"In Murang'a, even a dog running on a Ford Asili ticket would have been elected" - Joseph Kamotho, 1993

Having thought about the arrangement as announced last Sunday, it would appear that Mwai Kibaki will, be the only candidate nominated on the PNU ticket whilst all other parliamentary and civic candidates will be elected through their parent parties. This means that parties such as KANU or Ford K, which have argued that they will, field their own candidates, will get their wish and still get their party supporters to support the Kibaki candidacy. So Ford-K, for example, will be in a position to field candidates in areas where it feels that it can win whilst KANU, DP, Shirikisho and others can do the same.

My understanding of this arrangement is that in a constituency such as Kiharu in Murang'a District, you can have KANU, DP and Narc-K fielding candidates in competition but the presidential candidate will only be one. This scenario can be replicated in Sirisia where Ford K and Kanu can field candidates but the supporters of either parties will be supporting Kibaki.

former Kiharu MP Kenneth Matiba

If this is the case, then we shall have for the first time, a scenario in which people elect their favourite candidate without looking at the party he belongs to or even without being bulldozed into electing someone simply because he belongs to the party of the presidential candidate they support. In the last three multi-party elections, Kenyans witnessed the "three-piece" election phenomenon initially promoted by Ford-Asili's Kenneth Matiba in 1992 and repeated again in 1997 and 2002. The problem with this phenomenon is that it was euphoria driven and also ended up giving Kenyans leaders who were not competent to lead but who were rewarded for their affiliation with the party's head honchos.  As a result, Kenyans have in the last three elections been saddled with the most lacklustre MPs who have not spent their time in parliament doing anything more substantial than collecting their paycheques.

It is on this basis that I feel that Kenyans will be the winners if they ultimately end up getting the leaders who are popular by right as opposed to being rammed down their throats through rigged nomination processes and complimentary nomination certificates. So in Kiambaa, we do not have to elect Karume because he is a Kibaki man. We can now elect Githunguri on Kanu ticket if he is the more popular one since he will also be on the president's side. Every party will under the circumstances be forced to ensure that their nomination process apart from being transparent also ensures that they have the most popular candidate capable of winning in the constituency since it is the numbers that each party brings that will determine how Kibaki rewards them in allocation of government posts! It also ensures that Kibaki is not saddled by minority parties without representation making unnecessary demands on him.

This arrangement should be easy to deal with in areas where both ODM's have little influence or chance of winning. The challenge will be in areas such as urban areas where the vote could go either way where such an arrangement where all alliance parties field candidates comes to play. I would expect that PNU would come up with a scheme where they agree to one candidate facing the ODM parties so that they do not split the parliamentary seats on the basis that the Kibaki could win the constituency vote but multiple party candidates will split the vote giving ODM the parliamentary seat.

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written by Marangu , September 20, 2007

Kamale:
Very well said Sir, I think the current re alignments are healthy, as you suggest, voting as a block has been with us for a long time and it is part of the reason we have had people obtain a snoozing ticket to perliament. I agree that the more open the field the better, the prospect of a ODM candidate for president,a Kanu candidate for MP and a Narc candidate for Councillor will be an indication of maturity of our politics.

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written by Hon , September 20, 2007

The kind of political maturity to be only seen in a capitalist democracy.
I do hope then that democracy will feed on capitalism, not the other way round.

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Bad idea
written by Man R , September 21, 2007

PNU is a bad idea for Kenyans. Basically what Kibaki is trying to sell Kenyans is a planless government. PNU will be worse than NARC, I doubt it'll even make it intact to this elections. While the idea of independent MP sounds great for Kenyans, we need the President and his team to articulate a plan. That will definitely not happen because already NARC-K, Shirikisho, FORD-K and DP have different ideologies.

PNU is a silly idea and Kibaki is headed to a defeat head-first in this vehicle.

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healthy for us.
written by Mr.Kay , September 21, 2007

it's a good development for our democracy. I remember in 2002 having to vote for an MP I don not like at all because of the 3-piece voting, and the euphoria. I have regretted that decision ever since. This is a sign of politics maturing....the days of one party dictatorship are long gone.

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Kibaki\'s undemocratic democra
written by Job , September 21, 2007

PANU's style of entry into Kenya's democratic arena (Kibaki's coronation)-bad bad idea for democracy.Politically it's also a disastrous idea.

Even popular party leaders must prove their popularity at the nomination ballot. They must first identify with/ or form, a party, internalize it's ideals and constitution, and engage it's membership. That's basically what the democratic process is about. That's a key tenent of multi-party democracy.

