But then there are also differences. The biggest of these to my mind is the idea of social welfare. Kalonzo Musyoka's ODM-K enunciates the idea of monthly coupons for the poor. This is readily copied by Raila Odinga's ODM; and it is perhaps for this reason that Musyoka goes even further, making the very bold decision to raise the tax entry bracket from KShs. 11,135 to Kshs. 30,000. 

Let us look at the effect of this increase in the tax entry bracket. Kalonzo's assumption must be that there is a large enough number of Kenyans earning more than Kshs. 30,000. The Kenya civil service with a bloated workforce of close to 200,000 people only has about 10,000 people earning more than the 30,000. A whooping 170,000 are below this and given the recent government salary increases where people in Job group C enter the tax threshold, then you will realise that you are actually saying that close to 150,000 who would otherwise have paid some tax will under these proposals be exempt. That this is philanthropic we can all agree about, but how does Kalonzo propose to plug the shortfall in government revenue? Whence the financial resources to implement much needed structural improvements?

And that is merely the civil servants. There is another 3 million Kenyans employed in formal jobs in the private sector.  The majority of them earn salaries far smaller than the proposed new threshold. This is a massive hole in revenues and Kalonzo proved reticent on exactly how he would achieve the difference while keeping Kenya above water. 

And this is merely at present spending levels. If these were to be raised further by the social welfare state the ODM parties are proposing in starting to  put Kenyans on the dole the shortfalls would be seen to much larger still. Neither of the politicians was clear on exactly who or how many would enjoy the benefits of this largesse named monthly food coupons or cash transfers  but it is perhaps safe to assume that it is the most destitute Kenyans, that 46% living below the poverty line.

With Kenya's population reaching 34 million, this works out to roughly 15 million people. Let's do some quick numbers. Say the monthly coupons/transfers are $1 a day translating to 65 shillings a day or 2000 shillings a month. That would be about Kshs. 30 billion a month, a figure that even at face value is unrealistic. So we must move lower still and in coming across the 20% of the Kenyan population that lives in abject poverty, we see a much better target for the government's generosity.  Even this will not come. It will cost the Exchequer fully Kshs. 163 billion in one year alone.  I have tried to be as miserly as possible in my assumptions, but I still do not see how we can fund this without greatly compromising other government expenditure necessary for human and economic development. My view is that this is a lie neither of the candidates can afford to or intend deliver without a huge dent in the economy. they are merely playing to the gallery.

Perhaps it would be more important for the politicians to seek out the reasons why these Kenyans are so poor. These people, these destitute Kenyans suffer this predicament for the simple reason that there are no opportunities for them to earn a living either through the informal sector or labour demanding government intervention. To pay them an assured wage even when they have produced nothing is the first step in the promotion of a culture of  bumming in the country.It would be much better that the money being doled out be invested in programs that would create lasting employment for these poor people.  

To this end, the Kibaki government has in its manifesto made provisions for enterprise funds for both women and the youth, perhaps two of the most vulnerable groups in the country. His recent directive that government contracts in the maintenance of rural roads be implemented through labour intensive means is one way of eliminating the ‘bum' mentality that Kalonzo and Raila want to promote. 

Raila spoke very eloquently on how he will grow SMEs  saying

In that statement, the ODM candidate lives true to his famed lack of interest in the informal ,i.e. the Jua Kali sector. This sector has brought about the employment of more Kenyans and the creation of more Kenyan entrepreneurs and innovators than any other sector throughout our history. Not that it is wrong to promote SMEs, it is just that these are not likely in themselves to promote economic growth or reduce poverty among Kenyans in a manner accelerated enough to cause a difference in the short term. In fact, what happens in Kenya is that the growth of SMEs has been fuelled by Kenyans graduating from the Jua Kali  sector and moving up as their businesses grow. 

The candidates have without exception talked about the need for Infrastructure development. The Kibaki government has its record in place and will likely persist with the existing plans in line with his Vision 2030. The vision has both long and short-term goals and it is my assumption that these were the inspiration for his manifesto's infrastructure section.  

Raila in his vision declared that his government would commit 10% of GDP on infrastructure over the  next 5 years.  This is no small change. Kenya's GDP (estimate for 2006) at official exchange rates is thought to be US$ 17.49 billion (about Kshs. 1.2 Trillion) and with an estimated 10% spend over the next 5 years, a Raila government is pledging Kshs. 120 billion to infrastructure.  On its part, for the year 2007/8, the Kibaki government has set aside a whooping Kshs. 168 billion on infrastructure with the President justifying it as follows.

Unfortunately, the ODM-K manifesto is rather economical with figures so it is difficult to know what Kalonzo Musyoka's infrastructure outlay is  estimated at. 

Raila's health proposals seem to come straight out of the PNU manifesto only that he has not extended his pledge to primary and secondary school-going children as the PNU did.  It is a known fact that the National Social Health Insurance scheme that was touted by Charity Ngilu did not attract the favour of President Kibaki who quickly rejected the bill when it was sent to him for approval. It is interesting to note that for all the support the ODM then gave the proposals, they do not form the pillar of the party's health program for Kenyans. Again, it is impossible to gauge the ODM-K plan for they do not extend beyond a host of abstract promises.

One of the advantages of incumbency is that it is easier to make promises to an electorate with facts and figures that back you up. But it does not excuse the two Orange parties' not going deeper and providing figures that both back up their promises and question those of the government.

Top priority

For instance, the Kibaki government has increased health spending  from 18 billion in 2003 to 35 billion in 2007/2008. The president believes he can maintain this growth in the health spend. It would be really nice to hear what spend the Orange parties have planned for Kenya. It is a fact that the growth in the health sector in the past five years has been fuelled in large part by the increased number of health centres and dispensaries built with CDF money.

