I was working late in the library yesterday when I got an email from an
aquaintance I hadn't seen in almost 7 months. He was concerned about my welfare,
wondering if my family was OK following the coup in Kenya.
I was stunned; had there
been a coup in Kenya
in the one week that I had decided to focus on my school work? Thankfully, his
concern was misguided – French newspapers had mistakenly reported that the political
instability was some kind of political coup. He felt that I was in denial: what
else short of a coup would drag so many notables into this previously quiet, at
least in the international scene, country? Surely the level of political
upheaval in the country matches the scale of the intervention?
Without getting too embroiled in definitions and counter-definitions, one
must concede that the situation in Kenya at the moment is dire. On the
one hand you have political leaders who, when apart, seem unable to stand the
sight of each other (in person is an entirely different story, as we saw last
week). On the other hand you have people on the ground who are suddenly
discovering an obscene level of hatred for each other. Each tribe or group
insisits that the leaders in the political class of the other team are manipulating
the man on the ground; each tribe is adamant that they will not go down without
a fight; each leader is retiring to their walled mansion after a hard day's
fight.
Hence the mediation; hence the attempt to bring all parties to the table to
talk. As a mediator in halls of residence, frequently called upon to intervene
in flat issues, I would like to say that my confidence in the process of
mediation in Kenya
is low. Not because I don't see the merits of sitting down and talking things
through, but because the mediation in its current form encompasses the wrong parties.
It’s the equivalent of my going to speak to the manager of the building when
two students fight because the electricity bill is too high. Mediation should
be between those who are affected by the conflict, and, regardless of what they
say in public, neither Raila nor Kibaki will be too adversely affected by a win
or loss in this case - unless there are masses of secret debts and dealings that
we know nothing about.
Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki lost control of this situation weeks ago. When
either one of them could have done something to rein in the passions of their
followers, they chose instead to harden their stances: Kibaki in refusing
mediation and refusing to make any notable public speeches; Raila in refusing
to meet the police half way and call off the protests. What we are seeing now,
as highlighted in other articles, is a pressure valve taken off decades of
tension; tensions that have been alternately fanned and cooled at the slightest
whim of generations of politicians. Tensions that will not be resolved, no
matter how many MOUs or other documents the two parties sign.
In an earlier article, I cited my fears on conflating the ethnic and the
political in Kenya.
I feel that my fears have been vindicated. Case in point: Odinga and Kibaki
meet and shake hands and agree to mediation - riots break out in Western parts
of Kenya,
notably in Naivasha and Nakuru which are
relatively cosmopolitan towns. If the tension had been understood as solely a
political issue then it would have been left to the political class to resolve
the situation. But because it has been couched in ethnic terms, today we
see people turning on each other in fear of being next. It calls to mind
the security dilemma in International Relations, where states seek to build up
their military capacity in fear of an attack by other states, and those other
states perceive this as a threat and build up their own capacity, and so the
cycle continues. Kenyans are either "retaliating on behalf of their
brothers" or "attacking before they go next".
Which is the second reason why I fear mediation will not work. In many of
the cases I deal with, there is usually a right and a wrong, and the main task
at hand is to make the wrongdoer see that he or she is so, without causing too
much embarrassment to him/her, thereby leading him/her to rectify their ways
without too much hassle. Who has the wrong tribe in Kenya? Who has the right? How can
we mediate in something as non-normative as tribe? Even on these pages we've
tried and tried to pinpoint the exact genesis of these underlying tensions that
we've all grown up with and failed. Because for every step that we take back in
time, someone else can take us one further. Worse than that, how do you
convince someone who has nothing left to lose but his pride to put it aside and
work with the very person that threatens that pride?
This is another criticism I level against mediation in Kenya. We have been in denial about
this for a long time, but Kenya is really three countries held together by that fickle notion of "ushago". Political Kenya is
extremely wealthy, rather old and outdated, and lives with delusions of
grandeur. Wealthy Kenya
is cosmopolitan, relatively young, generally unaffected by politics until now,
and has aspirations like going to university, buying a car, and a television
set etc. Poor Kenya
survives on less than a dollar a day, can barely speak Kiswahili - let alone
English, dreams of getting married, having children, and doing it all over
again, and is affected by every whim of the political class. Every year around
Easter or Christmas, all three come together in that undefined place,
"ushago", or "shags" to Wealthy Kenya.
Political Kenya
is inhabited by different shades of the same colour: greed and unbridled
ambition. Wealthy Kenya
hasn't really cared much until now; Poor Kenya picks up the pieces of Political
Kenya's greed and Wealthy Kenya's nonchalance. Until now. Poor Kenya is crying
out to be heard. Wealthy Kenya
is alarmed by the sound of the cry, Political Kenya is flustered and confused
because they have been caught out. Mediation must be about getting Poor Kenya's
voice heard with absolute clarity but without jeopardising the security of the
rest of the country. Wealthy Kenya
must continue to campaign for this and put pressure on Political Kenya. And Political
Kenya needs to resign and go home. Every last one of them. Their politics are
outdated, and their unabashed greed is disgusting.
Back to mediation. Far be it from me to criticise a genuine attempt at
resolving a crisis without suggesting an alternative, so here is my suggestion.
Mediation committees must be set up in as local a set up as is possible,
consisting of religious leaders, civil society groups and other parties – including
young volunteers, seeing as schools and universities are still closed. These
groups can mediate at church level between groups, not to tell them who’s right
or wrong, but to show people the futility of conflict and the possibilities
that cooperation offers. If the government can afford to pay MPs their full salaries for a
day’s work, surely they can afford to feed volunteers on bread and soft drinks
for a few days (and before you ask, having volunteered with the Red Cross
in Nairobi, I know for a fact that there are thousands of young people in Kenya
who would be more than pleased to do this for nothing more than the experience).
And as for Political Kenya?
Let them have their 5 years and in 2012, we'll see them at the ballot box.
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May I suggest that you take some half hour's breaks in between, over the next days, to read some Clausewitz, in the original preferably. Not just for the beauty of his style (he writes such as El Escorial is built); but as a political scientist, you will also profit from his wisdom. Especially now.
Alexander