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One Kenya indivisible, elections now PDF Print E-mail
Written by Amir Ibrahim   
Saturday, 16 February 2008

A distraught friend of mine wrote to me recently, asking that the Kenyan middle class join up in arms, that we refuse completely to cosset any longer the spirit of separatism and hatred that has taken over our country. Yesterday, I read from Patrick Gathara here, an article asking why we are at all tolerating the idea that there are Kenyans who have ancestral rights to sections of this country. I hate to imagine where this notion would take Kenyans were oil to be found near my home in North Eastern Province, or should we finally decide to take on a grown up energy policy and flood Marsabit with alternative energy solutions.

I digress; but it is now clear that Kenyans are today presented with a choice, a most exigent and defining choice, one which we will have to make here and now and whose postponement only emboldens the foes of the nation, postpones a true settlement and makes more catastrophic the final outcome of the present stalemate. Let's discard the idea of a grand coalition, we know it will not work. We are a nation under siege, some courage would not be out of place; we need to have elections now to end the blockade of the Rift Valley.

We are not just referring to the presidential election, not just to the parliamentary one, we need a General Election now, and we need to decide whether we want to remain Kenyans or whether we will allow people to carve out states for themselves in our midst.  Are we all Kenyans? Are there Kenyans who may be touched, and others who we should treat as brothers?

We need to give the executive the ammunition to smash those signposts welcoming people to the Republic of the Rift Valley, we need to give officers of government the power to authorise the disarming of the entire Rift Valley, the annihilation of every soul that is willing to raise arms against its neighbour. Such campaigns are crucial if we are to save lives, the enemies arranged against us are many and are organised, but a head of state, any head of state whose legitimacy is not beyond question, whoever he is, cannot order such measures without running the risk of a mutiny in the security forces and a total civil war.

We cannot ignore that there are citizens from our country arranged in tents and shacks at police stations. We cannot permit that families have been moved from their sources of income in Naivasha and been thrust on relatives they were likely supporting in Homa Bay. There must now be a national campaign to re-arm these refugees with their votes, all those who have been expelled from their homes.  If the bigots among us thought that they could disenfranchise Kenyans by chasing them from their homes, we must work to give those Kenyans their votes. Our national emblems demand it, that we affirm to the criminal gangs, to the politicians behind them and to the victims of the violence that there is only one Kenya; indivisible.

If the IDPs cannot return to their homes for fear of violence, let us have them vote from the refugee camps, after all it is only the law as confirmed through this election that can regain their paradise for them. Let them vote as Limuru residents, even if they are now resident in Busia. A president whose legitimacy is in question cannot order the annihilation of the arsonists, he cannot quell the thirst for revenge, he cannot order the prosecution of those who fill the airwaves with bile, or the incarceration of those who finance and inspire these brigades of anarchy. A president whose legitimacy is uncertain cannot call on the support of donor aid or the business class to help rebuild the country. He cannot risk the urgent rebuilding of Kisumu; he cannot assure tourists that the country has been pacified and that a holiday in Kenya would be a treat.

We need to confer legitimacy on our national institutions; we need to turn a page. We cannot any longer suffer the sticky present, where we cannot make plans, where doctors are kept away from their hospitals, where HIV-AIDS drugs cannot get to patients, where univerisities and national schools are half empty and where fuel is absent from our third largest city. This is Kenya, it is not Zimbabwe. A famine is looming with the North Rift idle and supply lines interrupted, urgent work fertiliser application, weeding and sowing needs to be done. Children are losing out as schools are burned and armed mobs threaten school heads with murder.

We need to affirm our sovereignty. We cannot any longer listen to patronising lectures from on high about how to run our country. However, irritating as those lectures are our present predicament declares that we need them, it declares we cannot govern ourselves, that we deserve to be told how, and that the haughtier the voice, the more arrogant the attitude, the more likely its chances of success with us; for we do not listen to reason.

With every day of violence, with every day of uncertainty we are shedding millions of dollars in national revenue and haemorrhaging the world's goodwill.  Stickers marked ethnic cleansing do not come off easily, and we cannot even start healing while we are engaged in a stalemate with politicians talking peace in Nairobi and preaching hate over the weekend.

We are precluding long term investment and compelling even our neighbours to seek alternative routes for their cargo. Every single day that the Luo farm workers from Central Kenya spend in Nyanza questions the validity of the Kenyan state. Every single day that Kisumu lies in ruins entrenches the feeling of exclusion and marginalisation. Yes, I know, they did it to themselves. But that is no excuse when we are one family, and those sufferering are our brothers and sisters. The fact that milk farmers in the North Rift are suffering the consequences of having destroyed their KCC dairy is no cause for Schadenfreude. We  may not see the links now, in our comfy offices, behind our high gates and our bulky guards, in the safety of our regions, in the isolation offered by being surrounded by people we share an ethnicity with but the destruction in one part of Kenya, the empty hotels at the coast, the interruption to tea exports, the silly campaigns and boycotts, and the total mess that is the Kenyan media and civil society portend an even greater implosion if we do not pull our fingers out.

Those against elections argue that we are likely to face violent campaigns. True, but the alternative is still more violence, there are armed groups being organised even now.  These groups threaten to burn the Rift Valley up unless their man is made president. Latest reports from Nairobi indicate that the politicians want to review the election. What then? What if the review decides that Mwai Kibaki ought to remain in State House? What if it determines that Raila Odinga should be the new President? What chance that the opposing side will accept that?  Elections are the only way out.

We can ask the international community to send troops, we can even pay them out of our national coffers. The business class would be only too happy to have this issue settled once and for all. Two months, one month for the campaign and another for the post election settlement. Then we can truly move on. 