And talking of CDF where are we? CDF is the main devolutionary activity of the last parliament. A total of 10 billion shillings was spent on CDF this last parliament representing 2.5% of the national budget. I would have expected that an ODM government would increase this immediately especially as they have been announcing to the public their intention to increase amounts spent on the provinces to 60%  of state revenue when their particular idea of devolution, Majimbo, comes through.

As it is acknowledged that devolution is a constitutional issue that may or may not be changed in the first six months, would it not have been in line with ODM's intentions to increase CDF remittances from 2.5% to 10% as they have previously pushed for? They have not and we can only guess that it is on grounds that such a progression has been deemed impractical at the present  time. 

I will ignore the pledge to open a "job seekers" office in major cities as this is not what people want. They want offices where people go to get employment not to seek it. In any case most of the labour offices in each district still provides this service to employers who seek employees through a labour office. My view is that if I had collated all the promises made by the ODM politicians in public rallies and then matched them against their Manifestos, then I would have found out that the promises were lies that are peddled to the public, lies which they found it so much harder to repeat in their written manifestoes.

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Whats a manifesto?
written by Mimimzalendo , November 16, 2007

You may need to revisit the definition and description of manifestos.

Coz clearly, you seem to look for any small thing to twist to your political preference, regardless of the fact that some things may not necessarily fit.

A manifesto is usually a printed and organized plan of action from a political enty wanting to caputure/re-capture state power via a democratic process called suffrage elections.

Roadside declarations, campaign speeches, tv pledges, etc are not manifestos.

Your title suggests that you were going to compare manifestos of the various parties and give us an analysis.

With such a title-heading, I did not expect you to ignore that noble task, and instead focus on comparing roadside speeches versus printed manifestos.

So either change the heading/title or stick to the comparative analyis.

I understand that as a political operative, you remitt is to twist and distort anything from ODM-K, ODM or Saba Saba Asili. But you too must be aware of the limits of distoritions.

And by the way, just because a certain party launched their manifesto first, does not mean they owned the idea. Sorry, but you need to be honest with yourself sometimes.

Coz your posts of late have become less intelectual (which was always appealing) and more propaganda.

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written by obamab , November 18, 2007

I have to agree on this one, I spent some time reading this thinking that it will be a non-bias analysis of the manifestos, but this has turned out to be a venom laced political article...

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written by emmo opoti , November 18, 2007

My view is that this is a lie neither of the candidates can afford to or intend deliver without a huge dent in the economy. they are merely playing to the gallery.

All three parties are making promises that are quite impossible to fulfil without causing massive shocks to the nation's finances. Can we afford all those new districts? The mwananchi it seems is looking for something to feel good about, the politician it seems, is eager to supply it. One blind man leading another.

To pay them an assured wage even when they have produced nothing is the first step in the promotion of a culture of bumming in the country.It would be much better that the money being doled out be invested in programs that would create lasting employment for these poor people.

I have always thought we would serve our long-term interest much better by really tightening the belt, we can do without many of these social programs in the short term, and invest instead in the capacity to bring about lasting economic growth. The ODM parties plans pay very little attention to creating self-dependency; this attitude no doubt a corollary of our national rent-seeking attitude.

In fact, what happens in Kenya is that the growth of SMEs has been fuelled by Kenyans graduating from the Jua Kali sector and moving up as their businesses grow.

Raila's attitude towards Jua Kali is perhaps the single most important factor indicative of his being unsuited for guardianship of a developing economy.

Raila in his vision declared that his government would commit 10% of GDP on infrastructure over the next 5 years. On its part, for the year 2007/8, the Kibaki government has set aside a whooping Kshs. 168 billion on infrastructure

Unless we rethink our investment ideas, including by inviting competent foreign assistance, there is no reason to believe that even this increased allocations to infrastructure are not another means to waste/ steal public money. Our problem has never been a lack of investment, but more poor implementation, poor planning and a lack of executive capacity.

Raila's health proposals seem to come straight out of the PNU manifesto only that he has not extended his pledge to primary and secondary school-going children as the PNU did.

Can we afford these schemes? Why is the PNU getting sucked into ODM's perception of the government as a big fat Santa?

As it is acknowledged that devolution is a constitutional issue that may or may not be changed in the first six months, would it not have been in line with ODM's intentions to increase CDF remittances from 2.5% to 10% as they have previously pushed for?

I'd say thank God for ODM's insincerity. CDF should properly be put on hold until we have developed the mechanisms to manage it, to concentrate more on capacity building and less on silly projects like building classrooms and buying desks.

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written by pndiangui , November 18, 2007

