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Looking into the future PDF Print E-mail
Written by Joseph Hamisi Silaha   
Wednesday, 09 January 2008

President Kibaki has now named what is being reported as half his cabinet. It appears, with the killing now stopped that the politicians have turned their efforts into what is a game of political chess. 

It was with sheer disbelief that I reacted when I first heard the announcement. It became clear that instead of slamming the door shut in the ODM's face, the national leader has his foe Raila Odinga exactly where he wants him.

 
'Doors still open for ODM,' Kalonzo

If I were to look in my crystal ball and take a shot at the esoteric arts of prophecy I would say that this entire mess will be resolved by the iMP-electlementation of the 2002 MoU where Kibaki will continue as President and Raila will join the babinet as Prime Minister. I would not have wished for these troubles in 1,000 years but I think we can all learn from them.

By now politicians will have realized what Tom Mboya, Jomo Kenyatta and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga came by in the struggles of the early 60s - the plain fact that the Luo and Gikuyu together make for a formidable force. We have learned this week (as we did in 1969) that when the two communities are on opposing sides our soil is covered in blood and the air in the noises of terror. In communion however, they deliver national healing and the triuMP-electh of 1963 and 2002. We will then see Raila and Uhuru on a joint ticket for the leadership of the country, with Raila as president and Uhuru as his deputy, a reversal of the roles their fathers played in bringing independent Kenya  away from the  chains of colonial rule.

As a result of his age, and the back and forth of the campaign period, we have come to think of the President as being a weak political player, but he has us fooled. In our under-estimation of him we neglect to see that whereas our passions are from the heart, his age permits him no such sentimentality, he is shrewd and calculating. What he is handing down to us, is a lesson in strategy.

Here is what will pan out over the next five years, as the images in my crystal ball now relay to me.

  • Mwai Kibaki will remain as President of Kenya even though he will take on a more ceremonial and less executive role, much like the chairman of a company's board of directors. Perhaps he will take to playing more golf again.
  • -
  • Kalonzo Musyoka will continue as Vice President but with an increasing tension between him, Kalonzo, Uhuru Kenyatta and George Saitoti as the Kibaki succession battle warms up. The former Vice President will soon fall by the way side, however.
  • -
  • ODM chief Raila Odinga will join the Cabinet as Prime Minister or under present laws as a sort of primus inter pares, a de facto chief executive of the country and will do a good job.
  • -
  • The losers in the ODM Pentagon will be William Ruto and Joe Nyagah. Nyagah is expendable in a unity government particularly because, with his GEMA ethnicity he will find that quota already filled. William Ruto on his part will continue to fall from favour and the public light as the excesses of Eldoret begin to assail the national conscience.
  • -
  • Other Pentagon members like Kitui Central MP-elect Charity Ngilu, Mvita MP-elect Najib Balala and Sabatia MP-elect Musalia Mudavadi will be coopted into the Cabinet with Charity Ngilu likely returning as Minister of Health.
  • -
  • A woman of Kalenjin extraction, more likely than anyone Aldai MP-elect Dr Sally Kosgei, will have a very senior ministerial role in the new Cabinet, and will be a consigliere (in the best sense of the word) to Raila and Kibaki. It is unlikely that she will get along with Kalonzo.
  • -
  • For the next 3-3 1/2 years we will have cohesive development focused government that will emphasize healing and the bringing together of communities.
  • -
  • After 3 1/2 -4 years the posturing for the next election will begin and the alliances will break down which will likely result in the calling of early elections.
  • -
  • President Kibaki's successor will not be GEMA but will be "made" by the GEMA community.  For this reason, whoever courts this block most successfully will win.
  • -
  • Consequently Uhuru will be courted aggressively and will likely be the VP after 2012. He will increasingly be seen as the next "king maker".  I see Raila, because of the lessons he learned from last year's effort, likely to eclipse Kalonzo as the front runner.
  • -
  • While the establishment politicians are doing their thing a stealthy star will emerge who does not come from the existing power structures. I have no idea who this will be but his/her popularity with the wananchi will not sit well with the establishment, and they will (attempt to) get rid of him or her. Hopefully it will not be an assassination but I would not put anything past these folks.
  • -
  • Kenya will struggle for the next year and a half, especially economically, but will be roaring again in 2012. The most acute problems in the near term will come as a result of reduced output in North Rift caused by the recent destruction. Already there is a severe milk shortage and job losses in some sectors.
  • -
  • Insurance costs for the havoc in Kisumu and Eldoret will be a great impediment but Kenya will pull through.
  • -
  • Growth in the 2009-10 period will be driven by a housing and construction boom in Central Province. The 250,000 people sent home from RVP to Central will cause this shift.
  • -
  • There will be a surge in violent crime in Central & Nairobi in the short term as displaced persons and those unemployed seek sustenance.
  • -
  • The GEMA community will significantly reduce their investment outside of Nairobi, Mombasa and Central Kenya (Central Province, Nakuru, Laikipia, & Southern Eastern Province - Meru/Embu/Ukambani). The effects of this will largely hinge on whether locals can step in, and quickly assume the positions these business people previously held.
  • -
  • In the short run there will be a regrettable backlash against employing Kalenjins and possibly Luos in GEMA owned businesses, which will further exacerbate the tensions. There are already rumours now of lay-offs in the construction industry and in manufacturing and processing concerns in Central Province.
  • -
  • At least one big kahuna from each of the Moi and the Kibaki 1 administrations will be convicted of grand corruption.
  • -
  • With the exception of a few 'tokens' e.g. Sally Kosgei (see above) the Kalenjin community will be the big losers in this power game (and also the GEMA folks currently in ODM).