While our opponent and its cohort insist on difference, we must insist on sameness, on fraternity. We must embrace our Kikuyu brothers and dismiss the evil crusade against them. We must insist that every last Kenyan, across racial lines and across ethnic lines has a right, not just to settle anywhere, but to work there, to run for political office and to take on whatever political stance.  This is no binary politics, this is no good versus evil; this is the very survival of our country. 


Amir Ibrahim
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written by Stephen Wanyama , February 16, 2008
Passionate and timely. For those of us with something to lose, whether it is property or our lives, there is no way out but fresh elections. Elections will also give us a chance to step back and quickly address what it is exactly we want with our future.

All this talk of reforms and blah seems to me very much a waste of time unless there is a big clunky fist to enforce the law. For example will the ODM agree to have a constitution boundary review knowing full well that their tribal arithmetic will then come apart, will the ODM let go of the divisive majimbo, yet that is what has won them support of tribalists across the country, a very large part of the electorate in Kenya.
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But Raila and Kibaki should no
written by Nyabs , February 16, 2008
I agree, with only two caveats. That Kibaki and Raila should not contest. They are both polarizing and may cause us more chaos.

The second caveat is that known warlords and those implicated in corrupt deals should also be banned from contesting.

Problem is identifying them and amassing enough evidence against them in order to legitimately bar them will take time.

But another election should be an opportunity to sweep away all those people who by their acts of omission or commission, have brought the country to its knees.

Only with a clean set of leaders can the nation begin to heal and move on.
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well said
written by JV Ogot , February 16, 2008
I am afraid I do not see much coming out of the talks either, and the period between now and the next election is one of de facto retardation. Is anyone with a brain going to invest in Kisumu knowing full well that their property could be destroyed in a year's time? What will happen to all the jobless Kenyans? We must not forget that this is how Mungiki came to be.

I am opposed to the ODM, but even should they win the election, it would be much better to have that than the current stalemate. We need something to unify us, we need to shame the hatemongers, for as long as people like Raila, Kones, Bett and Ruto are in government, Kenyans cannot move on.

Will I soon be asked to vacate my Nairobi house? I commend the writers here for one thing, the total rejection of the idea that there is a land issue. I have read countless accounts of people being leased land in the Rift Valley, there is no land pressure there, what we have are murderous gangs.

Elections now, and may the people decide. Karua should give Ruto this bone to chew on.

P.S. In parts of Western Europe they have laws against Holocaust denial. We must soon get such laws, to dissuade people like Maina Kiai and Muthoni Wanyeki. You know in Tanzania, the kind of anti-Kikuyu hating we heard from the ODM, is strictly illegal.
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Nyabs
written by Stephen Wanyama , February 16, 2008
It is impossible to keep the warmongers from running because of the tribalised system. I do agree that Kibaki and Raila should stand aside. Kibaki can do us a favour and stand aside even if Raila is running.
The major issue for me will be in securing the vote. One thing no one has picked up on is the fact that in many places, there was not a free and fair election, especially in the Rift Valley and Nyanza, but also in places like Langata. There was quite a lot of input rigging. In a place like Langata we need helicopters in the air to ensure no one is waylaid. There is evidence that Raila did not even win Lang'ata!

We can sub-contract the entire election to Singapore or someone else that is neutral, maybe Russia even. I am confident that the anti-ODM candidate will win. Too many people have seen what ODMism does, especially in the Rift Valley and Nyanza. The attacks on Kisiis and Kambas, and lately on Luhyas have really worked against the ODM, damaged them perhaps for ever even.
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Warmongers- We must exclude th
written by Nyabs , February 16, 2008
@Wanyama,

Allow me to disagree. We can exclude warmongers if they are brought to justice in the international courts. I agree that trying to bring the real masterminds to justice in local courts will be seen through the ethnic lens.

Raila should be excluded. He is even more polarizing than Kibaki.
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written by manta ray , February 16, 2008
We should have fresh elections under UN supervision.
Peace-enforcing troops, as opposed to peace-keeping troops, should be deployed, with contingents coming from the US, the EU[excluding the UK],China and some African nations like South Africa and Egypt.
Kibaki and Raila must step aside as they are too polarizing. That is a compromise too.
The new Govt should embark on comprehensive constitutional reforms preceded by a new and impartial Census that will form the basis of creating new constituencies, and also correct the gerrymandering of the Moi years.
A new census would also help sober up a few ODM hotheads, especially in the Rift Valley.
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written by James Watt , February 16, 2008
I personally don't believe new elections are the answer. How sadistic, is it, to go canvassing for votes among the dispossessed, the bereaved, with clear danger of them being exterminated after the elections. And how free or fair would those elections be when voters in the last one were killed, dispossessed, raped and maimed on account of how their tribes voted? No we don't need elections in Kenya for a long time. Not until every last of those dispossessed has been resettled and has rebuild their lives. The trouble is not with Kibaki and Raila. If you put two people in their stead, they'll excite as similar passion, the country will just be as divided, the elections will just be as close and we will still be where we are today. The problem was that we had an extremely close election and the loser in those election put his case better across. Methinks, resolving what who actually won the last elections we had is the best option,we have. If enough resources are put towards that end, I'm sure we can find out. The returning officers are not dead and neither are the ECK commisioners as well as presiding officers etc. Further more, shoulfn't each and every party have 27 000+ signed copies of Form 16 As. Can't we compare the batch from PNU, ODM and ODM -K to get to the truth? After all when will people ever learn, if there are no consequences for their wrongful actions, if that is proved to be the case? If the elections was however fairly won, and the opposition knows that, shouldn't we shame this politicians for a campaign based on pure lies? Are we going to turn our elections to the UN now? What a shame! Why don't we return our leadership to the Brits also as a certain Mr. Kipkorir was suggesting today. Speaking of elections, I hope you are following the US primaries. The US state of New Mexico took 9 days to return resuls from that state. We are talking of a few thousand voters. And how about this story from the NY times.
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written by Amir Ibrahim , February 16, 2008
James, my contention is that nothing is possible without a president who is nationally acceptable. An audit of the election results is possible, but I am told that an audit has already been done and the ODM know that they lost. So even if another one is conducted, it will not change much, in any case both sides allege pre-count rigging, i.e. that ballots were stuffed. The PNU and ODM-K agents were not permitted to Nyanza and RVP counting halls either, or Nyayo Stadium for the Lang'ata seat.