Emmo

Great great comments.
The most ignored issue by Kenyans and their populist politicians except some notable bureaucrats, like the PS of planning and that of Roads (and I hope they are working on a solution to this) , is that currently the issue is not financial resources but execution capabilities. That is why 3 billion was returned to treasury by the ministry of Water , 40 billion annually has been returned by the Roads ministry since Raila's helm and many more ministries. The country needs to invest more time thinking about how to execute on projects and the RIGHT projects. KRA has done its job , and is continuing to do so. The treasury is getting better in the conservation of the collected revenues.....the problem comes in when the cash is allocated to ministries to execute on the right projects that will have both 'visible' and intrinsic impact on the social-economic development. The RAPID RESULTS initiative is good but again it is like hitting a nail on its head when the underlying material to be pierced through is steel!. There are no local capabilities to execute in rapid time some of these complex projects.
Capacity building has never been put into sharp focus and the low capacity to deliver has been lost through time as corrupt brief case service providers took over the provisioning of these services. Few of these firms bothered with new technologies, management strctures or even has an intent of growing into a business.
Even worrisome is that this state expenditure might not end up bringing synergies of sustainable job creation through the development of local companies that suck-up the expenditure to provide the infrastructure development services prudently while continuing with their growth. When the Singapore government noticed such a bottleneck in the 70's , even with unemployment being high , it decided to go with the unpopular sourcing of foreign expatriates and their firms under prudent contractual agreements that would ensure technology and skills transfer to local firms and engineers. This is exactly what I would want to see thought-through at the cabinet level. An injection of 100 billion in the ministry of Roads fro example should not only see several highways developed but should also see several engineering and construction firms grow rapidly offering local graduates sustainable jobs that are affected by the whole value-chain of the service delivery should see the development of even new industries like Equipment leasing in a larger scale if the execution and its desired results were well thought-out. Not just throwing in more money. In the education sector for example I would want to see a strategy where state spending on schools and classrooms building has a goal of ensuring the development of low-cost housing technologies firms that put up low-cost schools and equipments in record times while providing sustainable jobs to graduating accountants, carpenters and R & D workshops for cheap local materials. These are the firms that should be nurtured , the 'Korea Hyundai & Samsung style' , to sort out the very same problems in the other regions of Africa , in essence the whole synergistic value chain from state spending to, skills and technology transfer and finally indigenous entrepreneurial firms spurning the African regions and even expanding globally.
The experience of sorting out Kenya's problems should offer such a low-cost schools developer the opportunity to franchise its model even in Bangladesh.
So I urge for a shift in focus for throwing money into ministries and constituents to a wholesome thinking of the intended results and the HOW TO deliver infrastructure rapidly while transferring vital skills and technologies to locals and at the same time 'working up' the state spending as capital to ensure the development of entrepreneurial firms.

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Great Stuff!
written by Kerich , November 19, 2007

Emmo and Pndiagui
Standing ovation from my part. I particularly laud pndiangui's ananlysis and concur indeed that the problem doen't lie with budgetary allocations to ministries rather lies in execution capabilty and accountability mechanisms to ensure fiscal responsibility on the part of contractors. I wish you were running for presidency pndiagui I'd majorly vote for you. I was highly disenchanted by Kibaki's performance at reforms in Cabinet perforance and indeed for me the writing was in the wall, I'd give him the boot for sleeping on the job and breaking the hopes and aspirations of the kenyan people for a paradigm shift in the axis of government.Indeed, I barely expect anything in the way of reform to emanate from his government upon re-election. Question was thus, for me to scan the opposition for a viable alternative. Events of the past 3 weeks have seroiusly dampened my prospects that Raila is a man of enouh intellect and Gravity to institute these changes. Indeed the populist rhetoric that is largely untennable and has been most disconceerting to we who claim to tout issue based politics on the platform of real reform. My despondent form is only relieved by the infant hope that It is simply because the Electorate are largely ignorant and they need to be given a reason strong enough to vote out the incumbent. I hold on capriciously to the hope that somewhere inside Raila's psyche there lies a real concern for the good of the nation and enough good will to engage experts in matters governance to ensure that our nation is pulled out of the muck it is in and poverty reduces to below 25% by ensuring that al development project allow for skills transfer and job creation in the synergistic model you discribed to give us a a real chance of achieving sustainable first world status which i truly believe possible.
Whatever happens, as said in the Desiderata, the universe id unfolding exactly as it should.
Let providence, the universe, God or whatever guiding force i can only hope to exist out there lead Kenya to a better future.

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the dilemma
written by Amir Ibrahim , November 19, 2007

Like Kerich, I am caught in a real dilemma about the Kibaki presidency. I will quote from an old article of Stephen Wanyama's when he was very much anti-Kibaki.

Clement weather, investor goodwill, a surge in remittances, divestments of state stakes and a healing from the trauma inflicted by the Economic Structural Adjustment Programmes flatter the present view of the economy, but as the effect of these boons wear away, it is vital that Kenya embark on a programme of radical reform in anticipation of the future.
An economy built on agriculture will not achieve the growth figures that will lift Kenyans out of poverty, and neither will temporary infusions of finances into the public coffers from taxes or the sale of public assets. Absent a total revolution of our economy, economic growth will slide up and down as the world economy favors, with an ever increasing class of poor Kenyans.
Understandably perhaps, the spectre of an ODM-K presidency sends many into a panic; but this must not preclude the appreciation of the fact that the Mwai Kibaki Presidency has been a sad failure. Promising much and delivering very little, it has not served in any way to sort out our deepest structural problems, nor provided the guidance and impetus to guide our economy and national outlook in any way fundamentally different from what prevailed since the late 1990s. I will not waste my vote, I will make sense of my ritual, I will not vote Kibaki.

I am guessing I do not need to tell anyone that this Wanyama has travelled very much since.
No one in their right mind I think supports Kibaki with anything like the ardour with which ODM's supporters cheer their candidate on. In fact the majority of Kibaki's votes are a vote rejecting Raila Odinga and the hysteria of his candidacy. While Raila may very well get away with it, there can be little doubt that a more civilised candidate would have kicked Kibaki out of office.

There is a lot wrong with Kenya, but we have no reason to make a move that will definitely make it worse.

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written by Kamale , November 19, 2007

Peter,

I agree that capacity had been one of the Kibaki government's problems in that there was sufficient money to undertake very many development projects both internally generated or donor generated. The local capacity was definitely insufficient especially with the weeding out of cowboy contractors. To cover for this shortfall in capacity, the government allowed in foreign contractors and perhaps 30% of ongoing projects are being undertaken by the chinese as the government competes with the private sector for contractors.

Kenya is simply paying the price for a government that seemed to have gained the goodwill of donors and perhaps its own people with their ardent spirit of paying taxes!

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Inconsistencies, inconsistenci
written by Nyabs , November 19, 2007

Kamale T, a well thought out article, showing the glaring inconsistencies in the manifestos. You forgot to mention the small matter of free secondary education that will add the burden to the treasury.

