Still, even as we criticise the careless band-wagoneering of Kenya's Jeremiahs, let's start by acknowledging two facts. Kenya's politicians, and others of the rent-seeking class - this includes those running NGOs, State Corporations, councillors, members of parliament and of course those who make up the bloated cabinet - earn truly obscene salaries.

Secondly, Kenyan wage earners, especially those in the formal sector in urban areas are greatly under-compensated for their efforts. Further, in view of the nearly 20% inflation now prevalent, their incomes are losing value faster than usual and subjecting even those lucky to be employed to life conditions that are truly below the poverty line.

However, it does not follow that raising the minimum wage would be particularly helpful for Kenya or her workers. It is a fact that the minimum wage standards currently in effect are not being enforced - up to 50 % of formally employed workers earn less than the already-declared minimum wage .  See page 20 of the pdf, which is page 5 of the document. This indicates that the set minimum wage is above what market forces point at.

But more than this, we are still recovering from the post-election violence. Some have tried to make out that the violence was not ethnic but a righteous revolt against the injustice of poverty. There is little evidence for that; what there is evidence for, is that Kenyan business suffered. The hotel industry, for example, came close to a total shut-down; agriculture was badly affected and the transport sector too. Overall, these blows have led to a drastic downward revision of growth forecasts for this year and not just for the national economy but for many firms up and down the country.

The election and the succeeding crisis have also landed us with a reality that weighs heavily on the Treasury. The massive Cabinet, the need for resettlement of displaced citizens, for compensation and for reconstruction will further burden a government whose coffers will already hold far less in revenues than was projected. This is not just for Central government either, local government authorities, particularly those in Western Kenya and the Rift Valley, will find themselves unable to run their affairs with anything close to the resources they were able to call upon last year.

Even worse, the  prognosis for the global economy is not encouraging. Increased fuel prices and increased raw material costs will continue to make industry expensive and reduce the ability of employers to take on more staff or increased wage costs.

With special regard to energy costs, and as has been written before on KenyaImagine , KenGen's reliance on the kindness of the climate puts us at a persistent disadvantage in the actuality of Climate Change.

Our plan B, building even more diesel generators and especially private-owned ones puts us at a further disadvantage. Far more expensive and increasingly so (oil broke another record today), than hydro-electric power, this guarantees that Kenya's suitability for industrial investment will for a long time continue to be less competitive than what is on offer in the region. There are already, a number of firms that have either exited Kenya completely, reduced their investments here or that have one foot out of the door. Such investors will also be adding the increased risk of investing in Kenya to their costs of business.

As to the matter of longer term fiscal prudence. True, the state has already taken on an unmanageable burden with the size of the Cabinet. But that does not then mean that it should take all manner of costs undeterred. Far too great a portion of Kenya's revenues are wasted (yes, wasted) on recurrent expenditure and in particular financing countless bureaucratic positions while very little is allocated to crucial development enabling capital expenditure.  

To raise the minimum wage, and indeed even to persist with the lavish spending currently perceived as normal for higher ranking state employees and politicians in such circumstances as we find ourselves, would not just be irresponsible for its opportunity cost, it would do nothing for inflation and would actually have the same deleterious effect as printing money.  

The option wished for, a higher minimum wage is therefore unlikely to be beneficial at all to those who it would be targeted at. Departing employers, rising inflation and widespread job losses help no one but those employed in the lamentations sector. It must also be said that raising the minimum wage would probably interfere with the current policy of making credit available as cheaply as possible to workers.
 
These arguments are unlikely to carry much weight with the ODM or the media or civil society. All these groups did after all support and continue to support both the expensive horror of the Bomas Draft and the endless and truly expensive commissions of inquiry. We can however hope that the Treasury's austerity measures and the need for them will lead to cutbacks across the board and importantly too, to a conversation with the public on the difficulties ahead and the need to tighten the public belt.

In closing, it is always easy to suggest that the state at least, if not the private sector can afford these increments being the big daddy with the massive purse but three things must be said against this shameless demagoguery. Firstly, the Treasury has already conceded that it has collected far less money than it did last year. Also, borrowing leads to an impoverishment of the middle class and the already indigent. These groups do not buy government debt (and the state will borrow intensively this year), they pay it in a silent transfer of wealth from the majority (including such sums as are levied through VAT) to the already very wealthy. Finally, borrowing from overseas makes us pawns of those who do not have our best interests at heart, and is truly expensive - it is, in a sense, analogous to exporting money.

Wage policy, and voluntary measures to encourage above-inflation wage growth would work better for Kenyan industry and workers. Urban inflation would be much better treated through carrying on the silent already underway revolution in Kenyan agriculture.