Secondly, even were we to have an audit, the country needs to feel that its votes counted. A backroom deal that endorses one candidate or the other will not go down well across the country. And remember that for ODM the only acceptable result is failure for the PNU. At the very minimum they want to be in government. Is that acceptable?

Please consider my argument about the military and the police. James, the President cannot act to protect his citizens because he does not have the full confidence of the military. A shadowy audit cannot grant legitimacy.

Remember that the ODM, civil society and the int'l media have decided (against all the facts) that there are genuine historical grievances held by the rest of Kenya against the Kikuyu. As long as this perception persists there will be no 'natural' peace. It will have to be enforced.

Is it callous to call an election with IDPs about? That is exactly what the ODM would like for us to believe, but James, if the president (as you can clearly see) knows that he does not have the power now to take these people back to their homes, what will change after the audit? The EU and the Brits will simply say that Kibaki is killing Luos, or Kalenjin.

About inviting the British back. Well they did not leave ever. Did you not see the British Int' Development Mn promoting Kenyan roses from Brit companies? What is the price of our sovereignty? Is it edible?

We need to get intolerant against this spirit of hate.
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written by James Watt , February 16, 2008
Amir, I hear you but what makes you think that a new election won't deliver the same results, which if God forbid PNU wins will suffer the same fate the last one did. By extension of that thought, we don't need new elections. We just need to hand ODM the reigns of power after all they have the more violent followers, who'll wreak havoc should any election, fair or rigged not go in their favour. Actually to have an elections now, we would not only need the UN to supervise them, preferably with no kenyan staff involved but we'd need a foreign neutral army to deal with the consequences of the election. Just imagine the cost of holding that election and by extension all future elections in which one party is not willing to accept defeat. The elections a small part in the democratic process become a monster bigger than King Kong!
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written by kboit , February 16, 2008
Regardless of who runs, the focus should be on reforming the structure of the executive and judiciary so as to balance the powers more evenly with a nice heavy dose of transparency. In an ideal world our current structure would allow a true leader to enact speedy and far-reaching policies that make us the social and economic envy of the world. Unfortunately our powerful executive could also allow a malevolent dictator to easily drive our nation into the ground.

Whether or not Kibaki (or any other would-be-president) is the best for Kenya should not be the first issue of focus. Reform must come first - not only to protect us from an "evil president" but to protect a "good president" from political witch-hunting. Did Kibaki, Moi and Kenyatta really focus development and resources in the hands of their respective "interest groups". That should not be the question. Let's assume every president past present and future CAN and WILL rape the country at a moments notice ... we should make it such that I would be very difficult for a single individual to skew resource allocation of the nation.

Let's be honest - we are all biased. I could never guarantee the benevolence of even my most saintly friend each and every second of the day for five years. Yes, it's true that if we devolve power across several groups then policy enactment will slow down a bit - but that the beauty of it - we should make our government structure dependent on unity. And with time - as the various groups come to trust each other and the collective identity of "Kenyan" becomes more of a reality (at par or more than tribal identity) then we will move forward faster, and stronger.
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Where are those audit results?
written by Nyabs , February 16, 2008
Amir Ibrahim wrote:
James, my contention is that nothing is possible without a president who is nationally acceptable. An audit of the election results is possible, but I am told that an audit has already been done and the ODM know that they lost. So even if another one is conducted, it will not change much, in any case both sides allege pre-count rigging, i.e. that ballots were stuffed. The PNU and ODM-K agents were not permitted to Nyanza and RVP counting halls either, or Nyayo Stadium for the Lang'ata seat.


@Amir, why are the results of that audit not out in the public domain. I was following the elections with a lot of interest and remember very well the selection of a team of people to do an audit. But the following day, when Kivuitu began to announce the results, all hell broke loss, forcing him to announce the results from that famous small room.

It would have been in the interest of everyone if the results of that audit had been announced publicly, which would have, hopefully, put pressure on ODM to accept the results.

So what actual happened with this audit? Anyone in the know?
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written by Stephen Wanyama , February 16, 2008
Like Adede, I think all those calling for reforms first are being facetious, or even naive. This entire business of reforms only works at some level in Nairobi and the cities. On a more fundamental level, we have now irrefutable evidence that the Rift Valley violence was pre-planned and would perhaps have been worse had ODM won. So it really has little to do with the powers of the president.

Let's see about agriculture. The Rift Valley has done very well in the last five years. It is extremely dishonest to pretend that this violence has any roots in poverty, governance issues, marginalisation or delivery. I really need to see someone explain to me how the Kipsigis and Nandi have done poorly during the Kibaki years.

I agree with Amin. What we need first is law enforcement. The BBC just now showed ODM goons patrolling in Kibera wielding pangas and declaring that they do not want to share power. We can dither we can wait, but we are only postponing the explosion. There is only one way the likes of Ruto and Raila know how to operate, kicks, slaps, punches and more. Really look through their histories.

What chances are there that the government will not collapse in a month and return us to this same place? The wananchi have been told that the Kikuyu rape Kenya. Does a grand coalition change that?
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Structures? What structures?
written by benadede , February 16, 2008
Sorry people, I will digress a bit but in doing so give two examples of how silly and stupid Kenyans can be and thus compromise our move into a modern and prosperous state.