I am opposed to a welfare state, not because it gives me any joy to see the poor suffer, but simply because it is a poor solution and strategy to a real problem. The question that the ODMs need to ask and answer is: why are Kenyans poor and you have rightly pointed out the answer which should also be clear as daylight to them: because they lack opportunities to earn income. Kenyans work hard, extremly hard when they get the opportunities but those opportunities have not been forthcoming, especially in the Nyayo era years when the economy ground to a halt.

So, rather than talk of cash coupons to the poor, we should provide opportunities for employment and investment, where the poor can use the only assets they have ( their labour) to earn a living.

I do not want to get into the mechanics of how the coupon system will work, but for purposes of inadvertently assisting the ODM-K strategist rethink the issue, a few questions will suffice: how will the poor be defined and who will identify them, especially in a cultural context where even those that are rich will claim to be poor in order to benefit from state assistance (we all know some of the "poor" beneficiaries of constituency bursary funds), secondly, what will determine the period of time a person is on the dole? Will there be a trigger, like someone getting employment, that will get the person off the dole? How will this monitored?

Kamale has also pointed out the glaring inconsistencies on all these welfare promises. On one hand, there is a promise galore of free education and cash coupons, on the other hand, a reduction in taxation. It simply cannot work, unless the ODMs want Kenya to go back to foreign donors cap in hand begging for funding, something which the Kibaki government, with all its failings, has almost weaned us from and I, for one, do not want to go back there.

In summary, what we are hearing from the ODMs are populist statements which even they don't believe and that is why when pressed hard, the only source of funding Raila can think of is money stashed in foreign accounts abroad! Getting that money will be harder than maintaining current tax collection figures, so let promises be made on the basis of what can be realistically achieved, with resources that can be planned for.

The crowds may love the promises they are hearing and sadly, many believe in them, but one year latter when they are not fulfilled, they will be hungry and angry and whoever of the two ODMs that may win the election will be at the receiving end of this anger in 2012 just as Kibaki is at the receiving end right now.

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Well put!
written by kemi , November 19, 2007

I get amazed when people laud welfare. Welfare in kenya will forever condemn people to poverty while hijacking the country's progress. Kalonzo's coupon stance is foolish to say the least.

this is what our govt should do. Instead of poor people sitting and receiving free coupons, the govt should establish a program where this idle labor can be utilized to make many of our ills right. For instance, the poor can be mobilized to clean parks, create park trails, clean polluted rivers and etc. In turn, they will receive stipends. This will boost our tourism revenue as well as reduce crime. Moreso, it will increase demand from the generated income for this poor people. I believe even this secondary education should not be free. The students should be made to volunteer....plant trees, clean and maintain trails and etc in exchange for scholarship.

That's the kind of talk our leaders should be spewing, not welfare.

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Jukwaa Reply
written by osirisisgod , November 21, 2007

I posted this as a reply on the Jukwaa board, a dreamy land where everything is the fault of the GEMA, and where you can say anything against anyone in government or in ODM-K without requiring proof, but where Raila is a living god.

First RoughRider,
May I interest you in reality for all of five minutes. I am not GEMA, at all. I suffered education in a place called Kikuyu, but that is just about the most of it. I have spent the rest of my days in a hammock here by the lake just swinging in the breeze. Come by some time, it could help clear your mind.
Secondly, I want to put it to you and your fellow hecklers that your party is so clueless on the economy, it presents a danger to Kenyans. Like Kamale has said (and the PNU is not averse to this either) the majority of you are just rent-seekers- after jobs in the UN, in the diplomatic service and so on. That is why you want CDF raised to 10%, that is why you want ETR's done away with, that is why you hate the property market, that is why you hate the NSE, that is why you are asking people not to pay rent. It is also the reason why you expect that by throwing more money into the villages you can boost growth. You think that shiny new money in your village will put a tarmac road and water pumps there. In a nutshell you do not understand how a modern economy works. I want to tell you that this is costing the ODM votes every day, and is one of the reasons why people like me left your number.

Now let me just show you one thing, Mr GEMA this GEMA that. Kipipiri, farm bounty amid infrastructure decay.. That is Amos Kimunya's constituency. Funny thing this GEMA people, they suffer the same failures in the system that the rest of us Kenyans do. Strange eh?

Now regarding Transcentury and Equity bank. I suppose this is difficult for people like you to understand, but such deals are not arranged overnight. If you are hearing about it now, talks were probably entered into a while back. Secondly, international investors coming into a dodgy third world country will have done their homework, so if as you posit there is something illegitimate about these businesses, if their success is based on Kibaki being in office then these foreign firms would not be coming in as partners just now when opinion polls are showing that Kibaki could be leaving State House, could they?

Job,
Really, just get that chip off your shoulder. This will be the third time that you are making a lot of noise about handles and handles. Do you suppose anyone is afraid of speaking their mind? So much so that they would hide behind many handles? Or is the fact that there are people whose names start with O who refuse to bend their knee in front of the Messiah too much to handle?

Now the Kroll Report was not about bank money was it? It was about property. I am not Moi's lawyer or anything, but you must be plenty foolish to suppose that all that property could be quickly liquidated and then shock and horror piled into a war zone!! Switch on brain Job.

Adongo,
Thank you for at least giving a less redolent view from your team.

A short education people. The economy really does matter, and it is not all just wishes and wishes.
Things fall apart, the danger of ODMnomics.
Orange victory bitter for Kenyan economy
It is the economy, stupid!
and finally, the King beats the market, the market fights back.

Kamale,
Yes, I think we have a very bad culture of rent-seeking in Kenya. It spreads far beyond ODM. It is how most Kenyan politicians have made their money, and it is that is the greatest impediment to our economic growth.

