. How fast such settlements are going to take place will be dependant upon various other factors, particularly where they may have to be influenced by our so called 'politicians' in order to be realised.

And at the same time, the electorate must be ready to be confronted with completely different and unanticipated voters' dynamics. We must acknowledge the fact that the events of the last few days have played an important role in changing the political alliances and support the competitors have enjoyed during the elections just gone. It will certainly be interesting to be able to observe those changes as they appear, but at this stage it must be difficult for anybody to have a clear projection of how it is possibly going to be.
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re: New elections-a simple que
written by manta ray , January 07, 2008
To those hyping on about an election within 3 months or even one yr, i've a simpleton's query. We now have 250,000+ displaced from RV and elsewhere, mainly natives, aren't they registered to vote in RV? The violence vs PNU/ODM voters now means those who have been able to stay on will be fearful of voting the same way knowing what maybe in store for them. This will impact % by province especially in RV where Kibz just made the 25%. So why should he go for a new election?




They can vote where they have sought refuge, and to make sure that ethnic cleansing does not make political hay for its instigators, the refugees should vote as registered voters of the areas from where they were displaced.
That will teach the perps a lesson, that barbarism and primitive savagery can not be allowed to be used as an instrument for subverting the human and civil rights of any Kenyan citizen.
If you hear howls of protest from any quarters, then you will know who instigated the mayhem, and who the guilty are.
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written by a guest , January 08, 2008
The Great Reader (read leader) Kibaki, who 'won' the erection (election) will ultimately resort to the tricks taught him by the old fox Jomo: divide-and-rule. Unity between the opposition would spell doom for Kibaki, hence his resort to this desperate tactic.


Hey foks, whatever happened to Kazi ienderee?

Kibaki's goose is cooked.
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