First let me start with the Imanyara/Lucy Kibaki saga. Initially I treated it as a rumour then Imanyara confirmed the story only for State House to deny such an incident happened. Both parties threatened to sue in a court of law. The next thing I see is this nonsensical article.

The second article was about the proceedings at the late Mugabe Were's burial. For some unknown reason, some of his relatives decided to ostracise his second wife (either because she is Kikuyu or some archaic traditions) to the point that she was denied the opportunity to view her husband before burial and two MPs had to plead with mourners to allow her sit at the dias. This young lady is traumatised by the death of her husband. She is the one he was going home to when he was shot. She was the one who drove him to hospital when he was shot. She is the one he had decided to spend his life with. What right do these strangers have to harass her in her moment of grief?

Unless Kenyans (top-down and bottom up) decide to be civil and take there responsibilities seriously, changing our structures without embracing moral values will not solve our problems.
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written by Ali , February 17, 2008
(Confuse posting deleted. Ed.)
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Security of Tenure
written by benadede , February 17, 2008
Security of Tenure is one of those tools we have in the current constitution to ensure that office holders are not intimidated by the executive e.t.c Currently two of the offices protected by security of tenure and that have let the country down over the years are presided over by people whose academic and professional records point to men with brains. These are the AG Wako and CJ Gicheru.
There is no doubt that since 1992 (or is it 1991), Amos Wako has been sleeping on the job despite his security of tenure. Amongst others who have accused him of slowing down the wheels of justice include Ringera and Gicheru.
Gicheru on the other hand presides over a judiciary that continues to give questionable judgements or take eons to conclude cases. I was rather surprised that it took him about one and a half months to respond to Raila's charge that the judiciary is partial and not capable of dispensing swift and fair justice. Even then it was done in a meek way asking a rhetorical question that a number of ordinary Kenyans had already been asking. Meanwhile, the rest of the judges and magistrates are quiet as though they accept this accusation.
Anyway, my question is, what more can be done to make someone do his job than give them good perks and security of tenure? What more reforms can we make to make the wheels of justice move?
Meanwhile, our overwhelmed police force continues to drag its feet on hauling perpetrators of violence to court.

Aah, and the media. The mainstream media houses are just as much to blame in this quagmire. For example, in todays Nation one of the stories has the headline "Rift Valley biggest losers in party nominations". Now tell me such stories do not incite people or is misplaced. For example, why not "Women and Youth the biggest losers". The media has been very important in building ethnic consciousness amongst Kenyans and helping questionable characters build political careers without exposing their bad deeds.
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Reforms first
written by Daniel.Waweru , February 17, 2008
As ever, people I respect (Wanyama, Ibrahim, et alii), espouse opinions radically different from mine: they think that elections now (or some time in the near future) are a good idea. They're wrong.

Practicalities first. We now know (or should) that the electoral register is seriously flawed; the Present constituency boundaries are little short of a travesty (some areas in Kenya are underrepresented, or overrepresented, according to taste); IDPs should be resettled before there are elections, else there'll be substantial disenfranchisement, and ethnic cleansing will be rewarded...

Second. It as clear as clear can be that there are severe structural problems with our legal-constitutional order, which structural problems have contributed to the current mess. The most serious ones, in no particular order: the excessive powers of the President, and the excessive weakness of Parliament. The concentration of power in the Presidency has had a terrible effect on trust: the losers of an election to the Presidency have no defence defence against Leviathan. Further, in this case, both sides have serious wrongdoing to conceal. Neither side, then, can accept even a legitimate victory by the other. The minimal amount of trust necessary for government by consent is lacking. So, even if we held elections now, and one side duly won; the other side simply would not concede their right to rule.
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written by Mr. Vikii , February 17, 2008
All these posts are very well written, but most are missing the point. We do not need fresh elections. What we need, and I can't believe you people disagree with this, are reforms. Let us reform our institutions. Let us have an accountable government and a strong opposition.Let us empower the office of the leader of offcial opposition. Let Raila Odinga accept the verdict of the people and report to office on Monday.(I am actually suprised he has not turned down the emoluments meant for the leader of official opposition in his January paycheck. He should have done so and demanded those of the President).

Amin, fresh elections cannot work. There are many people in Central Kenya who voted for Odinga. Likewise, there are people in Nyanza and Mt. Elgon that voted for Kibaki. These people had beliefs that they voted for the right candidate. These people, if they are known have been villified. They are demonised left, right and centre. Some of them have actually paid the price of exercising their democratic rights with their lives. Now tell me, if we call elections today, will Kibaki campaign freely in Mbita? Will Amos Kimunya and Kalonzo Musyoka be able to campaign for the President in Eldoret? Can william Ruto set foot in Thika in search of votes for Raila Odinga and leave alive? OK, assuming they can, will those people who do not subscribe to their communities' popular view be able to vote for their candidate without fear of being beheaded or burnt alive? These are not idle questions. These are questions that should make us accept the fact an election today will not reflect the true will of the people. Those will be fictitious elections meant to please a few people but whose results have no basis whatsoever in the democratic will of the people.

The soution once again lies in stronger institutions and a less powerful President.

Those people who mishandled Mrs Were at the burial of her husband are the ones Kivuitu said should never have graced this world. I have nothing personal against any culture, but the truth is that some cultures MUST start to evolve now. Memories of what transpired in Kitale right after Michael wamalwa's death are still fresh. These things have nothing to do with institutions but primitivism.
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Will a runoff do the trick
written by Aliosema , February 17, 2008
I was initially convinced that having another election would not work, but I am slowly coming to realisation that the so called powersharing would be a recipe for disaster.

I believe that the bickering, mud slinging, accusations and polarisation that we saw this last five years would continue and we would be even more divided by the time this is all over.