What do you see in your crystal ball?


Joseph Hamisi Silaha
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Interesting Analysis
written by Isindu Mwangaza , January 10, 2008
Peace-meal compromises and political accommodations will not work. Only a new constitution "The Bomas Draft" will restore and SECURE the country for posterity. This must be adopted before years end.

PS: You dared to think: I enjoyed your article.
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sorry, but no
written by Tim Norwood , January 10, 2008
Nice to see new writers here all the time. Now it seems to me clear why this is such a backward country. We backed Mwai Kibaki not because he was a Kikuyu prince but because he represented freedom.
The freedom and the dignity that men crave by right, the desire to fashion with our own hands, independent of any higher authority, a destiny for ourselves and our children.

We will reject still, even though we lose, any government of Uhuru or Raila for as long as we have breathe in us. The chains of slavery to a man, any man are gone from us and will never return. How I wish to see before the day of my dying Kenyans in the streets demanding 'Lower Taxes or No Peace' , Kenyans demanding 'Give us Land or No Peace', Kenyans demanding 'Give us Loans or No Peace.'
These are the things that grown-ups demonstrate about. Instead our democratic right is to kick Kirwa out of Parliament, to kick Karue out of Parliament, to kick Tuju out of Parliament and to demand in the place of these public servants, Give us Raila or give us Death.

How very romantic, and how fitting these chains of velvet.
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...
written by Liisa , January 10, 2008
Two reflections:
What can be the role of the parliement - rre the MPs important? And will they ever notice what the consequences of inciting their supporters are?
It looks that voters demonstrated maturity and voted. Will they want to do it next time after having experienced this chaos?
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no maturity
written by Tim Norwood , January 10, 2008
On the contrary Liisa, Kenyans showed themselves unworthy of those voting cards. I propose that the voting age be raised to 30, and only those with an income of at least 360,000/- a year be allowed to vote.

A people that can lock Raphael Tuju, Maoka Maore, Joe Khamisi, Mutahi Kagwe and Kipruto Kirwa out of parliament are not worthy of wielding the vote. Instead they give us Otieno Kajwang, Raila Odinga, Ephraim Maina, William Ruto, Sally Kosgei and Fred Gumo. Hell, a real comedian almost made it to parliament in Dagoretti!!
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written by jacob , January 10, 2008
william ruto and fred gumo need to face charges for crimes aganist humanity.
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written by Liisa , January 10, 2008
About maturity - I am not in the position to comment on whom people vote. But the news I saw seem to indicate that the voting generally went on smoothly.
How people decide whom to vote is a bit of a mystery anywhere in the world. Is it the promises - empty or real- , tears, looks, past performance, advice from someone, hopes and fears, or someting else that makes up people's minds the voting day...
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written by aeichener , January 10, 2008
An affront? Maybe; but I feel that Tim's exasperated suggestion is rather very 19th century "democracy". Not that everything was bad about the 19th century though.