Let's look at Kibaki's PNU coronation. The choreographed event could be said to depict, in the socio-political sense, a lazy and unprincipled man's shortcut to democracy. Especially when done at the eleventh hour.

Democratic history was made on the day of PANU's launch. How could you nominate a party's presidential candidate on the same day it's being unveiled to the nation for the first time?

All Kibaki cunningly did was to: avoid the advance public scrutiny from a diverse & national grassroots party base; avoid associating with publicly espoused PANU ideals and manifestos; avoid facing challenge at the primary contest; avoid dirtying his hands in grassroots participatory campaigns; avoid hobnobbing with the ordinary rank and file spread across Kenya popularizing PANU.

Thus, Kibaki's shortcut was to unveil a new party, PNU (with no members, no constitution & no manifesto) then rent a crowd (figuratively) for a photo opportunity at KICC. He attempted to connotate the drama by parading diverse regional elites (akina Nyachae Ford-P, Kombo Ford-K & Mwakwere Shirikisho) and boom, that was it for the formality and headache of party nomination. That was not surprising coming from Kibaki who seems to place very little value in party politics.

It will be very hard to imagine Kibaki burning the mid-night oil participating in multi-party democracy. You will not find him initiating friendship bridging and party building; or engaging in primary campaigns; or unveiling party ideals and manifesto: or contesting in a competitive nomination contest. That's too much work in Kibaki's books, there is always a shortcut.

This is very much in contrast to rival grassroots hobnobber(s) and their rally-loving, pro-people parties. Such challengers often start by building and strengthening their parties,spelling out their out constitution, manifesto and ideals, then freely and democratically battling for nomination. Those who lose may stick in the same party, stumping for the winner. That alone is a breath of fresh, democratic air.

Now compare that with PANUs launch cum nomination without delegates or registered membership. The PANU idea was essentially what Moi used to do in 80s, remember TV footage scenes of the whole nation being sent (by TV/Radio) to Uhuru Park, where Moi is sitting cozy alongside his sycophants at the podium,...the camera zooming at a clock set on stage,......with background singing of Tawala Kenya Tawala,.......waiting for any "challenger(s)" for Baba Moi's seat,.... until Saa Sita Kamili,.....when Baba Taifa would be declared unopposed and again President.

The PANU launch was the 2007 Kibaki version of the circus above. Politically what will PANU achieve,...confusion and more confusion. Expect three to four Kibaki supporting parliamentary aspirants all running and splitting their votes, while ODM cruises easily on most contestable seats. Cheers.

Job

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new democracy, doubt it!
written by Dave Nyambati , September 21, 2007

Democracies have a unique way of morphing to adapt to a particular country once introduced. The era of party politics has ended - never again will a Kenyan president be elected without a strong coalition.

The bad news, and it is bad, is that the member parties that form these coalitions are strung along ethnic lines. This is a fertile breeding ground for mistrust, which leads to hate and animosity. I doubt too many of these coalitions will last intact past their year of election.

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written by Stephen Wanyama , September 21, 2007

Hmmm, how so very easy it would be to replicate Job's lament of the PANU coronation, with the slight difference of replacing ODM where we have PANU.
One could also add the fact that Raila's coronation involved stuffing-ballot boxes, putting up candidates who had no chance of ever winning, and bullying the only credible opponent out of the party. So much for democracy.
Kibaki and Raila are pursuing the exact same tactic, using regional chieftains to gain votes for them. Hence Raila's flirtation with the likes of Njonjo, or his weird relationship with Balala, his even weirder relationship with Ntimama, his newly revealed dalliance with Cyrus the Virus ,his courting of the Kosgeis and most recently his marriage to Musalia. And then there's Charity, the one that's playing hard to get. Don't begrudge Kibaki his turn at the wheel of love.
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Now, I have been warned that this site is about issues, and not people. So let's get to the politics of it. While I agree with Kamale's suggestion that this could be the way to democracy, I am afraid the fact that this was neither planned, nor agreed upon by all players will quickly doom it to failure. Amir Ibrahim had run a piece here recently also calling it Kibaki's master-stroke. I would have agreed at the time, but now I see that it is also a minefield waiting to explode, especially because the President as usual fails to provide any sort of leadership.

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re: Bad idea
written by Kamale , September 21, 2007

PNU is a bad idea for Kenyans. Basically what Kibaki is trying to sell Kenyans is a planless government. PNU will be worse than NARC, I doubt it'll even make it intact to this elections. While the idea of independent MP sounds great for Kenyans, we need the President and his team to articulate a plan. That will definitely not happen because already NARC-K, Shirikisho, FORD-K and DP have different ideologies.