I suggest that what we need is not a re-election, what we need is a simple runoff. With the two top contenders vying for over 50% of the vote and allowing voters registered in constituencies from which they have been displaced to vote from whereever they are (in order that the 25% minimum is possible - i.e. to defy those who sought to ensure that in the event of a run off 25% would not be possible).

Although the idea of not allowing the current candidates may sound attractive to some, it would require us to go through a new round of campaigns which would be difficult in todays environment. If we stuck to the two candidates (who were legitimately the top two) we would not need any campaigns. We have heard enough empty promises, pipe dreams, actioned threats, horrible lies and all. What we would need before such a runoff would be a peace and reconciliation campaign organised by religious, business and academic leaders asking kenyans to accept the results. Let kenyans (not Condi or Millbrand) decide who they want to lead them for the next few years - while we set about the task of institutional reforms etc.

One other thing that would be essential for this to work. We would have to set some basic rules for all politicians to bar them for campaigning for their candidate, oblige them to accept the results after elections (or lose their seats); and punish any one that fans ethnic hatred.
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written by Stephen Wanyama , February 17, 2008
James Watt, Waweru, Vikii
The election will not be close. We retain the traditional constituency of the GEMA, the Bukusu and the smaller Kalenjin communities of the Tugen, Marakwet and the Pokot. We gain almost in entirety the Akamba and the Kisii, cut even deeper (sorry Amir) into North Eastern province and the Coast. In the end, the only people who will vote for ODM will be a few Coastals, the Rift Valley and Nyanza. Even in these regions there will be a rebellion against ugatuzi na uharibifu. So no, it will not be close.

Secondly, reforms are not going to be speedily resolved. Many of the party positions, i.e. what we want from reforms are antagonistic to what the ODM wants. Much of what they want is unaffordable and likely to depress the national economy. Waweru mentions the little matter of reviewing constituency boundaries. Now the ODM won many hearts with their anti-GEMA campaign. They have numbers in parliament superior to the government purely on this account. If we had the boundaries re-drawn Raila would have no chance of controlling parliament, and he knows that, so why would he agree to it?

Boundaries and demoracy
Re-drawing boundaries would also mean that the ODM is agreeing to a new general election. The ODM knows that many of its victories in the Rift Valley (mixed areas), in Nairobi and in Western province were only on account of the numerous Kibaki candidates on the other tickets. Their majority is therefore artificial. Given the atrocities against the Akamba and the Kisii, it is very unlikely that anyone in these places will vote any Raila affiliated party, so again he haemorrhages seats. There is no reform programme that will be easily agreed upon.

Conduct of elections
The statement about the electoral register can be sorted out by a fresh registration process, and yes, we may have to invite armed international observers to ensure there is no violence. We may have to ask Annan to stay and call out anyone who preaches ukabila or hatred, by the way Raila is still swinging at it, see Mugabe Were's funeral. Annan can even take over from Kivuitu.
In fact I would say it is much better to have elections now with the whole world's eyes on us and therefore ensure the world is sympathetic than later when we will have little help and a return to rigging ways.

IDP voting
Waweru has neglected to read in our statements that a mechanism be instituted that ensures that all IDPs, regardless of their present location be permitted the vote. They should be able to register as Molo residents for example, even if they are presently in Kisii. Our history has shown that few IDPs are ever re-settled and all signs indicate (there was I think a BBC interview with Kalenjin soldiers) that there would be a mutiny in the armed services if they were asked to enforce this resettlement. This is obviously I might add, the reason why Kibaki is not returning citizens to their homes, or going out directly against the gangs. Some of those alleged to be coordinating these attacks are actually ex-military!

You realise that whenever an opposition supporter is killed we are told serikali inamaliza ODM's supporters?

The matter of legitimacy and law-enforcement
What Amir's article argues, and what I agree with, is that all reforms, all restitution can only come if there is peace. And that peace can only come if there is someone to enforce it. Part of the reason for the uncertainty in the forces is the fact that people do not know who they owe their allegiance, few people want to be loyal to someone who could very well have stolen the election!! Remember these soldier are putting their lives on the line, and are likely going to have to kill some people, flush them out of the forest whatever. They cannot do that unless they have a legitimate executive issuing the orders, and only elections can confer that legitimacy.

Still at war
Now Raila is busy inciting people against Kikuyus, alleging that some communities, you know what that means are getting all the jobs. Why should we expect that he can work well with Kimunya and Karua who he has both previously gone physical with?

Need for speed
To iterate, we are not calling for an election as a means to the resolution of the crisis. No, that can come after the elections. We are calling for an election because that is the only way peace can be returned to Kenya. It is the only way investments can return, the IDPs can be resettled and that the poverty situation can be addressed. Will the government have enough in revenue to pay teachers? Are people tending to their farms, to their tea or coffee? Can we redeem our tourist haven status? As Amir so well puts it,

We are precluding long term investment and compelling even our neighbours to seek alternative routes for their cargo. Every single day that the Luo farm workers from Central Kenya spend in Nyanza questions the validity of the Kenyan state. Every single day that Kisumu lies in ruins entrenches the feeling of exclusion and marginalisation.


Vikii,
With all respect, what about institutions? You are very generously alleging that institutions can be built over-night. Here is one suggestion.
Let's say the ECK was empowered, to resist incitement. That it could ban Raila or Ruto or Michuki or Nyachae if they said anything nasty. What chances that could be enforced?

Next, let's suppose Kivuitu refused to call the election, saying irregularities had happened on both sides. Would the result not have been the same violence we are seeing now? I mean if Kivuitu had said that Kibaki would still be president right?

Next, the courts have undergone extensive reforms these last five years. The bench is definitely not stacked against the ODM, that is a most ridiculous assertion. What we have instead is people refusing to obey the rule of law. The facts would be laid bare in court, we, even we, even the international community could judge them. Hell, we could even get foreign judges. But no, it is not institutions, it is not any of that development studies jargon. As you have said yourself, it is primitive behaviour that must be crushed underfoot.


