Home
ODM cries wolf- again PDF Print E-mail
Written by Kamale T   
Friday, 02 November 2007

It has become the norm now that the opposition, through their cry-wolf politics and their irresponsible habit of playing to the gallery on every issue are defining the public perceptions in a style that paints the government in a bad light at every turn.

They have recently been on the rampage, alleging that the government is out to rig the December election, and that the President's appointment of new commissioners to the Electoral Commission is a tell-tale sign of what is going on behind the scenes.  In the heightened electoral atmosphere this is likely to fall on the very receptive ears of a restive public that the ODM is cynically looking to manipulate into frenzy. What does it mean for our politics though, and is the ODM rigging the elections by crying out in this fashion, essentially broadcasting that any result that does not give them a victory is a rigged one? 

To give their allegations a veneer of a relation to reality, the party has attempted to use the 1997 IPPG agreements to cast the President in a bad light. But what is the IPPG and with what responsibilities and duties does it burden the Head of State?

IPPG is the Inter-Parties Parliamentary Group; it was a coming together of KANU, the Democratic Party, FORD-Kenya, FORD-Asili and Safina. Please note that the other parliamentary party at that time, Raila Odinga's NDP elected not to participate in the IPPG talks and hence did not benefit from the agreement - i.e. it was not party to the agreement.

With specific regard to nomination of ECK commissioners, the IPPG agreement provided that each of the parliamentary parties with more than 5 parliamentary seats be allocated part of the 11 seats in the commission. This would be done in accordance with the number of seats each of the parties had in parliament. The qualified parties would then forward to the President a list of nominees in accordance with the number of openings allocated to them. Crucially, the President was not required to consult anyone in the appointment of the commissioners, but was only required to take into consideration the names provided by the respective parties.

Let us consider then the specific situation that President Kibaki finds himself in this year. By the time parliament was dissolved, Kenya's politics had evolved so much as to make complete nonsense of the political party formations that existed when the 9th parliament was inaugurated. It is perhaps only KANU that has survived, but even the Uhuru faction has lost most of its members to the three new kids on the block - the Party of National Unity, the ODM-K and the ODM.

On the basis of the IPPG agreement State House was expected to receive for consideration nominees from the agreeing parties in the IPPG arrangement. Note that no law was promulgated to compel State House to consider nominees from non-contracting parties or parties with lower than five sitting MPs. It is instructive however, that even were State House to decide to be charitable there is no mechanism extant by which these seats would be distributed. How many seats for example should be filled by ODM-K nominees under such an agreement? How many by PNU nominees? Perhaps one might think, the President should have filled these positions before the dissolution of Parliament, and maybe conducted a poll of MPs asking them what party they were affiliated with and in this way computed the allocations. But the constitution is particularly clear that nominations cannot be received when a commissioner is still in office. Remember also that the ODM parties were especially adamant that State House dissolve parliament as soon as possible.

It is clear then that the IPPG agreement, which as the Electoral Commission chairman has made clear is not entrenched in law- not even after 10 years of its signing- is not exactly workable in our circumstances. This we must say is clear to the ODM politician. So what are they complaining about and does it really matter who sits in these positions?

ODM has alleged that the president is putting into the commission his cronies, men and women who can swing the election in the PNU's favour. But is this possible? Does a committee of men and women in Nairobi really have the ability to rig an election? No, it does not. The commission has no way of determining the results in a polling station, which is where the tallying takes place.  Once the results have been announced from the polling stations, all the national organisation does is add up the numbers. It is the returning officers who are legally responsible for the elections, and it is only they who have the opportunity to rig the election. The Chairman of the electoral commission merely gazettes the appointments of these officers.

This was made crystal clear in the 1997 elections. In spite of the fact that opposition nominated commissioners sat on the ECK board, the election was rigged and irregularities to KANU's benefit were reported across the country. But it will not be the first time or the last that the ODM has tried to work up the country against the authorities. Kenyans must guard themselves against this culture of preaching falsehoods, and against ODM's naked attempt to destabilize the country if the elections do not go their way.