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Osiris, such a coward
written by Roughrider , November 21, 2007

Dear Osirisisgod;

It strikes me as cowardly that you decided to drag our little banter across the virtual Atlantic to a website that you control and where you can more freely attack Raila Odinga and vet any serious intellectual confrontation. This is ok because as people who profess democracy we must allow freedom of speech.

What riles is your atrocious habit of making presumptuous claims that have no relationship with the truth. Why would anyone who begins by seeking a little indulgence in reality, proceed to make the most fantastic and unfair statements? This is the intellectual dishonesty you can only practice rampantly here on Kenya Imagine but would not stand a minutes logic elsewhere.

I doubt very much if you have looked at the ODM manifesto. You are repeating hook line and sinker the same non sense that you have picked from incompetent amateur propagandists who litter the internet nowadays. A responsible person would have taken time to read what exactly ODM is proposing.

Let us debunk your lies and misconceptions:

1. May I interest you in reality for all of five minutes. I am not GEMA, at all. I suffered education in a place called Kikuyu, but that is just about the most of it. I have spent the rest of my days in a hammock here by the lake just swinging in the breeze. Come by some time, it could help clear your mind. Secondly, I want to put it to you and your fellow hecklers that your party is so clueless on the economy, it presents a danger to Kenyans. Like Kamale has said (and the PNU is not averse to this either) the majority of you are just rent-seekers- after jobs in the UN, in the diplomatic service and so on.

I am less than 30 years old, a mere lad, some will say, just at the beginning of a career. Never been a diplomat, never worked permanently for the UN. Where did you manufacture these assumptions that you print here so carelessly? GEMA stands for the negative elitist ethnic forces that seek to use the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru holloi polloi for selfish political and economic ends; many ordinary Gikuyu, Embu and Meru people do not subscribe to the idea of GEMA hegemony. Many do not wear tribal spectacles when looking at issues of national concern. This classical argument should explain Kipipiri to you.

I am a professional economist. My day to day work is about applying concepts, methods and solutions from economics to the problems of everyday life. By this objective standard, I am therefore NOT clueless about economics. Another careless assumption here? But wait, there is more: I have been intimately involved in economic policy making for the NARC government. On the promise of a retraction and apology I am willing to demonstrate this privately. It will certainly help curb a runny mouth.

But your attack was not limited to my person,it went on to ODM. ODM is a big movement of millions, so your attack on ODM is general and at best a wild shot in the dark. Perhaps you will rise from amnesia and recall that the likes of Prof. Anyang Nyongo, Charity Ngilu and Raila Odinga were key architects of the ERSWEC that the NARC government begun implementing in 2003 and which many Kenyans now credit for the nascent recovery. While still down memory lane you might remember the famous Investment Conferences and the discussions with the Paris club. The same people who brought you those ideas are the ones who will manage the ODM economy; they are NOT clueless in economics.

I have seen a couple of links to articles and discussions that you claim make economic sense. I am busy at the moment but can come back and lay there illogic bare. Sometimes people need outsiders to wake them from their reveries.

Now regarding TransCentury and Equity bank. I suppose this is difficult for people like you to understand, but such deals are not arranged overnight. If you are hearing about it now, talks were probably entered into a while back. Secondly, international investors coming into a dodgy third world country will have done their homework, so if as you posit there is something illegitimate about these businesses, if their success is based on Kibaki being in office then these foreign firms would not be coming in as partners just now when opinion polls are showing that Kibaki could be leaving State House, could they?

The approaches followed by TransCentury and Equity are different; they cannot be argued in the same breath. Do you actually live in Kenya? Do you have any idea how fast deals are made nowadays? If you do, you will recall that a short few months ago it was TransCentury and Not Equity that were about to take over a bit of Housing Finance. Instead after very quick moves it was BAAM and Equity that got HFC.

There is a leading investment concern that has 6 BIG deals on the desk that they can move on within days depending on various factors, politics included. We are in 2007 not 1960 buddy; in the computer age we do business at the speed of thought. I hope I do not have to be the teacher that explains to people like you the relationship between politics and economics, especially the economics of corruption.

Finally, I think I need to remind you that how well an economy performs is not merely a function of growth but also equity. The NARC dream went beyond mere tweaking of the economy to empowerment of the people. Empowerment requires certain major structural changes to put control and use of resources in the hands of more people. This is the part that those who remained in government found anathema

When Charity Ngilu tried to bring a social health insurance fund, a promise that NARC had in its manifesto, she was stymied and shoved aside. Similarly the constitutional reform process was hijacked.

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written by Kamale , November 22, 2007

RR,

I am honestly surprised that you actually call yourself an economist and still see nothing wrong with the Ngilu idea of the Social Health Insurance scheme and its impact on the economy.

Sometimes I think that we tend to look at issues differently because you have this consumption mentality and I have a production mentality (anything to do with where we come from in Kenya?)and this might explain why you have a socialist view of things.

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re: Mentalities, the shackles
written by aeichener , November 22, 2007

RR,

Sometimes I think that we tend to look at issues differently because you have this consumption mentality and I have a production mentality

An interesting wording.

But what I would have chosen would be a juxtaposition of
rent-seeker mentality vs. entrepreneurial mentality.

I believe that this identifies Kenyan reality a lot better.

Alexander

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written by roughrider , November 22, 2007

Aiechener is of course, as usual, talking crap. If he studied some basic econ, he would know that the concept of

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written by editor , November 22, 2007

RoughRider,
We are suffering a glitch in the comments system that truncates some comments at every point where there is dash,an apostrophe or a set of quotation marks. Kindly bear with us and amend your post accordingly.

Our apologies for the inconvenience.

