On hearing that Kalonzo Musyoka was, ‘defecting to LPK but remaining in ODM-K, my first
reaction was that it was a clever move, allowing him to manoeuvre within the movement free from the constrictions of LDP.
Kalonzo also required a position for his Presidential Campaign from which he
could be seen as a party leader, which stance was impossible in the Liberal Democractic Party
where he constantly played second fiddle to Raila- nevermind the the days last year
when he led in national opinion polls. The Labour Party of Kenya was the junior partner in ODM-K, and
if he could somehow rope in Uhuru's KANU, then he could lead a 60% share
in ODM-K a sizeable chunk considering the present domination of the Raila juggernaut over Orange House.
As we shall see, Kalonzo may have also made a serious political mistake with this decision!
The immediate result of this move
was the re-alignment of Kalonzo Musyoka with Daniel Maanzo, the now famous
paper chairman of ODM especially since there was a growing problem over
the issue of party officials. As long as Maanzo was the registered
party chairperson, he was a man necessary to have in your corner should
you decide to play dirty in your politics. Several people have actually
questioned how the Raila's advisors did not foresee this confusion.
 
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|
the two minute peace
photo EA StandardÂ
|
The media was awash on Friday with news of the resignation and then the quick retraction of Abraham Chepkonga who is registered as the
Secretary-General of ODM-K . This was quickly followed by the announcement by both Mutula Kilonzo and Julia Ojiambo, the political vice-chairpersons of
ODM ( along with the Henry Kosgey- Anyang' Nyong'o group) that they were actually not elected and hence should not be
registered as party officials. This renunciation of power by the two vice-chairs tells you just how earnest the fight for the ownership of the
registered officials is.
The importance of these officials
is premised on the fact that the ODM constitution deposited with the
Registrar of Societies indicates that the party chairman and secretary
general will sign the nomination papers of the party nominees come the
elections. This makes the Maanzo- Chepkonga group of officials very powerful, especially should ODM-K be unable to conduct elections before the General Elections are announced.
It is therefore safe to say today
that Kalonzo has won a battle of party official ownership.
Unfortunately, you cannot say that he has won the party for himself. ODM-K
over the last 18 months has built itself a unique brand that many
Kenyans try to identify with. But ODM the organisation is like a
tattered trouser with patches holding it together where if one fell off
the rest of the trouser would follow suit. A Kenyan friend of mine visiting
from Afghanistan where he is working with the UN described ODM as moto ya makaratasi which simply means it is a paper fire that dies quickly. Eighteen months is a long time, but ODM-K is seriously ailing!
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no longer at ease
|
Back on to the politics of
scheming. Kalonzo's other reason for his action was that he realised
that Raila was going to push him out of the ODM-K race by any means possible. With that and the
realisation that a Kalonzo candidature outside of ODM is a waste of
time, he decided that it would be him that forced Raila out of the party! The
machinations started quite sometime back where Kalonzo always ensured
that he took the differing position from what Raila wanted. He
flip-flopped on the consensus and delegates' nomination system and this
happened every time Raila conceded to either of the methods. Now Raila Odinga was to be faced with a dilemma of either fighting Kalonzo
internally through the nomination process and in the process force
Kalonzo out of the party or in the alternative he could have swallowed
humble pie and moved to another party where he would be the candidate. From this new party position he would
still beat Kalonzo but thus enervated challenging the incumbent would end in certain failure. This phantom of another electoral defeat for the Lang'ata MP was reinforced by the fact that he did not at any cost want to add another party to his CV!
The problem with ODM-K was its
original formation structure. Political leaders came into ODM-K representing
their communities as their voting blocks with which they would
negotiate for power positions come the elections. This structure
created a dependency on the leaders to deliver their communities' votes
to the ODM machine, but it also opened the possibility of creating
expectations in the communities that their ‘own' would become
president. So as the politicians went round the country, it was
important to preach unity to keep these communities under lock and key.
Now the time of reckoning has come and the next few weeks will even see
more re-alignments with their common rival- the incumbent- ending up the beneficiaryof their internecine struggle.
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| Â things fall apart |
So can this move salvage Kalonzo's
presidential hopes? Before I answer this, let us bring in the so-called
Iron Lady called Charity Ngilu. Kalonzo and Ngilu have over the years
fought to retain supremacy in Kamba politics. Following the actions of
Kalonzo, the Raila camp has been working hard to woo Ngilu into their
camp and her recent activities are a pointer at what she is looking
for. Relevance. Political relevance! If she joined Raila, then it would
be for the purpose of shoring up the Kamba vote in ODM, and stealing the
thunder from Kalonzo. But I do not think that Ngilu would do this to Kalonzo for the simple reason that Akamba votes are split
between Kalonzo and Kibaki with Ngilu being the lone ranger here! The
reason the government allows Ngilu to be incarcerated is simply that
she has no political value even if she was jailed and Kibaki would not
want to sack her as this would only make a matyr of her.
Kalonzo was a very good
presidential candidate that would have appealed to many Kenyans had he
stayed in a United ODM, but this is now water under the bridge. Kalonzo
cannot muster enough national appeal to win the race, so it will be a
futile exercise and he cannot count on the luck of Kibaki in the coming
years. Kenyans are not as anti-Kibaki as they were against Moi and
anything he represented in 2002, so a magical Kalonzo tosha may
not materialise. He also cannot join the Kibaki group as he has
demonised the lot many times over, and he would therefore be unwelcome. Instead his fate will be like that of other presidential wannabes like Koigi Wamwere and Wangari
Maathai.
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