Every election is a high stakes affair, involving as always aggressive campaigning, passionate speeches, oratory to rally the troops, spin in newspapers, flyering, lies -contortions and outright falsification and even the macho grandstanding that we as Kenyans have come to accept as part and parcel of our political culture. That is standard fare, expected and a part of the competitive aspect of modern politics.

But some actions go a little too far, especially because once committed they unleash forces that cannot be restrained and whose effect will be most difficult to mitigate against. What the ODM has introduced in this election, is a determined effort to decide that any result that does not have them winning both State House and Parliament has been arrived at by a nefarious rigging scheme. This crusade is so determined and nothing it seems is too large a stretch for it. Not content with demonising Steadman the pollsters, they are now determined to paint a picture using some alien logic of a collusion by the media and the all the pollsters to give a low 40s approval figure to Raila Odinga, when he instead should have a 55% backing.

This idea, that ODM already has the election sewn up and that the government is planning to rig it out of its legitimate victory has been repeated so often, and given such prominence by the ODM friendly East African Standard, and the party’s top officials that is now accepted in many quarters as truth. This is especially the case given two crucial characteristics of our electorate. The first is that the majority live in concentrations where one candidate or party holds sway. A man living in Oyugis for example or in Kerugoya is unlikely to have met more than five people of political persuasion different than his own. 

Secondly, the ODM has proved very adept at drawing out large crowds, and their candidate is without a doubt the most skilful of the candidates on the pulpit. These large numbers, beamed about the country indicate the ODM leader's popularity with the youth and the unemployed; they indicate the curious thrall in which the colourful ODM juggernaut holds large parts of the country. What these television and print images do not show however is in what standing the ODM leader is held by those employed in activities that would preclude their attendance of his rallies, it does not reflect the evolution of perception or indeed give a breakdown across the different national regions.

It may be important at this point to remind Kenyans of the 1997 campaign of Charity Ngilu. The airtime accorded her, the seeming large numbers of voters, the veritable euphoria she imbued the country in collided with reality on the announcement of the election results. She managed a respectable fourth, showing that in elections, the perception of doing well and the reality are often two vastly different things.

But back to the ODM's rigging allegations, do they bear any legitimacy? Should they be taken seriously? Is it really possible in this day that a general election is rigged in Kenya, and that this effort goes undiscovered? The ODM's fiction starts with the President employing a pliant list of Electoral Commissioners to aid his campaign effort. This list of commissioners is then supposed to appoint another suggestible set of election officials, not just at their headquarters in Nairobi, but also at the polling stations all around Kenya. So the theory goes, there is a conspiracy afoot, involving some thousands of Kenyans, spread all across the country, to ensure that polling stations are opened late, that ballots are not available, that boxes are stuffed with votes marked Kibaki, that tallies are fudged and finally that results different than the electorates wishes are announced.

Bizarrely also, this scheme is alleged to involve the very Electoral Commission's chairman who the ODM parties were so keen on retaining just weeks ago. The normally authoritarian Samuel Kivuitu, it is suggested, has turned into a helpless old man, unable to stem the rigging efforts of his fellow commissioners and of his subordinates at the grassroots.

These fantasies, unhindered by a media that has totally abdicated its role as public watchman, are based on ignorance of the fact that there are already massive measures in place by the political parties, local NGOs and foreign observers to ensure that the election is regulated in compliance with the law. They also choose to ignore the fact that since the 2002 elections, the ECK pays a mere coordinating role with the actual counting taking place at the polling station, rather than at some underground point of rigging. But this is not private knowledge; the ODM knows that the government cannot rig the election. Even more, the ECK chairman has indulged the Orange parties and has bent over backwards to prove to them that there is nothing untoward going on. Still, they persist, and yesterday the ODM’s presidential candidate was in meetings with the American Ambassador, seeking to internationalise the issue of his most fertile imagination.

These imaginings are a political ploy, straight out of the perpetual victim philosophy that has caused its candidate to repeatedly allege that the State had hired assassins to finish him off. So should we pay him any mind? Yes, Raila’s cries must not be ignored because they influence many Kenyans perception and are from his lips a powerful cudgel, as dishonest and irritating as they may be. It is commendable that the ECK is doing everything in its power to prove Raila’s claims not only untrue but also unreasonable. The claims about the black-book and double registrations for example have been properly dealt with and with 20,000 observers from the EU alone; there will be no voting station that is unwatched.

It is clear what the ODM parties are trying to do. Their employment of the talents of Dick Morris evinces this desire to win at all costs, fair or foul and it is a strategy that Kenya can ill afford. Dick Morris, for those Kenyans who may have forgotten is particularly famous for his involvement in the ‘revolution’ of the Ukraine where his strategy was to flood the streets with flag-carrying protesters after the election, thereby creating the perception of a defeated government that had rigged itself back into office. Just like in the Ukraine, it is clear that in Kenya, an opposition win is the desired result for both the British and the American governments. These governments then went on to underwrite the sustained effort of the demonstrations and its international portrayal as a display of democratic will, against an unpopular government never mind that half the country supported the incumbent. The international media are already being alerted to the role they will be required to play in this coup, a make-believe spontaneous ‘Orange Revolution’ coming to our streets if Raila and his shadowy allies are not pleased with the election result.

The election is unlikely to be glitch free, and the need to vigilance can hardly be overstated but it is also fact that such a large conspiracy as the ODM suggests would not go off  succesfully. Indeed so slim are its chances of success, that it is extrememly unlikely that any such attempt will even be made. There is a big difference between random electoral failures and a concerted campaign to cheat at the elections. Any such scheme would long ago have been discovered, not just for its sheer unwieldy nature, but also because the polling officials are drawn from all corners of the country and have in all likelihood support for all shades of political opinion, including being supportive of the ODM.

The media must now  point out to Kenyans that the national population dispersion is such that the president may be dominant in only two provinces, but still have a large percentage nationwide. Articles such as Dennis Onyango’s in the Standard or Raila Odinga’s statement that because he was leading in all but two provinces and only just in the national polls, then the opinion polls were definitely biased will only serve to incite the public who cannot be expected to comprehend basic statistics. Statements such as ODM secretary general Anyang’ Nyong’o’s assertion that it is impossible to close a five point gap in the approval ratings also fly against reason, especially as earlier in this very year, his party's candidate lagged far behind in the opinion polls. To the innocent mwananchi, already driven into frenzy by the heat and passion of the campaign period, it will be difficult to accept defeat after such rhetoric. Worst of all, this is an attempt at blackmail against the PNU, essentially a demand that the PNU stop campaigning and concede the election, or else...

It is importantthat in these final days before the elections, Kenyans are prepared not for war, but for a calming down from this heightened political state. It is good that both parties have adopted a Kazi themed slogan, Kazi Ianze Sasa or Kazi Iendelee. It is in this light that we must see the December 27 election; it should represent a simple bump in the country's calendar, with a quick reversion to the tasks of building the nation regardless of what party wins. The ODM, if they are in possession of any evidence on rigging should take it to the police, take it to the media.Random public statements that wage a passionate war against common sense, and attempt the most cynical incitement are sure to have devastating consequences in a country already as charged and polarised as ours.