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written by pndiangui , November 22, 2007

Let me go straight for the top man in Orange.
I see a Raila's popularity hidden behind 'reforms' allowing the MP for Langata to raise funds to run an NGO called ODM which can afford to hire economists to write manifestos and speeches for one who doesnt even understand the very basic conceptualisation upto the detail of the why and even to add more insults to injury, doesnt believe in them. Comments on non-payment of Rents ,a drug-driven NSE , undying support of the BOMAS draft with a 4-tier government etc etc portrays this naivety.
I understand many people have found it hard to attack devolution based on Bomas draft hence the tarnishing of the concept using the unpopular Majimbo, but I speak with my head high against a 4-tier government; It is bad for any country in the world. It is even worse when the Majimboism being touted is based on tribal arthmetics and hatred of some kind. But if we are talking a two tier integrated government then this a better view. I am afraid even Kibaki's wacko draft wasnt not a reflection of this either.
We can try to white-brush a black board but unfortunately the black marks might be too strong that they keep showing up.

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written by Roughrider , November 22, 2007

Aiechener is of course, as usual, talking crap. If he studied some basic econ, he would know that the concept of rents goes way back and has a chequered history in economic discourse. In addition, rent seeking is not necessarily bad; governments utilize this for certain non efficiency objectives every now and then. Entrepreneurship is not a direct opposite of rent seeking; I would argue that some rent seeking behaviour is actually entrepreneurial.

But I digress and waste my time; when Aiechener provides an iota of evidence that anybody in ODM is engaged in negative rent seeking behaviour, then we might have something to talk about. Now he is simply heckling and trash talking.

The statements made by Kamale are more interesting. First, they are not his words; he merely repeated the exact statement that Bwanamaka Mauri made on KTN last night, a form of plagiarism if you ask me. However, historically, this talk is more commonly associated with socialists and communists, not people of capitalist thinking.

And it is mistaken.

Production and consumption are two sides of the same coin. Many times economists advise on strategies that might stimulate greater consumption in order to expand economic opportunities for producers. When I see amateurs ridicule consumption, I am amazed at their ignorance. There was a French economist, JB Say, I think (please check accuracy, no time here) who said something like supply creates demand (basically supply side economics); but he has been challenged by others (Keynesian, post-Keynesians etc).
I hold that effective demand is a more important variable to work with in an economy.

Moving on, welfare economics is big chunk of economics. My guess is that it begun broadly with utilitarianism (Bentham, JS mill, Pareto, Edgeworth etc, I am a bit rusty but very sure) so what does it mean for Kamale to come and say that economists cannot propose a National Social Health Insurance Scheme as part of a welfare strategy to improve allocative efficiency?

I would be more interested if he claimed the proposed NSHIF cannot work, because all the viability studies by various health economists show that it can. But to imply that it is not a bona fide subject for economists? That is strange.

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written by emmo opoti , November 22, 2007

May I call you Kijana? OK, first off we have established that manifestos are mere pieces of paper published so as to win voters over. So no sorry, I am satisfied to merely skim over them. To me what is far more significant and indicative of ODM's spirit are the musings of its leaders in their off-the-cuff speeches and at public functions. Now if RoughRider is the economist, perhaps he will make a brilliant manifesto, but the Rough one is unlikely to sit in at Cabinet meetings where the word of Agwambo will hold sway, right? It is that word that I will pay attention to, not manifestos. Reading the article above shows anyhow that this is not just Raila's street talk, it is often also what he puts down on paper.

Now, I spoke of the UN in allusion to a joke someone had made about intelligent people following Raila so they could get appointed Permanent Representative to the UN. I cannot see any other reason why a self-confessed economist would back a candidate who asks people not to pay rent, can you?

You need to cut back on the number of times you post about these shadowy GEMA folks who are out to wreck everything, differentiate yourself from the average ODM rabble. Tribal slurring does have consequences. The Holocaust did begin with people claiming the Jews owned it all, controlled it all and hence were the cause of all the misery.

About Kipipiri. I posted that link to show you that the Agikuyu are Kenyans like all the rest of us, suffering the same failures that the rest of us do. The ODM fantasy that depicts Central Province as a beneficiary of government largesse at the expense of other provinces is not based on fact, it is merely supposed to rile the poor and ignorant against the GEMA(did you read Muluka's most ridiculous list of provincial revenue estimates?). I have always hoped that middle class people, who have endured a modicum of education would by now be inured against such moves.

Alright, so you worked for the NARC government on the ERSWEC, seems to me the wealth creation part is totally lost on ODM types. Would you not agree? There is an obsession with sharing, and nary a statement about wealth creation. You are talking in your post about the 1960s, well ODMnomics seems to me very 1960s, you know free this, free that and so on.

Now, on TransCentury and Equity. This is the traditional ODM alarmist cry and the strident voice against those GEMA, you know the ones pulling all the strings.

Transcentury, an investment club composed of friends of Kibaki from Mount Kenya, who have decided to sell out stock to hedge funds and institutional investors, each batch is worth 35 million. They are spreading risk. They figure, this way they can shield themselves when Kibaki is not there to guarantee strategic CEO jobs, facilitate insider trading and other comforts of corrupt government.
Last week Equity sold a big chunk of stock to a group of international NGOs; brilliant risk management strategy for Equity, which is plagued by internal management contradictions. So TranCentury has only followed suit. Incidentally, this stock will be sold back to them in a few years.

Elsewhere, Mungiki are arming themselves with pangas and landlords are ejecting perceived ODM sympathisers from houses in Nairobi. Meanwhile Kibaki is yet to say if he will accept defeat peacefully.

Now this is your calumny in all its putrid glory. First of all you point out to us, in case we had forgotten that TransCentury are from Mt. Kenya, you the n follow this up with the statement that these groups are reducing their risk by selling to hedge funds and institutional investors. An every day move everywhere in the world, and one which any economist should understand. But then comes your explanation. They are doing this to shield themselves from the consequences of the ouster of Kibaki. Undoubtedly, and as has been pointed out ad nauseam the market is jittery about an ODM government so TransCentury will not be the only ones doing this. Do you have any KenGen or KenyaRe stock? Are you keeping it? Will you be compensated when Raila nationalises them? So what is different about TransCentury and the rest of us? Is it the fact that they enjoyed special illegal access? Well then, why would anyone want to be so foolish as to take this stock then?