President Kibaki has simply followed the law, and used the powers accorded to his office in appointing the new commissioners.




Digg!Del.icio.us!Google!Facebook!Technorati!StumbleUpon!Newsvine!Yahoo!Ma.gnolia!Free social bookmarking plugins and extensions for Joomla! websites!
Trackback(0)
Comments (13)add
0
give the devil his due
written by kendirangu , November 02, 2007
You have to admit though that Kibaki who suprisingly had fought for the consultations when he was in the opposition is acting a little bit selfish by not involving his opponents.
Besides if he believes he will win freely and fairly, why be so controversial, he shld give them a chance to suggest a few names.
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
Flip Side?
written by Kerich , November 02, 2007
Now now Kamale,I am aware that your blog is partisan in favour of the incumbent but your analysis of the rigging claims is inordinately unbalanced. It is not sensational for one to claim that an incumbent seeking reelection will use obvious resources and influence he has to practice less than fiduciary practices during a fight to retain office. We saw it in 92 and in 97.Indeed one of the major reasons 02 had a sense of integrity is because the incumbent wasn't contesting.Unless you are under the impressions that Kibaki is a man of impeccable moral standards above such base tactics of rigging a poll which even you know not to be the case of benevolent Kibaki your hero. He claims that all the 4 polling companies that have shown him trailling by 10-15% are fabrications but in the DN reliable sources say that he commisioned his own poll that conirmed the same. He is panicking and I cannot put it beyond the Michuki's of the "if you rattle a snake fame" are incapable of 'mild' offences such as tampering with register in the light of "national security" and the greater good as J.Mills propounds in his utilitarianism treatise. Kibaki's henchmen have time and time again proved capable of strong arm tactics oh and I almost forgot the Arturs of the "Asst. Commissioners of Police" and govt Liscence plates and guns "fame. You all claimed sensationalism when a certain presidential candidate cried wolf over prescence of said foreigners and what followed is history. In my view, it's the Michuki's of the Right wing arm of cabinet (euphemised kitchen cabinet) that pose a danger to the securty and soverignity of the land.
The voter register are being tampered with and even PNU strong men Kamanda,Mwenje & Co. had the gall and impiunity to say "register za langata tumezipata nahiyo maneno tumeitengeneza.Sisi hatujali kurudi bunge lakini tutahakikisha huyo asi pate kiti" (not exactly verbatim but the gist of what they said at the Huruma panic rally after the big ODM launch.
I allong with many of Kenyans am convinced that underhanded tactics are being employed not because Raila said so but the actions from the PNU side backed by historical precedent show that fair play may not be guaranteed this time. Note even Kivuitu himself said he forwaded names of teams of credible observers to Tuju's office only for Tuju to ignore them in typical arrogant fashion.
Even you Kamale know full well that mischief is afoot.We do not claim that if ODM doesn't win it cannot be a free and fair election but we are simply asking that Kibaki respect the will of the people whatever it may be as transparent election are a sacrosanct pillar of democracy.
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
...
written by Kamale , November 02, 2007
Kerich,

First things first. My post was to show how dishonest the claims on IPPG are by giving a historical perspective to the agreement. That need not be partisan as these are the actual facts.

Now about your rigging claims. Surely Kenyan elections are not the same as the election of the pope where there is presumed honesty in the vote count. Kibaki will not be rigging the elections and neither will Raila do so. What will happen is that those commissioned to look after the elections on their behalf will be the agents of poll rigging. For instance, the voter turnout of 98% seen in some constituencies for the referendum was outright rigging by characters in the opposition.

My point is that I would not be surprised at efforts to rig by both sides and you can be sure where the opportunity opens up, this will happen.

With regard to the Langata voter register and the comments by Kamanda, if you have followed their comments, it is that they are bent on ensuring than Raila is not elected in Langata. They do not need to rig. All they need to do is look at the constituency demographics and then establish who they should target to vote for a Raila opponent. So with figures of 45,000 luhyias, 36,000 Kikuyus, 35,000 Luos and about 12,000 nubians, all they needed was a Livondo who can get the Luhyia vote and then get the kikuyus and the nubians to vote for Livondo. That would easily get Raila beated as these would represent about 60% of the Langata vote. Now do you want to call that rigging? I do not think so.

