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Written by Dave Nyambati
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Thursday, 07 June 2007 |
It is with great interest that I have been watching the movement and actions of the former vice-president Musalia Mudavadi. This is the same man who many, after his embarrassing loss in the 2002 elections, declared was finished as a politician.
The economist and former minister was introduced into politics after the death of his powerful father, Moses Mudavadi, who died in 1989. Moses, known as ‘the king of Kakamega’ because of the tremendous political power he wielded among his ethnic Luhya tribe, was one of the men responsible for prompting President Moi into politics. Moses, who became an MP in 1976, remained a close ally and loyal friend of Moi till the day he died. Moi appointed him to a ministerial position when he became president, and left his power unchecked attracting much envy from his colleagues in parliament.
After the death of his close friend, and in a blatant show of nepotism, Moi hand picked Musalia to ascend to his father’s vacant parliamentary seat and immediately appointed him to a ministerial position. Musalia, once regarded as heir-apparent to the Nyayo throne, fell from grace after Kanu’s staggering loss at the 2002 general elections.
Musalia had grossly miscalculated the mood of his constituency, his ethnic Luhya community and the country by choosing to remain aligned with Moi. In fairness, he owed his political career and his family’s prominence to the ex-president who had ‘taken care’ of him after his father’s demise. His father had stuck by Moi when Kihika Kimani and his GEMA compatriots tried to deny Moi the presidency, and this was Musalia’s turn to prove his fealty. This must not have been an easy decision for him, but his options were limited. Moi also effectively kept him in tow by making him appear to be his apparent choice of successor and later vice president (he was VP for two months, the shortest in Kenya’s history), falsely assuming that the populous Luhya community would back Musalia, while the Kikuyu would back Uhuru. He was counting on post-humous influence and reputations of Uhuru and Musalia’s fathers to propel Kanu to victory.
Musalia, who during the previous campaign had denounced demagoguery by saying that one “cannot talk of national politics while at the same time holding up an ethnic banner”, may have used his Sabatia defeat to his benefit by focusing on forging an image as a statesman – instead of whipping up ethnic sentiment in his Luhya community.
Musalia meticulously worked his way back into the political elite capping off by choosing the winning ‘no’ team and placing his community as anti, while Ford Kenya’s Musikari Kombo backed the government’s ‘yes’ vote on the referendum. He next set his eyes on the ODM-K candidacy, a fete which at the time appeared remote, it being widely assumed that it was a two-horse race between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka.
ODM-K is currently between a rock and a hard place, trying to pick a presidential contender in a way that will pacify other candidates and assure the fragile coalition stays united. Both Raila and Kalonzo, because of their vast networks of supporters, see themselves as titans capable of holding their own, and indeed they are. Their camps hold deep suspicions of the other, with some even pledging that it is their candidate or nothing. What is clear is that if either Kalonzo or Raila get selected, ODM-K will face the very real and ever increasing prospect of potential mutiny by the candidate not picked. Worse still, Kenyan politics being what it is, Kibaki might try to lure that candidate with a lucrative offer like the Vice Presidency and or a succession to the Presidency.
However, there is a way to possibly avoid this scenario; a compromise candidate. No one currently in ODM-K fits that tab better than Musalia. Raila and Kalonzo (and others) trust Musalia to hold to whatever pact they agree on after the election more than they trust each other. They would also control the ODM-K base of MPs effectively checking Musalia’s power as the executive. What’s more, Musalia this time round would garner the support of the coveted Luhya community as a legitimate presidential candidate and is a much less polarizing figure to the rest of country than most of the other candidates. ODM-K would be able to hold its coalition, with Kalonzo and Raila appearing to have sacrificed their aspirations for the ‘good’ of the nation. Musalia may have the last laugh after all!
His Excellency the Honorable Musalia Mudavadi, president of the Republic of Kenya…hmmm, it has a certain ring to it.
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 07 June 2007 )
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Secondly, you talk of Kibaki attracting the ODM-K loser with an offer of the Vice-Presidency or succession after he leaves. Now one has to be very desperate to believe such an offer. There is no way Kibaki will be allowed to have such a man who could win a national election there. This is why Moody was chosen, expect another weak politician to get in to that spot. Mudavadi may be just that man. The day Kibaki dies or retires, the air will be filled with Uhuru for President or calls for Muthengi. This is not Moi who could contemplate a successor from another tribe.