The tribal arithmetic of ministerial and civil service appointments at the national level has helped further entrenched this rivalry, with common wisdom acknowledging that the age-old traditional competition for scarce pasture and water points is slowly metamorphosing into a new competition for equally scarce resource - provincial political power.

From time to time, North Eastern Province has produced one or two domineering politicians who completely overshadowed the rest. From the Ogles and Khalifs of Wajir to the Mohameds of Garissa the pendulum's swing between the districts' political currencies can be traced with interesting twists and turns.

Interestingly, whenever there were two contemporaneous heavyweights, one has always been in government while the other in opposition. From Hussein Maalim versus Farah Maalim to Khalif versus Beloow the political competition for prominence has been shaped in terms of connection versus acumen, Garissa versus either Wajir or Mandera.

The entry of Ali Korane into the fray in Dujis and the return of Farah Maalim in Lagdera coupled with the growing tribulations of Kerow Bilow in Mandera and Khalif in Wajir West seem to set up a stage for Garissa dominance in the provincial politics. It seems the old man of Garissa, Rtd. Gen Mohamoud will rest assured that the powerbase he created in Garissa as a whole and Dujis in particular will be safe in the hands of his ambitiously talented son-in-law, Ali Korane.

Korane and Farah are not only urbane, but they are resourced, highly visible and well connected in the national political arena. While Farah is known as one of the leading figures in the opposition onslaught against Moi rule, Korane is perhaps one of the most colourful public servants in the region's recent history.

Where Korane has a wide breadth of public administration experience unequalled by any other candidate in the entire north-eastern region, Farah, has eloquence, national political presence and unrivalled command of respect across the entire Somali clan divide. While Korane will pull the network of relationships he crafted while administering Othaya, Kisumu and Mombasa to advance his post-election political career, Farah will definitely call in a similarly developed network albeit a parliamentary one including his senior position at Ford People.

Mandera on the other hand, risks loosing the highly respectable Shadow Finance minister Kerow due to irrational clannish squabbles. The only hope for Mandera is for them to either retain Kerow or in the least replace him with Abdikadir, a successful Harvard trained lawyer.  Any other candidate will most definitely return the district to its past political obscurity.

Kerow's dilemma is not only personal but communal as well. Prior to Kerow's election, the Gareh community was the only community amongst the Somalis that had singularly failed to produce a leader who could command respect beyond the district. Their rejection of Kerow will definitely return them to political invisibility both at provincial and national levels.

Despite the impeccable professional and academic achievement of Abdikadir, for the Gareh his victory will be ominously viewed as a loss to the Digodia. Despite his suitability as a potential force for development he is not 'one of their own'. And as things stand at the moment, mathematically, that is what is most likely to happen.

Wajir, on the other hand, has never been the same since when the Ogles and Khalif left the stage either through death or retirement. In past recent years, the district had managed to galvanize around the late Khalif and a number of powerful civil servants led by Engineer Sharawi.

Again as is the case of Mandera, clannish squabbles are frustrating the emergence of a new crop of leaders who could have provided the district with respectable provincial standing and a meaningful presence at the national stage. The frustration of Ali, a senior civil servant and Ibrahim, a UK based Third Sector expert and ODM operative has left the district with a list of lacklustre candidates.

The weaknesses of the leading contenders in Wajir and Mandera is paving the way for a complete domination of provincial politics by Garissa. A line up of Ali Korane (Dujis), Farah (Lagdera) and Yusuf Haji (Ijara) ensures powerful triplets that cannot be matched elsewhere in the North East. The political dissimilarities of these trios will also ensure that Garissa will have both a strong standing in the next government and the opposition.

The recent proposed deal between the Raila Odinga allied ODM faction to allocate a position of deputy prime minister to NEP will have the effect of intensifying power struggle between the clans and sub-clans in anticipation of such an appointment. The question that will most intrigue us for the coming months will be how the Kibaki team will respond to these overt courting of NEP politicians, who amongst the leading candidates will position himself more strategically for the said offer and how the rest of the province will shape their campaign in relation to such pre-electoral promises.