The whole of your post, as underlined by the last sentence reeks of tribal hatred. The market may very well go down in the new year, especially should you implement your ODMnomics. It is not just GEMA who are managing their risk, it is not just people who are close to the President, everyone is checking their positions to minimise their exposure to the onset of the madness.

P.S. Mbaru at the NSE predates the Kibaki ascension and is a consequence of his ownership of a brokerage, not his chumminess with the President.

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written by roughrider , November 22, 2007

Kijana is fine. I assume emmo opoti is a pseudonym

It makes more sense to debate with people who have some regard for truth. It is a matter of honour. Where and when did Raila ask people not to pay rent? This is something that you picked from the PNU presidential campaign launch at Nyayo stadium a few weeks back! The truth is that Raila has tried to mediate between landlords and tenants in slums, imploring landlords to be more considerate. I have been at one such meeting myself. In slum areas, mostly on lands owned by the government, and NOT serviced in any way, it is difficult to justify exorbitant and frequent rent increments.

(In fact, I think this whole debate on rents in slums is a wee bit misplaced. ODM is proposing ways to deal with the problem of informal settlements. We should not be proud of a petty class of shack owners charging even poorer tenants for almost nothing. Penury begets penury. Government supported groups like Mungiki have even come between the hapless landlords and poorer tenants imposing additional fees for spurious services!)

I have heard Kimunya rail against oil firms for increasing prices unfairly, threatening punitive or retaliatory action. Raila in asking landlords to be considerate has never asked tenants not to pay or threatened retaliation, which as an ordinary citizen he is incapable of. I hope you will have enough integrity to stop printing lies. In fact Raila has countless times, faced by lying critics like you, clarified this matter.

Attacking RR, ODM or Raila does not provide any solutions; rather we ought to propose more efficient distributive mechanisms, where fairness is not only done, but also seen to be done. I realise that this is the campaign period, steeped in negativity and tribalism. This is why it is easy for some to ignore Raila s recent visit to the NSE and the clear statements made there. It is also why we cannot remember that the BOMAS draft is the product of thousands of submissions representing the views of millions of Kenyans across the political divide; not merely of ODM.

It is because of tribalism and politics that we can easily forget the rampant corruption presided over by Kibaki and his cronies. His vicious and repeated attacks on press freedom. The assault on human rights, particularly Muslims. The land and ethnic clashes. The insecurity of Mungiki. The jobless masses among other things.

The Kikuyu and Inequality

The Kikuyu are a great people. Hardworking as they come. A good number belong to the ODM. It is a small elite minority in government who have caused problems. There have been questions about the tribalisation of civil service, armed forces, judiciary and other key sectors of government; such questions need to be addressed conclusively, not waved away with empty threats of Rwanda! Rwanda!

I like the Kipipiri example, it explains the position that ordinary Kikuyu may not significantly benefit from a corrupt, tribal elite. The same argument applied to ordinary Kalenjins during the great Moi error. It is an important argument against raw tribalism. Water projects in Nyeri have a significantly lower marginal value as the same projects in Marsabit. Yet, water budgets are a common example of allocation based on tribal considerations. Kikuyus must protest bitterly when a government led a Kikuyu gives Nyeri at the foot of Mt Kenya a water budget 100 times bigger than that given to any one district in drought prone North Eastern. The water project will not be as valuable as a good road and the opportunity cost much higher. The disproportionate development theory spawns lots of deep seated resentment as exemplified by the writings of Barrack Muluka. Addressing the causes of this wellspring of dissatisfaction rather than resorting haughty dismissals and insults is a way to start healing.

Last Word

The performance of an economy is not merely a function of baking bigger cakes, but also distributing it fairly. A good distributive mechanism is a powerful incentive for greater wealth creation. In many ways, the tail wags the dog. Those who separate wealth creation from distribution; or alternately production from consumption have not understood properly the intricacies of managing a macroeconomy.

I have enjoyed my little sojourn here. Perhaps I will be back later on issues less divisive. (Especially as I have noticed some atrocious material going unchallenged and even, god forbid, being cheered by a hapless crowd)

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written by Nyabs , November 24, 2007

Interesting argument RR. Unfortunately, tribalism is a very systemic infection that is deeply embeded in the Kenyan pysche. But a hard, objective look at the Kibaki government clearly demonstrates that he has done better in this score than his predecessors.

It is easy to hurl accusations of tribalism at him, but how do we explain away the fact that ministers that he gave free reign to run ministries turned them into small tribal kingdoms, with very disproportionate representation of the tribesmen and women of the minister in charge?

What I am trying to say in many words is that our DNA code as Kenyans is to be tribal and to favour our tribesmen and women when we have the opportunity and I am very sure that Raila and the ODM team will be no different if they take over the reigns of government, because the structures that facilitate corruption and tribalism will still be intact. How he deals with these structures if he becomes president will determine whether he will set the country on a different course or whether it will be business as usual.

The country is crying out for structural and systemic change, where it is systems and strucutures that will run affairs of the state and not the whims and desires of the holders of state power. Unfortunately, you don't see any serious statements of intents on changing the underlying structure of government in any of the manifestoes ( and please don't quote Ugatuzi and majimbo as these are being touted as devolution models that will spread state largesse to all and sundry and not structural and sytemic change of government).

In brief ( or grosso modo as the French say), without serious structural and systemic changes in government, even if Raila or Kalonzo become president, we will have the same problems of tribalism and corruption.