There is a sense here that we need a very fast solution. It is only elections that can deliver that, and yes, it matters not even if ODM wins. We need someone to put out the gangs and allow reforms to proceed in peace.
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Verdict?
written by Andrew , February 17, 2008
We still do not know the verdict of the people!!! ECK messed, deliberately or not. Did Raila win? Did Kibaki win? Being declared is not the same as winning. Did Kibaki lose? Did Raila lose? ECK does not know, we do not know, and given Kivuitu was quoted mentioning alterations going on of results, an audit will get us nowhere near the truth.

Elections now? Takes time to organise, but most likely will be handily won by ODM if held with a completely impartial elections body. Ask for Aussie help, their before 11.pm day of voting victor is known. As is usual PM/Presidential always reported first (dunno why ECK decided to do MP's first..your guess is as good as mine).

The main reason why we cannot have elections now is nobody will accept to lose. (Ask Lucy Kibaki and Martha). So we all must accept each other and have a coalition government for now as we prepare for elections. That is the logical thing.

From where I stand though I can see the constitution changing to what most Kenyans want it to. It would be in the best interests of the current occupiers of state house to have those changes because if in the next elections they lose, they would certainly want to feel the 'cloth of government' as would the victors.

With all this mediation, and all the events in question, methinks it most likely is true Kibaki did after all rig the election and that's why he remains so intransigent. He has not shown much statesmanship compared to Raila who seems to cut a better figure.

I think those who are closing their eyes to obvious and glaring historical injustices are attempting to rewrite history. Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. The lesson of history is that we do not learn from history; but at least we should attempt to be it's students. There was real anger, there was a spark, but the issues that fuelled the real anger are what Kenyan patriots will not sweep under the table but must confront head-on.
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actually Andrew
written by Stephen Wanyama , February 17, 2008
I think the government was always pretty confident that it had won. I want to remind you of two facts.

a) the PNU very early asked for a review o f the total national tally. Check out Martha Karua in this video here. Even after the announcement, and this is why the international community is not asking for Kibaki to step down, they have been showed evidence that shows Kibaki did win, but then again they also have proof that Kibaki did rig - hence the stalemate. I think even honest Raila supporters should admit, even if their man had won, that they rigged it. To resolve this, we need a fresh election, or else our emaciated skeletons will be here debating back and forth till 2012.

b) Secondly, the PNU has always begged, insisted that the evidence of the ODM be brought forward. I have not seen it to this day, have you? Macharia Gaitho wrote that Raila had promised to sambaza it to him, it is still invisible. Alfred Mutua has been asking, no such luck. Where is it?

I am glad the ODM is also happy to have an election. Let the wananchi decide on their change agenda.

Aliosema
ODM stole parliamentary seats. We can also do those ones again. We need to do those again.
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Help!!
written by Truthseeker , February 17, 2008
What is this hopeless reporter talking about? Does anyone know what grades are required to become a Kenyan reporter? Who has this guy slept with to get this job?

Can some translate?
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If wishes were horses........
written by benadede , February 17, 2008
I would wish both Raila and Kibaki keep off from the next elections.

Wanyama, I think that Raila and ODM published their "evidence" in the dailies and I think ECK gave a rebuttal. Anyway, I think the same are published in Raila's website One of the downloads does not work though. Besides, here are the ones from Kiai's group. I am not sure whether any of it is helpful or just serves to muddy the water further.

For me the tragedy is that fishy business went on at all levels but the presidential vote has hogged all the limelight. There are many MPs who lost under very fishy circumstances. I was watching the final bits of some of the MPs elections and I do not believe the process was fair. I don't think Betty Tett lost fairly to Gumo nor Kamanda(much as i loathe him) to Wanjiru. Others include Sakuda losing to Saitoti. It seemed like after the counting there was suspended, the next day, Sakuda's tally hardly increased while Saitoti's doubled. Mwakwere's win was also questionable.
As for the councillors, the poor anonymous souls. I was shocked that ECK had to de-gazzette 10 councillors and replace them with the supposed true winners. ECK is really amazing to say the least.

Finally, where does the honest media stand on this. In some of these disputed constituencies, they had representatives at the counting halls and at the subsequent announcements. In fact, before things got out of hand, they were religiously updating Kenyans only to stop short towards the end. I am surprised that they are so cowardly that they cannot confirm or dispute at least some of the results that ECK released and are in dispute. Instead, they wait to report what EU and other international observers report! Like many Kenyans, they bury their heads in the sand like the proverbial ostrich.
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Not so fast!
written by mkosakabila , February 17, 2008
I am wary of the rush to another election, and it is not impossible for mutiny to occur even under the watch of a so-called legitimate president. It is critical that there is the capacity to enforce law and order and to protect lives and property. But it is still unclear to me how any one individual winning an election in such a fractious society as we are today, with multiple allegiances, having undergone such trauma, will consolidate the loyalty of an armed force that is as fractious as the society of which it is comprised. And even if there was full control of the disciplined forces, who wants to rule by force anyway? It has been argued here in KI and in many other places that the elections were merely the trigger.

Besides, and as Waweru points out, whose preference will an election at this time reflect? A situation of fear? Who will vote and what will winning really mean without some basic reforms? Unless otherwise coerced, it is unlikely that those who have had to pay a costly price (because they exercised their voting rights) either through the loss of loved ones, of property, or in whatever other way we may know of or not, will be kwa mstari wa mbele. It wasnt the case when someone was duly elected, what would be the guarantee now. Lets not be in a hurry, Id rather we were more ambitious. At the very worst, if at all feasible, would be nice to see an opinion poll conducted to gauge where the public stands on the idea of an election at this time.

