President Kibaki has now named what is being reported as half his cabinet. It appears, with the killing now stopped that the politicians have turned their efforts into what is a game of political chess.
It was with sheer disbelief that I reacted when I first heard the announcement. It became clear that instead of slamming the door shut in the ODM's face, the national leader has his foe Raila Odinga
exactly where he wants him.
| |
| 'Doors still open for ODM,' Kalonzo |
If I were to look in my crystal
ball and take a shot at the esoteric arts of prophecy I would say that this entire mess will be resolved by the iMP-electlementation
of the 2002 MoU where Kibaki will continue as President and Raila will
join the babinet as Prime Minister. I would not have wished for these
troubles in 1,000 years but I think we can all learn from them.
By now politicians will have realized what Tom Mboya,
Jomo Kenyatta and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga came by in the struggles of the early 60s - the plain fact that the Luo and Gikuyu
together make for a formidable force. We have learned this week (as
we did in 1969) that when the two communities are on opposing sides our soil is covered in blood and the air in the noises of terror. In communion however, they deliver national healing and the triuMP-electh of 1963 and 2002. We will then see Raila and Uhuru on a joint ticket for the leadership of the country, with Raila as president and Uhuru as his deputy, a reversal of the roles their fathers played in bringing independent Kenya away from the chains of colonial rule.
As a result of his age, and the back and forth of the campaign period, we have come to think of the President as being a weak political player, but he has us fooled. In our under-estimation of him we neglect to see that whereas our passions are from the heart, his age permits him no such sentimentality, he is shrewd and calculating. What he is handing down to us, is a lesson in strategy.
Here is what will pan out over the next five years, as the images in my crystal ball now relay to me.
- Mwai Kibaki will remain as President of Kenya even though he will take on a more ceremonial and less executive role, much like the chairman of a company's board of directors. Perhaps he will take to playing more golf again.
- -
- Kalonzo Musyoka will continue as Vice President but with an increasing tension between him, Kalonzo, Uhuru Kenyatta and George Saitoti as the Kibaki succession battle warms up. The former Vice President will soon fall by the way side, however.
- -
- ODM chief Raila Odinga will
join the Cabinet as Prime Minister or under present laws as a sort of primus inter pares, a de facto chief executive of the country and will do a good job.
- -
- The
losers in the ODM Pentagon will be William Ruto and Joe Nyagah. Nyagah is expendable in
a unity government particularly because, with his GEMA ethnicity he will find that quota already filled. William Ruto on his part will continue to fall from favour and the public light as the excesses of Eldoret begin to assail the national conscience.
- -
- Other Pentagon members like Kitui Central MP-elect Charity Ngilu, Mvita MP-elect Najib Balala and Sabatia MP-elect Musalia Mudavadi will be coopted into the Cabinet with Charity Ngilu likely returning as Minister of Health.
- -
- A
woman of Kalenjin extraction, more likely than anyone Aldai MP-elect Dr Sally Kosgei, will have a very senior
ministerial role in the new Cabinet, and will be a consigliere (in the best sense of the
word) to Raila and Kibaki. It is unlikely that she will get along with Kalonzo.
- -
- For
the next 3-3 1/2 years we will have cohesive development focused
government that will emphasize healing and the bringing together of
communities.
- -
- After 3 1/2 -4 years the posturing for the next
election will begin and the alliances will break down which will likely
result in the calling of early elections.
- -
- President Kibaki's successor will not be GEMA but will be "made" by the GEMA
community. For this reason, whoever courts this block most successfully will win.
- -
- Consequently Uhuru will be courted aggressively and will likely be the
VP after 2012. He will increasingly be seen as the next "king maker".
I see Raila, because of the lessons he learned from last year's effort,
likely to eclipse Kalonzo as the front runner.
- -
- While the
establishment politicians are doing their thing a stealthy star will
emerge who does not come from the existing power structures. I have no
idea who this will be but his/her popularity with the wananchi will not
sit well with the establishment, and they will (attempt to) get rid of
him or her. Hopefully it will not be an assassination but I would not put
anything past these folks.
- -
- Kenya will struggle for the next
year and a half, especially economically, but will be roaring again in 2012. The most acute
problems in the near term will come as a result of reduced output in
North Rift caused by the recent destruction. Already there is a severe milk shortage and job losses in some sectors.
- -
- Insurance costs for the havoc in Kisumu and Eldoret will be a great impediment but Kenya will pull through.
- -
- Growth in the 2009-10 period
will be driven by a housing and construction boom in Central Province.
The 250,000 people sent home from RVP to Central will cause this shift.
- -
- There will be a surge in violent crime in Central & Nairobi in the short term as displaced persons and those unemployed seek sustenance.
- -
- The
GEMA community will significantly reduce their investment outside of
Nairobi, Mombasa and Central Kenya (Central Province, Nakuru, Laikipia,
& Southern Eastern Province - Meru/Embu/Ukambani). The effects of this will largely hinge on whether locals can step in, and quickly assume the positions these business people previously held.
- -
- In the
short run there will be a regrettable backlash against employing
Kalenjins and possibly Luos in GEMA owned businesses, which will
further exacerbate the tensions. There are already rumours now of lay-offs in the construction industry and in manufacturing and processing concerns in Central Province.
- -
- At least one big kahuna from each of the Moi and the Kibaki 1 administrations will be convicted of grand corruption.
- -
- With
the exception of a few 'tokens' e.g. Sally Kosgei (see above) the
Kalenjin community will be the big losers in this power game (and also
the GEMA folks currently in ODM).
What do you see in your crystal ball?
|
PS: You dared to think: I enjoyed your article.