PNU is a silly idea and Kibaki is headed to a defeat head-first in this vehicle.

Man R,

You are wrong as seriously no political party in Kenya has an ideology and all the parties are simply vehicles for the attainment of power. I did not suggest that we have independent candidate though this would be agood idea, but actually parties having members who are strong enough to be elected because they are popular and are not just beneficiaries of the running euphoria.

That is why we hear of a certain politician's wife collecting 2 million shillings in exchange of a NARC nomination certificate for constituencies in western Kenya in 2002. The point being it was the man who bid the highest that got elected on the basis of the 'dog' analogy by Kamotho!!

The PNU plan eliminates this corruption of democracy.

Job and yourself see the plan as unworkable when Kibaki wins the next elections. I am not sure why you do not see the plot as one where Kibaki will appoint his government from amongst MPs elected in the name of parties within the PNU alliance. Each party will be rewarded on the basis of the seats it brings to the alliance so if you bring one seat and the other party brings in 30 seats, then the stronger party should have a larger say in government.

Not all of us are privy to the power sharing arrangement PNU has made, hence it is premature to suggest that PNU could go the NARC way since we know what happened with the NARC arrangement, and it would be foolhardy for the PNU alliance to make similar mistakes.

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ceremonial
written by Jayawardene , September 21, 2007

Actually this could just be his masterstroke. Why wait forever for a new constitution.

We now have the makings of a country ruled by a prime minister selected by ceremonial president.

Whoever wins prepare for interesting times ahead.

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written by Ssembonge , September 21, 2007

This may be the panacea to the political rot in Kenya. Essentially, we'll have a powerless government but it may worsen corruption as the government will be at the mercy of MPs.

Essentially Kibaki may have the most number of aspirants campaigning for him.

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written by joe , September 21, 2007

why dont we allow independent candidates. I think thats the key to creating true parties. but politicians will never allow this to happen

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Someone educate me
written by Don , September 22, 2007

If Kibaki wins, as the only PANU MP in Parliament, would it be constitutional for him to form a Government? How would the House determine the Leader of Government Business and the opposition parties, when all individual parties will be larger than the president's party? More so, if Kibaki loses, how will the Speaker determine who becomes the leader of the official opposition? Could we be facing the prospect of a very weak official opposition of 30+ MPs?

This PANU arrangement is pretty strange to me, unless am just dimwitted.

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written by emmo opoti , September 22, 2007

Don,
I am likely just as ignorant as you are, but it seems to me that these are all efforts at achieving electoral victory, with little concern for the thereafter.
Our loose interpretation of the constitution has led to this. Strictly speaking, I would say NARC was itself illegal, and so was the GNU and this present PANU. But we have not shown much regard for laws in our time have we?

However, I think we can be sure that there will be a very strong opposition regardless of who wins primarily because the two sides are packed to the rafters with 'potentates' of some sort. This for me is one reason why there has not been much movement across party lines. For example, because ODM already has its Luhya contingent, there is little that Ford-K could offer it, and so even if they defected as a party, it is very unlikly that there will be much in it for them. Similarly, in Gusii, Nandi, Kipsigis and such districts, both sides have strong representation and there is very little a defector can offer.

Kibaki was able to steal away a large number of opposition MPs last time, because the LDP crowd left, i.e. there were seats to fill. Will Kibaki be head of the Official Opposition if he loses? I don't think so, he is likely to retire, and then there'll be a bonfire.
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I have long wondered, and perhaps Kamale can offer up an explanantion. What exactly is the plan B at PANU. Seriously, it makes no sense to have an octogenarian as your presidential candidate. What happens if he cannot complete his term? What happens if he loses? Is the assumption then that in the middle of the river they will quickly collect themselves around Saitoti or Uhuru or Beth Mugo?

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written by Don , September 22, 2007

Emmo,

You are right about our disregard for the rule of law. Kenya operates in a legal limbo where anything goes. The NARC model was easier to work with because all MPs came under its banner. In contrast, PANU will have Kibaki as its sole MP. I'll check the Constitution to see what it says about forming a Government. My worry about the official opposition is informed by the fact that the largest individual party forms the opposition. Since PANU will have only one MP, the largest constituent party will be the official opposition. And it's very possible that party could have about 30 MPs.

On your query whether Kibaki will head the Official Opposition, I say, he'll head nothing, not even the Government if re-elected. Kibaki's 2nd term ina wenyewe; the resultant mess would be too gross to fathom.

