Kenyans are soon going to have to recognize that
Somalis, despite their faults, are our brothers - as neighbours and Africans.
When your neighbour's house is on fire it is in your best interest to help put
that fire out lest your own house be scorched by the same. It is important to
note that anything that affects the country of Somalia
negatively will have an adverse effect on Kenya, directly or indirectly.
For the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to take control of
Moqadishu and Somalia,
it has to recognize its own faults and failures as well as the
successes of the
Union of Islamic Courts(UIC). The UIC succeeded mostly because it
started as a grassroots movement,
recruiting one Somali at a time. It wasn't just supported by community
leaders
but the community itself and over time established credibility. On the
other
hand, the TFG is generally viewed (rightly or wrongly) as a weak,
Ethiopian
friendly (a bitter point to most Somalis), American sanctioned, imposed
government - lacking the support of a majority of Somalis. While this
may
seem like an insurmountable list of problems for a Somali government,
what the
UIC had established may actually work in their favor. Somalis in
Moqadishu (and
the Diaspora) have had a taste of peace and relative stability in their
troubled homeland. They know now that peace is indeed possible - and
may be
willing to give the TFG a tentative shot at healing the world's
foremost failed state. But in a city of 2 million people and an
estimated 1 million weapons
- force alone will give the TFG the authority it desperately needs.
Experts with knowledge of the
Somali conflict are of the school of thought that even if the TFG is able to
solidify its support and have some control over the country, it's only a matter
of time before the Islamist mount an insurgency that may well still have a lot
of support in Moqadishu (not to mention funding and arms from Eritrea, Egypt,
Yemen and Saudi Arabia). The best way to avoid what appears to an impending
accession to war would be to incorporate all the parties involved in the
conflict within the government. The TFG should offer the remaining elements of
the UIC a chance to join them and form a legitimate government that will have
international recognition and may at least have the semblance of being mandated
by the people. Like George Washington said "There's nothing so likely to
produce peace as to be well prepared to meet the enemy".
While I understand the
necessity of using force, especially in retaliation or even a pre-emptive strike
against extremists and terrorists, the war against these foes is not a
conventional one and cannot be won conventionally. When Bush talked about
winning the hearts and the minds of the people, he had the right rhetoric, but
had no real plan or even idea of how to go about doing this. If you kill a
terrorist with two sons, instead of lessening the number of terrorists by one,
you have inadvertently increased it by two. While there are more radical,
armed elements that cannot be rehabilitated, most of these
"extremists" are people who have families with the same needs, wants
and desires as the rest of us - life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. We
have to understand where the hate comes from and change it otherwise the War on Terror is doomed to perpetuity.
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