I view power sharing as a suboptimal solution, even over a specified minimal period. But it also seems to me as one way of building the necessary political capital and or consensus (across the divide) that we will need to pass through some very tough reforms. I should also hasten to add that Emilio is not Jesus of Nazareth, but a politician, and a rational one too. I find it hard to envision him presiding over the limitation of his own powers absent of an in-country structure and mechanism that will pressure him to do so. Targeted sanctions by the development community are additional and very welcome incentives. And yes, we should demand of both sides the discipline that is necessary. Much of the bickering that we saw these last few years is because society tolerated it.

A broad range of reforms have been suggested, including of the judiciary, of the electoral commission, of the structure and distribution of land holdings, of the relationship and obligations between the center and elsewhere and so on. All that is fine. With due regard to the tragedy that has befallen so many people, I personally think that we are presented with an opportunity to be creative in pushing forward our very own experiment in nation building and in democratic governance. If we put aside the label and stigma of majimbo or ugatuzi, we can look for ways of accommodating our diversity, in culture, in local governance systems, in ecology.

We can seek to constitute multiple and complementary centers of authority at different levels of governance that reflect our heterogeneity and preferences. I cannot claim to know how that would look like, but Botswana has a house of chiefs in addition to Parliament, Senegal is devolved etcetera, but the choice should be made by Wanjiku herself. Not by the international community, nor by the folk at Serena, yet we appreciate their efforts. I do not think that in solving our problems we should conform to anything. But I do think that reconstituting order in Kenya at this time carries more weight than an election result or just finding the right president. Force is undesirable too.
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...
written by Shiro , February 17, 2008
I am so glad to have discovered Kenya Imagine. Correct me if I am wrong, but I feel this is what the media should be writing!!!. I know the NGOs are just trumpeting what their masters want, in other words being house niggers...

I am so impressed by this. It has really reasured me that there's a voice. I only wish it can reach futher. I have passed on alot of the articles from here and will continue to do so. Cos the word must be sambazad...

Cheers,
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re:
written by Shiro , February 17, 2008
We should have fresh elections under UN supervision.
Peace-enforcing troops, as opposed to peace-keeping troops, should be deployed, with contingents coming from the US, the EU[excluding the UK],China and some African nations like South Africa and Egypt.
Kibaki and Raila must step aside as they are too polarizing. That is a compromise too.
The new Govt should embark on comprehensive constitutional reforms preceded by a new and impartial Census that will form the basis of creating new constituencies, and also correct the gerrymandering of the Moi years.
A new census would also help sober up a few ODM hotheads, especially in the Rift Valley.


The UN should not be anywhere near. They dont have our interest at heart and are just bellowing what the 'Masters' want them to bellow. This whole things should be thrown to impartial people, countries. But I think that if we got rid of the NGOs who are now screaming in our names, Kenyans could do a better job... Its our country.
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re: re:
written by manta ray , February 17, 2008
We should have fresh elections under UN supervision.
Peace-enforcing troops, as opposed to peace-keeping troops, should be deployed, with contingents coming from the US, the EU[excluding the UK],China and some African nations like South Africa and Egypt.
Kibaki and Raila must step aside as they are too polarizing. That is a compromise too.
The new Govt should embark on comprehensive constitutional reforms preceded by a new and impartial Census that will form the basis of creating new constituencies, and also correct the gerrymandering of the Moi years.
A new census would also help sober up a few ODM hotheads, especially in the Rift Valley.


The UN should not be anywhere near. They dont have our interest at heart and are just bellowing what the 'Masters' want them to bellow. This whole things should be thrown to impartial people, countries. But I think that if we got rid of the NGOs who are now screaming in our names, Kenyans could do a better job... Its our country.


How do you get "impartial countries" except through the UN, of which Kenya is a member? Why do you think Kofi Annan was acceptable to all sides? Who would enforce order and make sure that free and fair elections take place? The Pakistanis? The Gabonese? Please enlighten me.
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re: Help!!
written by mkosakabila , February 17, 2008
What is this hopeless reporter talking about? Does anyone know what grades are required to become a Kenyan reporter? Who has this guy slept with to get this job?


I get the impression that he has a story, which runs as follows. The talks were on schedule and were now tackling Annans third agenda item. This third item, which seeks ways to resolve the election dispute is tricky and both sides neither agree on the basics of the problem nor have acceptable suggestions on how to move forward. I also got the impression that the reporter may have been unnerved at the thought of the talks collapsing. So perhaps, just maybe, quite possibly, really, nothing sinister re how he got his job. Poor chap!
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Is re-election the answer?
written by a guest , February 17, 2008
If we had another election and the difference this time was, say, 40,000 votes, do you think this would now be acceptable to the loser? Keep in mind that this 40,000 difference, assuming there are 8 million votes cast, is 0.5% of total votes cast. In my opinion, even if we called in the UN, the US and god forbid the UK to supervise the election and posted oservers in each and every polling station, an arguement can still be made by the loser that he did not actually lose, and a recount, depending on the something as simple as what is considered a spoilt vote or not, may swing the vote to one or the other party's favor. Case in point is the US Bush/Gore Florida election, which, after an analysis and recount of the votes (long after Gore had conceeded defeat and Bush was president-elect), it became apparent that depending on the standards that were used in a recount, either candidate could have been declared winner.

The vote counting is done by human beings, as such, there is an element of human error and differences in judgement (as to what constitutes a spoilt vote, etc) that go into vote counting. And this is assuming that every other aspect of the voting is perfect. Kenya's 2007 election voting process was far from perfect. While most focus has been on presidential vote tallying, there were reports and video tape evidence of candidates causing chaos in polling stations after realising that they were losing, security officers beating and clearing out the polling stations after candidates became unrully, individuals being attacked and murdered even before the actual voting started on "suspicion" that they were polling agents for opposing parties, party agent intimidation in the opposing party's stronghold areas, women being prevented from reaching the polling stations to vote because it was believed large numbers of them supported "enemy" parties and all other manner of nonsense.