Finally on the observers, the last time I checked, they will normally apply to be accredited as observers and this has always been the role of ECK and not the government. So if the carter centre makes application to the ECK to observe the elections, then the government role is to facilitate their entry into the country after the ECK does the accreditation. This is what ECK says of Accreditation of Observers:

Accreditation of an Election Observer
Accreditation of Election Observers All election observers must be accredited by the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) in order to observe elections. The Electoral commission will accredit an organization where such accreditation is sought and the organization has satisfied the criteria set by the Electoral Commission. But the persons whom the organization will assign duties of election observation must be individually and separately accredited by the Electoral Commission. Thus the accreditation of an organization does not thereby accredit its selected would-be election observers. No person who is not accredited personally will be allowed to carry out the functions of election observer.Organizations or persons who wish to be accredited as observers must apply to the Electoral Commission. For an organization to be considered for accreditation it must provide the following information: -a) That it is an entity that is registered or recognized by the state where it operates from;b) The names and occupations of its national officials;c) Supply to the Electoral Commission with a copy of its Constitution;d) Demonstrate its capacity to carry out the intended observation in terms of its finances and logistics;e) A firm element of commitment that the organization, its officials and proposed election observers are impartial and non-partisan in terms of the political contestants and political issues and views throughout the election period;f) Demonstrate that the organization

report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
That\'s Better!
written by Kerich , November 02, 2007
And there I was about to loose all beleif in the credence of your writing. I however take issue with your IPPG analysis still.While I do not have as many facts as you do,I and any other Kenyan will perceive a contravention of spirit your surgical dissections notwithstanding. Note that I do agree that the IPPG wolf cries were simply politics being played by the oppposition but it also shows your mans' deterioriated political hat. He must have anticipated such criest that now fill the land and an astute polititian may have made ceremonial consultations.Now the ODM's have a field day.In matter political, often perceptions form fact and in short H.E. should have known better.
I also agree that rigging on the big day occurred and will occurr on both sides of the divide especially with the lack of agents or those that will 'kula kitu kikubwa'.
However, on the Langata issue I could not disagree more!In the simple plebian voters mind, they are faced with two choices.To vote for a man with a very real chance of being president and we all know what happens in presidential constituencies and a new kid on the block flaunting monies of suspect origin in vulgar displays that could amount to insulting their sordid state who will at best be a minister in a the very same Kibaki admin that didn't do too much for them during it's first term. Even polls held confirm my view (One of the DN polls gave him 58%) that in a fair contest he would likely retain his seat not because he is the absolute darling of the people but because of the math I justgave you.(as opppsed to the unreliable tribal math you gave me. Indeed many on the ground including Luhya's see Livondo as a governemnt project out to sabotage Raila(their heroe's)prospects.)
As for the ECK issue, wow!I am educated and it only leaves many questions. Is Kivuitu intentionally trying to get himself fired?Indeed is he working with Raila to achieve such a result so as to create widespread basis for the rigging claims?
All in all,non are clean, but what I hope and pray for is that the GoK doesn't rig somuch as to make a sham of the elections.I also read that the constitution demands that a president elect be a member of the NA but is silent in regards to a situation where the a president elect failed to clinch his seat. Now isn't that the real recipe for acrimony post elections? I would actually rather that the covert ops wing of PNU would focus on a national rigging strategy for the stability of the nation rather than these spite matches of messing with the pentagon registers.
Lord Save us and may the best lying vote buying and rigging thug win control of the instruments of state.
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
...
written by emmo opoti , November 02, 2007
I am not sure why people keep bringing up the voter registers as emblematic of an attempt at rigging. Can someone please show how collecting a list is indicative of malicious intent? Is it not possible that this is a defensive measure, against double registrations, against voter imports? If Kerich for example picked the voter list for Dagoretti, and then deleted 20,000 names from it with a red marker, would that change the nature of the list at ECK headquarters? Forgive me, sielewi, does Raila himself not have one of these lists? At the last election, I saw that every campaign manager had these lists. They would use them to ensure that they had contact with the opinion shapers, the elders, the teachers, the wenye duka, the chief's son and so on. Not unreasonable, wherever it is you are in the world, I am sure they do the same thing at campaign time.