Alexander
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written by aeichener , January 10, 2008
Dividing the country? What should be gained for Luos from making Nyanza (and parts of Western) a bantustan (or Luostan), a Jaluo homeland dependency where slaves ache under their dictatorial local bigman, impoverished and economically dependent on Uganda and Kenya who can use them as cheap labbour reservoir? That would be the only outcome of such a division: others would profit from it.

Alexander
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Mr.
written by Zam , January 10, 2008
Edited for clarity and conciseness of argument. Ed.

Assuming Raila and Kibaki do agree to 'work together' because of outside pressure, this will not work to our advantage. The mistrust between the two groups is at an all time high.
(...)
I have now come to the conclusion that dividing the country peacefully is better than forcefully!
(...)
Maybe the mediation should start focusing on dividing the country politically, more like US and Puerto Rico where movement is not restricted but each unit to have its own policies.
(...)
The reason we need to do this is so that, those scared to invest because of bad regime can start investing, those scared of Raila will have no more fear and between the two the competition will be fierce and taking off will be before 2015!
(...)
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Interesting
written by Any , January 10, 2008
Silaha,

As someone said above; you dared to think! Good read!

I'm with you on the Dark Horse (stealthy star)!! 2012 will be wide open.
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written by a guest , January 11, 2008
[Edited]
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re: re: no maturity
written by Wuod Aketch , January 11, 2008

Im I glad that Kalembe Ndile or Munyao are not in parliament? Hell yeah! The fact that central province got rid of 21 out of 29 MPs tells you the anger of the people - shame it was such a misguided anger!

You mean Kalembe is no more? We will miss this man in parliament.
These two Videos are great: Kalembe explains TIP
Kibaki was already showing signs of dictatorship here. Kenya politics Minister Dzoro Vs Assistant. Kalembe
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re: no maturity
written by Kamale , January 11, 2008
On the contrary Liisa, Kenyans showed themselves unworthy of those voting cards. I propose that the voting age be raised to 30, and only those with an income of at least 360,000/- a year be allowed to vote.
A people that can lock Raphael Tuju, Maoka Maore, Joe Khamisi, Mutahi Kagwe and Kipruto Kirwa out of parliament are not worthy of wielding the vote. Instead they give us Otieno Kajwang, Raila Odinga, Ephraim Maina, William Ruto, Sally Kosgei and Fred Gumo. Hell, a real comedian almost made it to parliament in Dagoretti!!

Were it not that your proposal would be seen as an affront on democracy (?????), your suggestion is perhaps a solution to some of the cartoons that end up in parliament. Am I glad that Kalembe Ndile or Munyao are not in parliament? Hell yeah! The fact that central province got rid of 21 out of 29 MPs tells you the anger of the people - shame it was such a misguided anger!
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Mr.
written by macjoe , January 16, 2008
AN OPEN LETTER TO SAMUEL KIVUITU, CHAIR OF THE ELECTORAL COMMISSION OF KENYA - ECK.

Mr. Kivuitu,

We've never met. It's unlikely we ever will. But, like every other Kenyan, I will remember you for the rest of my life. The nausea I feel at the mention of your name may recede. The bitterness and grief will not.

You had a mandate, Mr. Kivuitu. To deliver a free, fair and transparent election to the people of Kenya. You and your commission had 5 years to prepare. You had a tremendous pool of resources, skills, technical support, to draw on, including the experience and advice of your peers in the field - leaders and experts in governance, human rights, electoral process and constitutional law. You had the trust of 37 million Kenyans.

We believed it was going to happen. On December 27th, a record 65% of registered Kenyan voters rose as early as 4am to vote. Stood in lines for up to 10 hours, in the sun, without food, drink, toilet facilities. As the results came in, we cheered when minister after powerful minister lost their parliamentary seats. When the voters of Rift Valley categorically rejected the three sons of Daniel Arap Moi, the despot who looted Kenya for 24 years. The country spoke through the ballot, en masse, against the mind-blowing greed, corruption, human rights abuses, callous dismissal of Kenya's poor, that have characterised the Kibaki administration.


But Kibaki wasn't going to go. When it became clear that you were announcing vote tallies that differed from those counted and confirmed in the constituencies, there was a sudden power blackout at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre, where the returns were being announced. Hundreds of GSU (General Service Unit) paramilitaries suddenly marched in. Ejected all media except the government mouthpiece Kenya Broadcasting Corporation.