Structural and sytemic changes that will make the practice of tribalism and corruption unattractive will be the only salvation of the Kenyan nation. None of the presidential contenders, including the incumbent, is talking about this.

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Resident evil or system malfun
written by aeichener , November 24, 2007

"Systemic" is quite correct as a diagnosis, but when did the illness start, and whence did it come? Usually, when it comes to shortcomings and short circuits in the Kenyan System, one is quick to blame colonialism. That is never totally wrong (there are always 5-10 % truth in it), and never right either.

Kenya has always had a history of ethnic intermix and intermarriage. Many can trace this in their own family lineage easily. But through a strange phenomenon of collective mental illnss, as soon as the scopus changes from individual to collective, the Gorgon rises her ugly head.

Now as to structural and systemic change, let me just say one abbreviation: GJLOS. 'Nuff said.

This program clearly grasps what is needed for change; and its regular critical assessment reports (on their website) also show where the weaknesses lie.

Alexander

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written by Nyabs , November 25, 2007

Thanks aeichener. Very paradoxical. I believe the causal virus/bacteria of this disease is the way we have structured our nation into tribal administrative units and have reinforced this further by ensuring that a child can be born in a district predominantly of one ethnic group and finish his/her university education in the same district and by the time the young man/woman graduates, s/he is already socialized that his/her tribe is the best or is under threat from other tribes. We simply have to overhaul our education systems to allow students to study and sample the whole of Kenya during their formative years and make friends across ethnic groups.

Secondly, the unhealthy competition of resources at the national level, without structures and systems that allow for equitable and transparent resource allocation. The tribe has therefore become the system, hence the privileges and resources that go to those perceived to be close to the man or woman in power and to where s/he comes from.

Thirdly, we have allowed and cheered our politicians to go to the lowest common denominator when their political careers are under threa-the tribe. Rather than blindly responding to the calls to arms against the other tribes that the tribal leader is telling us are our worst enemies, we should ask the leader some critical questions, one being since when did his/her career progression become a tribal matter. Unfortunately we don't and the best manifestation of this is during the election periods, like now, when we willingly swallow all the all the unresearched, untrue, half-cooked diatribe of our tribal chiefs against other Kenyans.

And lastly, the notion that when one of our own is resident in the big house on the hill, then we, as members of his/her tribe are ok and we will, somehow benefit and become richer and better. We all know that this does not happen and will never, but I still get surprised that people even sacrifice their lives to make sure than one of their own seats on the big seat. The saddest part of this is that the big man does not even know that the person who sacrificed his life for him exists.

We will all become richer and better when the people we elect to office are held accountable for implementing strategies that enable us to generate wealth from our labour and not because we share a common dialect with them.

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Exposing inaccuracies
written by New Day , November 29, 2007

Quoting paragraph 17: 'And talking of CDF where are we? CDF is the main devolutionary activity of the last parliament. A total of 10 billion shillings was spent on CDF this last parliament representing 2.5% of the national budget. I would have expected that an ODM government would increase this immediately especially as they have been announcing to the public their intention to increase amounts spent on the provinces to 60% of state revenue when their particular idea of devolution, Majimbo, comes through'.

Indeed, statistics will always baffle and amaze. However, it is still debatable that CDF allocations for 2007 have produced tangible development results at the grass-roots. I have seen a school in mvita constituency in Mombasa with very huge advertising at the entrance 'Kajembe CDF primary School', yet I enter the school compound and the lack of facilities,even the most basic coupled with poor management all around. All that someone who was tasked with CDF implementation did was rent the block and buy a can of bright paint. The question is not even increasing CDF but smart utilization with objectives, expected results and planned activities clearly documented to enhance accountability.

Political squabbles: something caught my eye from Kamale's contribution: 'Sometimes I think that we tend to look at issues differently because you have this consumption mentality and I have a production mentality (anything to do with where we come from in Kenya?)and this might explain why you have a socialist view of things'. Let me stress that production and consumption go hand in hand as demand and supply. What do you mean that you have a production mentality? And what is wrong with consumption? Are you not insulting the very person who buys your products, your client? I have heard this argument from a source which claimed that Nyanza people love freebies and detest hard work. On the other hand mt. kenya folks are touted as hard working and enterpreneurial. This is the same hogwash that racists use to say that Africans have lower IQ and dwell unreservedly on sexual savagery. Having lived on many parts of kenya, i know for sure that all Kenyans irrespective of ethnic background work towards higher production to meet their consumption needs. If you take a look at Zimbabwe whose inflation rate has gone up to 7,000 percent and is the highest in the world, try to understand that economies are globally linked to consumption and production dynamics and that this fear that with ODM in power the economy will crumble is not accurate as we have international players too who provide funding and services as well as marketing opportunities as long as we can get along. Zimbabwe has sour links with european economic giants who control wealth and information, as a result the country suffers from reluctance by service providers to enter into business to benefit the population, and sanctions. Resulting into poverty, crime and hopelessness. New Day.

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written by aeichener , November 29, 2007

Yes, New Day. Sure, sure, It's all Massah's fault. Evil Massah does not allow poor Zimbabwe to get on its feet. Sambo need new Massah, and all be well.

Disgusting. What mentality.

Alexander

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work hard, play hard
written by emmo opoti , November 29, 2007

New Day,
Hmmm, I am not sure I understand your point. Everyone who produces inevitably consumes, but Kamale's point seems to be that in some people one side overtakes the other and becomes dominant.
There are for a fact Kenyan communities that sit back and await delivery, and there are other ones that make lemonade from lemons. These are only facts, the faster we can acknowledge them the faster we can begin to pursue remedies. I do not think such conditions are innate or permanent. Interesting that you should bring in the matter of IQs here. I have never doubted that poor third world people have low IQs, this is really self-evident. It is when we begin to see these low IQs as being a genetic trait that we are going into matters unscientific and unprovable.

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