Are we really supposed to believe that Raila Odinga the fearless is considering moving to Nyanza because of rigging? Or is it that Livondo does present an actual threat?

Now, my opinion is that ODM is intent on creating such an atmosphere as would render illegitimate any result but an ODM victory. They will find fault with the most innocuous sneeze and point it out as evidence of rigging. Then they can really have their Ukrainian style Orange Revolution, or alternatively Kenyan can face the consequences of a debilitating six month stand-off like Mexico's.

Consider for example the clamor for an extension of Kivuitu's term. Am I the only one who remembers that when Uhuru was found to be the rightful head of KANU, the High Court chided both the Registrar of Societies and Kivuitu for their irresponsible conduct. When did Kivuitu becomes chummy with the ODM? Is he even? I doubt it, there intention seems to me purely the creation of an atmosphere of such animosity and tension that they are swept into State House undeterred. This bullying tactic has been the modus operandi of the party from the 1990s, to tsunami and even to Anyang' Nyong'o's declaration on television that they are seeking a revolution.
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
right on emmo
written by kemi , November 03, 2007
Emmo, I couldnt agree more. You hit it right on. And my sense is that Raila is sensing defeat. A few months ago while Kibaki was in slumber at state house, Raila was beaming with confidence. He started chiding Kibaki as a Kinyonga(chameleon) and that he was a horse. Ala, a month later, I doubt Raila can call Kibaki a kinyonga anymore. Kibaki is pulling crowds from RV to coast. Even Lucy Kibaki is pulling bigger crowds than Ruto or Mudavadi. In short, ODM which has been campaigning for 2 years without opposition has found itself in unfamiliar territory.

So ODM is resorting to indirect intimidation that if they dont win, it must have been rigged therefore there must be a revolution aka violence. He will be surprised at how people will ignore him and his own MPs defect to PNU once Kibaki wins. I hope he remembers what he did in 1997 when all opposition leaders rejected the election results....all except himself as he started cooperating with Kanu. Asiyekubali kushindwa si mshindani.

In the US, republicans have always won because they microtarget at constituencies. If PNU finds a legal way to knock out Raila in langata by targeting certain voters, good for them. It happens in all democracies as Karl Rove has shown us.
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
...
written by Timothy Wainaina , November 03, 2007
Now that Kivuitu has again pointed out Raila's childish antics are causing tensions, perhaps it is not asking for too much that the ODM take a chill pill. We will need our Kenya in January, meanwhile I have taken all I had on the stock market out, also planning to exit my positions on those property investments. The mad men are coming in.
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
...
written by Riech , November 04, 2007
[Comment deleted by Moderator]
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
birds of a feather
written by abdulmote , November 04, 2007
What I do not understand is why did the squabling birds not see the melicious timing of the commissioners' end of term and call for its appropriate change well before hand?

Would it not have been appropriate to make sure that 'continuation' is maintained and the commissioners' term expires only after the Gen-elections have taken place or indeed well before the same?

As for the riggining possibilities; oh yes, that can easily be done especially if one has some 'commissioners' in his pockets. Besides, have you any idea it can take to lodge a petition against someone's fradulent election? Don't be surprised if one has to wait until the end of a parliamentary term to have one's case heard and determined. I would certainly be more than afraid of any possibilities of rigging were I to be a prospective presidential candidate, and especially if against such an untrustworthy kind of a fellow!

But there you are. To me they are all one and the same. It is quite clear that any of them may choose to keep silent and only lift a finger at the last minute about an existing bad law, even if it may work against them eventually, simply that one may be able to use the same if and when their time comes.