Fifteen minutes later, we watched, dumbfounded, as you declared Kibaki the winner. 30 minutes later, we watched in sickened disbelief and outrage, as you handed the announcement to Kibaki on the lawns of State House. Where the Chief Justice, strangely enough, had already arrived. Was waiting, fully robed, to hurriedly swear him in.

You betrayed us. Perhaps we'll never know when, or why, you made that decision. One rumour claims you were threatened with the execution of your entire family if you did not name Kibaki as presidential victor. When I heard it, I hoped it was true. Because at least then I could understand why you chose instead to plunge our country into civil war.

I don't believe that rumor any more. Not since you appeared on TV, looking tormented, sounding confused, contradicting yourself. Saying, among other things, that you did not resign because you "did not want the country to call me a coward", but you "cannot state with certainty that Kibaki won the election". Following that with the baffling statement "there are those around him [Kibaki] who should never have been born." The camera operator had a sense of irony - the camera shifted several times to the scroll on your wall that read: "Help Me, Jesus."

As the Kenya Chapter of the International Commission of Jurists rescinds the Jurist of the Year award they bestowed on you, as the Law Society of Kenya strikes you from their Roll of Honour and disbars you, I wonder what goes through your mind these days.

Do you think of the 300,000 Kenyans displaced from their homes, their lives? Of the thousands still trapped in police stations, churches, any refuge they can find, across the country? Without food, water, toilets, blankets? Of fields ready for harvest, razed to the ground? Of granaries filled with rotting grain, because no one can get to them? Of the Nairobi slum residents of Kibera, Mathare, Huruma, Dandora, ringed by GSU and police, denied exit, or access to medical treatment and emergency relief, for the crime of being poor in Kenya?

I bet you haven't made it to Jamhuri Park yet. But I'm sure you saw the news pictures of poor Americans, packed like battery chickens into their stadiums, when Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana. Imagine that here in Nairobi, Mr. Kivuitu. 75,000 Kenyans, crammed into a giant makeshift refugee camp. Our own Hurricane Kivuitu-Kibaki, driven by fire, rather than floods. By organized militia rather than crumbling levees. But the same root cause - the deep, colossal contempt of a tiny ruling class for the rest of humanity. Over 60% of our internal refugees are children. The human collateral damage of your decision.

And now, imagine grief, Mr. Kivuitu. Grief so fierce, so deep, it shreds the muscle fibres of your heart. Violation so terrible, it grinds down the very organs of your body, forces the remnants through your kidneys, for you to piss out in red water. Multiply that feeling by every Kenyan who has watched a loved one slashed to death in the past week. Every parent whose child lies, killed by police bullets, in the mortuaries of Nairobi, Kisumu, Eldoret. Everyone who has run sobbing from a burning home or church, hearing the screams of those left behind. Every woman, girl, gang-raped.

Do you sleep well these days, Mr. Kivuitu? I don't. I have nightmares. I wake with my heart pounding, slow tears trickling from the corners of my eyes, random phrases running through my head:

Remember how we felt in 2002 ? It's all gone. (Muthoni Wanyeki, ED of Kenya Human Rights Commission, on the night of December 30th, 2007, after Kibaki was illegally sworn in as president).

There is a crime here that goes beyond recrimination. There is a sorrow here that weeping cannot symbolise. (John Steinbeck, American writer, on the betrayal of internally displaced Americans, in The Grapes of Wrath)

Haki iwe ngao na mlinzi....kila siku tuwe na shukrani ("Justice be our shield and defender....every day filled with thanksgiving" Lines from Kenya's national anthem)

I soothe myself back to patchy sleep with my mantra in these terrible days, as our country burns and disintegrates around us:

Courage. Courage comes. Courage comes from cultivating. Courage comes from cultivating the habit. Courage comes from cultivating the habit of refusing. Courage comes from cultivating the habit of refusing to let fear dictate one's actions. (Aung San Suu Kyi, Burmese Nobel Peace Prize winner).

I wake with a sense of unbearable sadness. Please let it not be true.....

