The Steadman Group will tomorrow release its latest findings on Kenyans' views of their presidential candidates and their political parties. Those findings have already been tainted by discussions held by senior members of President Kibaki's campaign team and Steadman staff. According to our sources, the first such meeting took place at Steadman's offices last Saturday, and moved onto a Kibaki associate's residence.   

Such contacts between these two sets of officials completely undermine the cardinal principle of impartiality that lies at the heart of a pollster's credibility.    

Close connections between President Kibaki's associates and Steadman officials, as well as persistent reports that one of these associates is a director of the company, have dogged Steadman poll results for some time. 

Suspicions were heightened a fortnight ago when a new Steadman poll pronounced that while Mr. Raila Odinga was still ahead, the gap between him and President Kibaki had narrowed significantly from the previous poll.  

Independent pollsters immediately raised a series of important concerns about the new poll figures, which Steadman acknowledged were based on a new sampling methodology. One major concern was that this methodology could easily have resulted in more PNU sympathizers having been polled.  

Even more importantly, unlike other polls, this one did not provide data for provincial and ethnic leanings. The regional data was a very significant omission, as it is used to cross check the national figures. To allay fears about the cause of this vital omission, Mr. Waititu promised at his press conference to provide the regional data to journalists.  But this data has in fact not been provided.    

In explaining the new methodology, Steadman asserted that they had this time interviewed registered voters only. But it was clear from the poll that no effort had been made to verify whether in fact registered voters only were being interviewed. More important, however, was the fact that the ECK had not in fact completed the voters register. In any event, another pollster doing polls for a national daily found that there was no statistical difference in the results obtained by the two differing methodologies!   

Suspicion was also raised by other contradictions. In identifying the cause for the narrowed race, Steadman indicated that one factor was that PNU messages were more effective than ODM's. But then Steadman also explicitly said that it had not studied the reasons for the shift in perceptions.    

In addition, the language used in describing the poll results showed how deep the pro-Kibaki bias was. Among other things, Steadman asserted that the poll showed that the president had "galloped" ahead from the last poll readings. In fact, his rating had risen only three points - which was entirely within the margin of error, and therefore not particularly significant statistically.

Major doubts about the Steadman's credibility rose during the referendum two years ago.  In their last poll before the actual voting, those polled indicated they would decisively hand ODM a victory over the Kibaki government. The poll was sent out to the media - but then was abruptly withdrawn. 

When word of this astonishing action got out, Steadman lamely explained that they had withdrawn it because they were afraid their poll results would affect the way people voted.   Such blatantly pro-government bias is unacceptable in a polling organization. It falsifies people's preferences, and strikes at the very heart of the polling concept.     

ODM would like to take this opportunity to welcome the arrival of the internationally renowned Gallup polling organization to Kenya. Their first poll yesterday showed that Mr. Odinga has only a slight lead over President Kibaki. We have no problem with that, since we have no reason to believe that the research and findings were skewed to achieve a particular end.  

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written by Kamale , November 23, 2007

Crying wolf?

So what happens when Gallup has Kibaki in the lead when they do their next lot of polls?

You just have to hand it to these guys!!!

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written by Nyabs , November 23, 2007

A very refined response from ODM this time round. I hold not brief for PNU ( I still have questions I would love to pose to Kibaki on his stewarship of Kenya over the last five years if I ever get that chance) but I believe that the euphoria has worn out and Kenyans are asking themselves the hard question as to whether an ODM government would be any improvement over the current one and maybe finding the answer rather disconcerting, hence beginning to reluctantly agree that maybe the devil the know may be better than the angel they don't, hence the slow but steady advancement of Kibaki.

Secondly, I believe that some sincerity ( I am an optimist, so I believe there must be some morsel, however minute, of sincerity that can be found in the Kenyan politician. The recent fiasco over the nominations does not give much reason to be this optimistic but hey, a man has to live)would not hurt. ODM had no problems with Steadman when polls showed that they were leading, but are now insinuating all manner of things being done in all manner of dark and secret places. By the same stroke, I would like to wipe the smirk out of PNUs faces because they have they have responded in the same way as ODM- happy when they are in the lead and very mad with Steadman when they are not.

Is it too much to ask for some level of sincerity from the two ODMs and PNU? I guess I am asking for too much but being an optimist is healthier than being a pessimist, but I am not holding my breath either, since, to paraphase one interesting Kenyan, I may die of suffocation as I wait to see sincerity in the politicians of the three competing camps.

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written by Heaz , November 25, 2007

The above two responses get alot of respect from me! I always enjoy reading through sincere, accurate, articulate and sober opinions. Nyabs & Kamale - Kudos!!

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Opinion Polls
written by donde , November 26, 2007

It seem of late that the Steadman polls have been skewed in favour of the incumbent. It seems the last poll on Friday had to be doctored in a huff after a leakage of the doctored percentages before the briefing and in the process leading to a flawed polls which cannot just tie up. I wonder what excuse the Waititu guy will come up with this time , i hope next time they should also carry out polls to ascertain level people's confidence in them which i for sure know that will be shocking !

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Mr.
written by Jim , December 06, 2007

I am looking forward to receiving the results of this latest poll by Steadman and other pollsters tomorrow.

Clearly, ODM have a head start with enough insiders to let them know what to expect. Lets face it, Raila's profile was buoyed by the initial Steadman poll and for the first time a raila presidency became a real possibility.

Raila has since conceded several blows to his campaign by what appears to be a well oiled PNU propaganda machinery. I beleieve its only going to get hotter as the day draws near and every team must stay composed and focused on the race and not on the opponent's tactics- they say 'all is fair in love and war.'

In this battle for wits, the voter gets to decide who wins. A true champion never gives up until the final whistle is blown. ODM must compose themselves and stay focused to keep in the race.

And whats all this fuss anyway? the real poll is on 27th Dec and the man they all say was capable, Mr. Kivuitu is in charge, he's the guy to watch.

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