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written by emmo opoti , September 22, 2007

Don,
The PANU thing has not yet been finalised. It is likely something that was decided over a beer somewhere and then quickly receiving the imperial imprimatur, became required reading for all the parties.

The thing is, the President's core men control the purse strings, and with the Raila camp already bursting at the seams, it is very unlikely that there will be much difficulty in whipping the PANU people into a single unit, just as was done with NARC last time. Compromises will be made, they have to be made, with ODM so strong, every MP and aspirant will want the full backing of State House and a hefty campaign machine to counter the ODM one. This is not a campaign for solo runs.

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bad politics
written by chibole , September 22, 2007

as far as I am concern, the president made a terrible mistake, a mistake he will leave to regreat. he was elected on a coalition not a single party. but killing other parties,that is not democracy

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written by Kamale , September 24, 2007

Emmo/Don,

The constitution does indeed allow the president to form a government based on the PNU set up. The law says that the president can appoint MPs from another political party other than the one that nominated him, IF the other party agrees in writing that its members of parliament can be appointed to serve in the government.

I think that the plan as detailed infact lays the ground for a parliamentary system of government. I would like to imagine that any of the alliance parties that provides the bulk of MPs will form the bulk of the Kibaki government if he wins, and the leader of that party will the Leader of Government Business (prime minister??) as it is now proven that it need not be the vice president who is leader of government business!

Does Kibaki have a plan B? I have always held the view that Kibaki is a reluctant president and would not have been candidate but from pressure from his family and close circle of friends. So to him, I tend to think that if he is elected, to him that will be very good, and that if he is not elected, to him that will be okay? That surely must frustrate his supporters!!!

But reading today's press, I am saddened by the greed of the present crop of MPs who now say that Kibaki should not be elected as a lone PNU candidate. This is driven by the fears I explained in my original article, that unless they have Kibaki's name under their belt, they cannot be elected, so they will happily abandon Nark-K for PNU just to be with the president! I only hope Kibaki rejects that idea!

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PANUA
written by Man R , September 25, 2007

From it's inception, PANUA has all along been a bad idea. This machine will be plagued with more problems than the Egyptian Pharaoh wakati wa Musa. Wait until Kibaki dissolves the parliament.

Time will prove right.

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written by Tim Norwood , September 25, 2007

Kamale,
If your assertion is right, a brief look around does indeed declare that it looks like it, then what is in it for Kibaki's minders. If I was a rent-seeking businessman, or the president's political support, I would want to have in place

a) a candidate that would last long
b) a candidate that could win the election

You see a rudderless ship will very quickly have panic set in its staff, and with no one taking any responsibility, it will quickly find itself shattered to pieces on the rocks.

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Kibakis democracy
written by Juma - @ Jobs , September 25, 2007

Job, i think you have done a wonderful analysis. I agree with you to a great extent.

Party politics is a very crucial way of vetting a candidate's leadership capability. You can imagine a fellow who cannot hold a party together when not in power. Surely, that fellow cannot hold together a country.

We must accept that Kibaki is a PS material and a bureaucrat. Despite the gains made by this regime, Kenya needs a shake up first.He cannot provide that shake up.

I think we should avoid a PANU situation, it is entrenching tribalism more as each region looks for a party for bargaining purposes.

I just hope that the the current politics will usher in a new era of village economics coz right now it is up - bottom approach instead of bottom - up. A bottom up - approach gives more say to the village fellows to have a say.

How you define it is up to you but the village economics concept is what most Kenyans would want to see on the ground.

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PNU entrenches rogue machinati
written by Jaluth MaSoko , September 25, 2007

I think even the author of the post agrees tht this PNU business is just a charade for political convienience. It all about power retention. Nothing wrong with that, but please do it in a manner that makes sense. This can only happen in Kenya with an imperial presidency and murky laws. At one time we were the only country where they front bench exceeded the backbenchers. What a joke.
PNU concept will work in Central only.
In the other areas the "constituent parties" will duke it out with ODM too. and ODM without the confusion and baggage will sell it self much easier. as Ruto and Ntimama poignantly asked, which party are you gonna hold accountable post election when things go wrong?

As for ideology, the present PNU Govt and its leaders may not have one. But raila has his
-Devolution rather than centralization of power. Get the president out of the business of 'doling out' "goodies" as political bribes and instead institute a real plan for development. Its shameful the way this 'selective distribution' has been used to punish law abiding tax paying citizens.
-Land reform and settlement of squaters
-Investement in infrastructure
-Education reform
-Pan africanist agenda to enhance regional and continetal cooperation

We shall know more on saturday, with a manifesto launch

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