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Written by George Nyangweso
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Sunday, 30 September 2007 |
President Mwai Kibaki trails his fierce rival Raila Odinga in Kenya's latest electioral opinion polls. Even this early in the game, the margin seems unassailable as Raila moves into a position of dominance across the regions.
With two to three months
remaining to the General Elections, the incumbent trails his main opponent by 11 percentage points in the latest
Steadman opinion polls. The polling agency has in the past been accused of being pro-Kibaki, a factor that led to the polls being received with a pinch of salt. If we take these accusations as true, then the published poll figures are probably heavily discounted and the margin in the ODM leader's favour is likely larger.
The question then is whether the President can possibly reverse this disadvantage in the next few weeks. This, massive fraud or the egregious vagaries of the supernatural aside, seems very unlikely. The extant 11% margin between State House and Lang'ata MP Raila translates to about 1.5 million registered voters. If 60 % of these Kenyans cast their votes, Kibaki will need to steal at least 900,000 votes to win the elections. This
is a humongous task even for two professional riggers like himself and
his mentor the Professor of Political and Economic Fraud. What options then are open to the president?
- -A miracle? - Prayer is an option open to everyone, but even this option is unlikely to be of much use to the MP for Othaya. Answers from God are unlikely to be on the horizon, especially not
after the Head of State's extra-ordinary perfidy that has robbed an already desperate nation of hope, while he remorselessly maintained a thick skin and tried to play Mr. Nice Guy.
- -Rigging? - May be an option but one that will need the utmost in craft. A rigging president has to be very careful that his machinations do not lash back at him and send the country
into an intifada. Even then, not only is the mood and attentiveness in the country not favorable to this option, but the margin is far too wide for a redemptive operation that will go unnoticed.
- -Woo Kalonzo to his side? This would reduce the margin making it possible for the president's men to rig the smaller difference. A possibility, but far too complicated and no guarantee of success especially if Charity Ngilu gains a position of prominence in the ODM hierarchy.
- -Lastly, the president could simply throw in the towel and avoid a humiliating beating at the polls. While this does not at first glance seem like an attractive option, I would strongly consider this option if I was the president, especially considering the disorganised mess that is the PNU. The
status of this conglomeration of disjointed and disordered parties with
no political or organisational bearing can only deteriorate in the coming weeks as cut-throat competition for psychophants certificates takes hold.
It is not rocket science to conclude that President Kibaki's options are limited to the third option. ODM-K presidential candidate Kalonzo
Musyoka is on record in today's Standard declaring that he has a big surprise for those
who think they are popular, clearly referring to ODM's Pentagon. His recent outbursts have without an exception been attacks on his erstwhile brothers in ODM and not Kibaki who is supposed to be their common foe.
The president on his part has been quiet for 4 yrs and 9 months and has only now resurrected the cheek to ask that Kenyans vote for him. How docile or obtuse could Kenyans possibly be? We Kenyans are it is true, a very patient people but we are definitely not so lacking in self-respect as to be taken in so easily. The likes of Mwai Kibaki, Daniel Arap Moi, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka have been overtaken by events. Their lack of insight and discernment into the prevailing political mood in the country has taken the better of them. Their best bet is to embrace their defeat as it envelopes them and permit as our peace from chaos and anarchy.
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Remember Clinton and Bush both trailed their respective challengers by double digits before the campaigns but both easily won reelection.
This situation is new for Kenyans but hardly unusual in established democracies. The public is now weighing the challenger but as the election approaches many will choose to remain with the known quantity and vote for the incumbent.
One thing I wish the pollsters would do is publish the margin of error in this polls. That would give us a more complete picture of the situation.