Truth be told, not much has improved in the Kibaki camp since then. For all the Vijana na Kibaki rhetoric or the Lee Karuri million-dollar-baby, it still retains the charm and lethargy of a retirement home. They still are not really campaigning in any way that would enthuse their supporters, the majority of whom are left looking on jealously at the passion and drama of the Orange Democratic Movement; and those beautiful orange tops. How they must wish had a party colour!! While ODM makes up slogans like the ‘future is orange', Kibaki's allies mess about with such dullness as GNU, and the ‘flower party', names that inspire not even the most ardent believer.

The difference in the consequences this time however will be in two fatal decisions of ODM's. The first and most obvious one was the selection of Raila Odinga as the party's presidential candidate. True, wiser souls in ODM tried to forestall this inevitability, but such is the coercive power of the mysterious jagganatha.

What those elders foresaw, and others ignored, is the plain fact that the probability of an extended tenancy at State House for Mwai Kibaki was boosted by the selection of Raila as ODM's candidate. As recent reality has shown, the selection of Raila ensured that Kibaki would be facing a fractured opposition, and that many who would otherwise have vigorously opposed the incumbent now find themselves either supporting him, supporting Kalonzo Musyoka, adopting a neutral stance or else offering a reluctant shingo-upande presence in ODM with little active participation.

Billow Kerrow? Charity Ngilu? Uhuru Kenyatta? Jebii Kilimo? Wangari Maathai, Maoka Maore, Joe Khamisi, even Kalonzo Musyoka and Musikari Kombo ( or Mukhisa Kituyi) where are they now? Even as I write, the New FORD-K party is unsure whether or not it should hitch itself to the Raila ticket despite its obvious reluctance to wed itself to Kibaki.

The glaring fact is that with a different management and leadership in ODM, all those mentioned above would have been forces ready to sink gold and passion into the campaign against Kibaki's Presidency. After all, there is really very little that the he can offer them that would be unavailable to them in ODM. Indeed, most of them are likely to gain a larger profile within an ODM government than they would in the crowded Kibaki coalition, PNU.

Moreover, it is not easy being an ally of this President. The Kibaki government, it is now clear, is not the change that Kenyans prayed and fasted for, it has proved to be just as corrupt, tribalistic and unsympathetic as the previous government. The Kroll Report, Anglo-Leasing and Goldenberg Scandals, the Ndung'u Report are just the tip of the cold shoulder insulating Mwai Kibaki from the love of the people of Kenya. Even worse, the president has reneged on so many political promises through the length of his term that it is unlikely that there is anyone so naïve as to trust him to stay true to his word.

So why then is it that the colossal lead ODM had in opinion polls only two years ago has vanished, why are so many who would have moved away from the government stayed with Kibaki? In the intervening period- between the present and the referendum, Prof. Saitoti has been absolved of Goldenberg, Kiraitu Murungi and David Mwiraria have returned to the Cabinet and the leaked Kroll report has established the complicity of the executive in hushing up the crimes of the Moi years. All these are reasons to expect that ODM's lead at the referendum would have been swelled by millions more migrating away from any association with the Kibaki government. Instead, far from being ostracised Kibaki's numbers seem to be on the rise, and many who disapprove of his government are finding themselves obliged into voting him back into parliament. This quite simply, is the consequence of the rise of Raila Odinga as ODM supremo and eventual Presidential Candidate, and he is the reason why a failed president will in 2007 be returned to State House. The manner and ways of the ODM leader represent so difficult a prospect to countenance, that many would rather offer their tacit support to Kibaki than vote for Raila's 'reform' movement.

And finally to Kibaki's masterstroke, which doubles up as the second of the two fatal decisions by ODM. Whereas Kibaki and his advisers are willing to go for so loose an alliance as to even consider the name, Party of National Unity, ODM are adamant that their's is a party to replace other parties. So while Kibaki builds a list of allies, subsuming them under an umbrella body that promotes their independence and even encourages their vibrance, ODM demands that the parties let it consume them; that they cease to exist. This was a clearly unnecessary and considering its leader's reputation, strategically unsound decision by ODM's strategists.

The upshot is, that even as ODM faces the prospect of facing half a dozen parties at the General Election, the Parties of National Unity can concentrate their resources (supplemented no doubt by the President's war-chest) on the regions of their greatest strength. Permitting the tribal chieftains their suzerainty, while allowing them the association with the prestige and inertia of the sitting Head of State makes the Kibaki team's work so much easier. Whereas Raila Odinga and his minions will have to wear themselves out jetting about the country seeking votes, President Kibaki can simply have his regional chieftains do the hard slog for him while he sits back, plays the paternal figure and mops up the vote.

Meanwhile Raila has to raise the funds, the time and the energy to campaign against Nyachae in Gusii, Moi in the Rift Valley, Shirikisho at the Coast, Ford-Kenya, Mukhisa Kituyi and Cyrus Jirongo in Western Kenya; and Kalonzo and Ngilu in Ukambani. And to convince the communities that he has nothing but sincere, warm feelings towards their leaders; feelings very different than the ones evinced towards Kalonzo Musyoka.

Two years. Such a short time, so many regrets later.