Kenyatta was equal to Moi, Kibaki, Raila and Kalonzo. The game continues but the selfish and nave shall never see it.
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
Kibaki NEVER whined about frau
written by Jaluth MaSoko , November 05, 2007
Of course the great leader never cried foul

1)Mr Kibaki felt the commission ordered more voters' cards than was required in anticipation of a run-off without stating exactly who they had expected to feature in the run-off and why. http://www.nationaudio.com/ele...s_EC6.html

2)Jan 8, 1998 DP chairman Mwai Kibaki said he would use the courts to challenge Moi's election victory. He said vote-rigging occurred throughout Kenya, but there were glaring violations in the Coast and northeastern provinces.

http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/chronology.asp?groupId=50111
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
Come Now!
written by Kerich , November 05, 2007
Emmo and Kemi
Your comments are unreasonably alarmist. All this talk of armagedon in the case of an ODM victory is unwarranted. Life will continue peacefully. I also take exception to your uncompromising onesided arguments.Cede some ground from time to time, it's what makes political blogging interesting.Wake up and realise that the PNU gang are not as principled and integrity filled as you would like to think what with Nyachae's Oyoo yo(By the way Nyachae still walks free despite caught on tape incitement of the electorate to violence that resulted in injury to poiticians-which by the way is what caused Sondu which was an expected revenge mission) and nyachae is still MK's buddy,no admonishment ever from benevolent Kibaki.Then there's also the latest Meru and Chuka incidences.Thank God Mudavadi called on their supporters to not revenge. I shudder to think what will happen when Kibaki Tena peeps land in Luo Nyanza what with the precedent that has been set.Clearly, the PNU bigwigs are culpable for strong arming and creation of animosity that y'all talk about.
Now being the balanced mind I claim to be, It's not lost on me that violence erupted in Lang'ata too and Raila's condemning of it was there but not strong enough. So what am I saying,take these politicians with the hoards of salt they deserve as does Abdulmote. When I vote, Ill probably vote ODM but with great reservations indeed. I'll do so because they have presented a platform of reform and Social Democracy which is my ideology. I picked some Republican sentiments somewhere and I take it y'all are os the Right wing capitalist economic and governmental paradigm. Raila in an interview spoke of the Third Way being advocated in Europe as the way to social justice,reduced dipsarities and ironically an even more vibrabt economy. Whether ODM delivers my dream remains to be seen but at least we are beginning to have a shift from oligarchal rule to plebiscsite rule where the political class realises that we sign their job forms.
I could be a bleeding heart romantic but I insist on hope.Maybe Raila is a political demagogue praying on this,I font know.But I hope for heavens sake that your rigid stances and absolutism change over what is largely just an ideological difference of how to get to Canaan where we both want to get.
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
karua said folks were consulte
written by Jaluth MaSoko , November 05, 2007
Which folks were these? out of 5 commisioners the ODMs should have been allowed one each - at least, as a gesture of magnanimity.

The IPPG scandal is costing the President a lot of goodwil. But thats OK. he is determinded to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
0
saidia
written by Magothe , November 08, 2007
Whats happening with the ODM malaika and the "change" agenda?
Direct nominations-I thought these went out with Moi?
Majimbo-I thought this was dismissed in 1964?
MOUs with Muslims-I thought these have been disparaged since 2002?
Empty promises aka roadside declarations- ETRs to be abolished (who is going to pay for the all freebies?); KQ to export miraa from Meru?
report abuse
vote down
vote up
Votes: +0
Write comment

security image
Write the displayed characters


busy
Last Updated ( Friday, 02 November 2007 )
 
< Prev   Next >


Archives | About Us | KenyaImagine How To | Privacy Policy | ContactUs | Join KenyaImagine |  Advertise Here| Legal Disclaimer | Terms & Conditions | Directory
rss-2.png

 

Copyright 2009 KenyaImagine.com, the KenyaImagine logo and KenyaImagine.com are trademarks of  The Imagine Company