Meanwhile, the man you named President cowers in the State House, surrounded by a cabal of hardline power brokers, and a bevy of sycophantic unseated Ministers and MPs, who jostle for position and succession. Who fuel the fires by any means they can, to keep themselves important, powerful, necessary. The smoke continues to rise from the torched swathes of Rift Valley, the gutted city of Kisumu, the slums of Nairobi and Mombasa. The Red Cross warns of an imminent cholera epidemic in Nyanza and Western Kenya, deprived for days now of electricity and water. Containers pile up at the Port of Mombasa, as ships, unable to unload cargo, leave still loaded. Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Southern Sudan, the DRC, all dependent on Kenyan transit for fuel and vital supplies, grind to a halt.

A repressive regime rolls out its panoply of oppression against legitimate dissent. Who knew our police force had so many sleek, muscled, excellently-trained horses, to mow down protestors? Who guessed that in a city of perennial water shortages, we had high-powered water cannons to terrorize Kenyans off the streets?

I am among the most fortunate of the fortunate. Not only am I still whole, alive, healthy, mobile; not only do I have food, shelter, transport, the safety of those I love; I have the gift of work. I have the privilege to be in the company of the most brilliant, principled, brave, resilient Kenyans of my generation. To contribute whatever I can as we organize, strategize, mobilize, draw on everything we know and can do, to save our country. I marvel at the sheer collective volume of trained intelligence, of skill, expertise, experience, in our meetings. At the ability to rise above personal tragedy - families still hostage in war zones, friends killed, homes overflowing with displaced relatives - to focus on the larger picture and envisage a solution. I listen to lawyers, economists, youth activists, humanitarians; experts on conflict, human rights, governance, disaster relief; to Kenyans across every sector and ethnicity, and I think:


Is this what we have trained all our lives for? To confront this epic catastrophe, caused by a group of old men who have already sucked everything they possibly can out of Kenya, yet will cling until they die to their absolute power?

You know these people too, Mr. Kivuitu. The principled, brave, resilient, brilliant Kenyans. The idealists who took seriously the words we sang as schoolchildren, about building the nation. Some of them worked closely with you, right through the election. Some called you friend. You don't even have the excuse that Kibaki, or his henchmen, might offer - that of inhabiting a world so removed from ours that they cannot fathom the reality of ordinary Kenyans. You know of the decades of struggle, bloodshed, faith and suffering that went into creating this fragile beautiful thing we called the "democratic space in Kenya." So you can imagine the ways in which we engage with the unimaginable. We coin new similes:

lie low like a 16A (the electoral tally form returned by each constituency, many of which were altered or missing in the final count)

We joke about the Kivuitu effect - which turns internationalists, pan-Africanists, fervent advocates for the dissolution of borders, into nationalists who cry at the first verse of the national anthem .
Ee Mungu nguvu yetu
Ilete baraka kwetu
Haki iwe ngao na mlinzi
Natukae na undugu
Amani na uhuru
Raha tupate na ustawi.
O God of all creation
Bless this our land and nation
Justice be our shield and defender
May we dwell in unity
Peace and liberty
Plenty be found within our borders.
Rarely do we allow ourselves pauses, to absorb the enormity of our country shattered, in 7 days. We cry, I think, in private. At least I do. In public, we mourn through irony, persistent humour, and action. Through the exercise of patience, stamina, fortitude, generosity, that humble me to witness. Through the fierce relentless focus of our best energies towards challenges of stomach-churning magnitude. We tell the stories that aren't making it into the press: the retired general in Rift Valley sheltering 200 displaced families on his farm, the Muslim Medical Professionals offering free treatment to anyone injured in political protest. We challenge, over and over again, with increasing weariness, the international media coverage that presents this as "tribal warfare", "ethnic conflict", for an audience that visualises Africa through Hollywood: Hotel Rwanda, The Last King of Scotland, Blood Diamond.
I wish you'd thought of those people, when you made the choice to betray them. I wish you'd drawn on their courage, their integrity, their clarity, when your own failed you. I wish you'd had the imagination to enter into the lives, the dreams, of 37 million Kenyans.

But, as you've probably guessed by now, Mr. Kivuitu, this isn't really a letter to you at all. This is an attempt to put words to what cannot be expressed in words. To mourn what is too immense to mourn. A clumsy groping for something beyond the word 'heartbreak'. A futile attempt to communicate what can only be lived, moment by moment. This is a howl of anguish and rage. This is a love letter to a nation. This is a long low keening for my country.
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