My point is, even in the best organized elections, there is a margin of error to begin with, just like there is in the opinion polls. The higher the number of votes cast, the bigger the margin of error becomes. Similarly, as more irregularities occur, the margin of error increases. Given all the nonsense that goes on in the Kenyan elections, I'm willing to bet that the margin of error could be as much as say 4% (my guess)of total votes cast. As such, when you have the difference in presidential votes falling within this margin, it is impossible to accurately tell who won the election.

Are we therefore willing to conduct another election only for us to end up where we are today again?

My opinion is that our answer lies in crafting a government that does not leave sections of communities feeling left out (I don't know how this can be achieved), and discouraging ethnic based campaigning.
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And Discouraging Ethnic Based
written by Nyabs , February 17, 2008
@Anonymous

My opinion is that our answer lies in crafting a government that does not leave sections of communities feeling left out (I don't know how this can be achieved), and discouraging ethnic based campaigning.


I am inclined to change my mind on re-elections. It might not be a good idea at this point in time (sorry Amir).

Recent events and utterances by Raila Odinga clearly indicate that any attempts to hold elections will just inflame ethnic animosities. Sample what Raila had to say at the burial of were as reported by the Nation here: http://www.nationmedia.com/dai...id=116982.

I quote: "Mr Odinga said that the skewed job allocations in the country would not be tolerated in highly charged period, claiming that there was a plot to allocate jobs to certain ethnic groups at the expense of others, citing the police force was one of the targets". With such utterances, elections could just sink us into deeper chaos and trouble.

Don't you think it is time we criminalized such talk? It makes me sick in the stomach, especially coming on the heels of killings and displacement of certain ethnic groups, which can be largely be traced back to similar statements made during the campaign report.

Maybe a broad based government, excluding thieves and murderers, coupled with policy and constitutional reforms that would radically change the Kenyan political landscape may be the way to go for the next five years.
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You make me laugh.
written by andy , February 18, 2008
kenya is still where it is today because of Most of you. you still blame one another forgetting that if this country burns you all lose. this is the same reason why so many kenyas are displaced. many of you cannot just forget you political affiliations and for once think about kenya. Kenya is bigger than Kibaki, Raila, Ruto Martha, and all those goons. we forget that this are the very people that allowed kenyans to die in North eastern in 2005 while they where increasing their salaries. how can you keep on defending them. we forget that they are the same people who have allowed this wonderful country to go this road its in there watch. so please before you blame. anyone ask yourself are you as self seeking as this leaders. before you think which party to affiliate yourself with know that they all smile when they are together and you kill you long time best friend.
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re: You make me laugh.
written by Johnny B. Goode , February 18, 2008
kenya is still where it is today because of Most of you. you still blame one another forgetting that if this country burns you all lose. this is the same reason why so many kenyas are displaced. many of you cannot just forget you political affiliations and for once think about kenya. Kenya is bigger than Kibaki, Raila, Ruto Martha, and all those goons. we forget that this are the very people that allowed kenyans to die in North eastern in 2005 while they where increasing their salaries. how can you keep on defending them. we forget that they are the same people who have allowed this wonderful country to go this road its in there watch. so please before you blame. anyone ask yourself are you as self seeking as this leaders. before you think which party to affiliate yourself with know that they all smile when they are together and you kill you long time best friend.


When you create a system of governance without politicians, please let me know. I'll be the first to join you. I"ll be the first to join in the chorus of stopping blame games. It's all good to act high and mighty without offering any tangible way of resolving the issue at hand which are political, political, political. That's why folks are dying and are displaced. Because of politicians. Even if you choose to ignore them they'll still incite to murder, loot, destroy and displace. With the huge sums of money at their disposal, they'll easily raise an army to destroy foe friend and neutrals. There's no sitting on the fence on this, so let the blame games continue. Lets continue to offer views for strengthening the system, so that it functions better. You sort of remind me of pacifists, those pure souls that don't believe in wars yet history as far as one can see and for as long as human association has been, is filled with bloody wars. Civilizations trying to dominate/destroy cvilizations.
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very funny
written by mkosakabila , February 18, 2008
[Replying to Andy:] You sort of remind me of pacifists, those pure souls that don't believe in wars.


Pacifists.
They also made their mark.
Sadly, war mongers are celebrated more.
Very stupid.
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re: very funny
written by Johnny B. Goode , February 18, 2008
Pacifists.
They also made their mark.
Sadly, war mongers are celebrated more.
Very stupid.


Maybe, but human hearts have always been treacherous, human dealings full of deception and greed. Wars will be here to stay, especially because they make a lot of money for the merchants of death. History does not lie about what the future holds.
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JohnnybGoode
written by mkosakabila , February 18, 2008
Sure, history may not lie. About the past. Especially if winners and losers both write it.
The future is fifty fifty. You dont have to be captured, a victim.
I agree, war is perhaps one of the most profitable business around.
I recall, with such fondness, the gun that Alexander displayed on KI several weeks ago. A beauty, very profitable, huh? Where do these things come from? Right now we have all the powers that be on this earth proposing all manner of rearrangements of Kenyas formal political system. Are there side deals going on, just in case? Remember....human dealings are full of deception and greed!
Theres so much language re war on this KI today. War mongers all of you! However subtle.
And now a short test for all war mongering types. Please fill in the blanks in the following sentences.
1. War in Sudan lasted for dash years, having killed dash number of people.
2. War in Liberia lasted for dash years, having killed dash numbers of people.
3. War in Uganda lasted dash number of years, having killed dash number of people.
4. War in Somalia...please finish the sentence.
Such profit!
And editors, I dont like it when you edit off punctuation marks.
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