Earlier this year, when the Steadman polls placed Raila
Odinga's ratings at a mere 12%, against President Kibaki's 45%, and Kalonzo
Musyoka's 20%, the pollsters came in for a bashing from Raila's backers.
They were they said, alert to the bare-faced effort at boosting
the President's chances at the polls, making him look like he has an
unassailable lead. The ODM-K party and its supporters promptly pronounced
George Waititu and Tom Wolfe as frauds, government agents hired to kill off the
oppositions chances.
Neither did it go unnoticed that Mwingi South MP Musyoka had a higher rating
than did his Langata counterpart Raila Odinga. This we surmised was part of the
scheme to foment discontent and open cracks in the solid ODM-K fraternity, as
the polls reflected a view dissonant with the reality in ODM circles.
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Kalonzo's supporters in a show of unity spoke with a voice consonant with that
of their counterparts in the opposition movement, joining Raila's supporters in
discounting the rectitude of Steadman. It was the widespread belief then that
the organization was a government front, working to garble the mood on the
ground by amplifying the President's popularity.
Still, deep in their hearts of hearts, Kalonzo's supporters had their
calculators out, crunching the numbers and building plans on the basis of
Kalonzo's 20% reserve. Extrapolated, these figures were a harbinger to a
General Election face-off with President Kibaki and Raila Odinga was suddenly
the bad man, the obstacle on the path to Kalonzo's date with destiny.
The President's faction on the other hand heralded the poll results as a true
reflection of his popularity, and an endorsement of the economic progress made
under his government. Those discrediting the figures were described as
passionate and unrealistic fanatics of the Langata MP's, out of touch with
reality and ignorant on the workings of opinion polls.
Six months down the line, the good men at Steadman now place Raila at a
colossal 53%, sixteen points ahead of Kibaki's 37% and above Musyoka's 8%. These results now seem to be received with
much greater approval in ODM circles, the difference in the two figures a
declaration of the success the party has achieved in seeking to promulgate its
promise. At the same time however, the Kalonzo team and the President's backers
are seeking to dismiss the latest opinion polls, labeling them fabrications, that
do not portray the true picture of the political developments in the country.
So what to make of these polls and what really are Steadman up to? Who pays
them, and who do they earn this pay? These are but a few of the questions relating
to the riddle of the pollsters, and the efficacy of their methods. The vacillations
are certainly out of step with global trends, and Kenya
is either an exception to global rules, or something else is at play.
The first and perhaps most readily advanced answer is simply a natural and stubborn
inclination by political factions to see only the reality that they desire.
Loyal supporters will therefore resist any attempt at portrayal of their
candidate of choice as trailing or having fallen behind their competition. Following
this thread, the reasoning is that parties will validate the results whenever
their respective candidates are rated highly, but treacherously disown the very
same pollsters under when the ratings dip.
The second idea, mostly from supporters of the ODM candidate is that Steadman
was previously shoddy, disorganized and even biased in its polling. Pressure
from the public and from the Odinga led party however, woke the pollsters up to
the reality, and they quickly saw that it would be dangerous to their continued
relevance if they posted figures that were clearly not reflective of the mood
on the ground.
The third idea, related to the second posits that the public should maintain
its distrust of the Steadman group, as it is a partisan advocacy group working
in the interests of the Kibaki re-election campaign, by providing push-polls to
its benefit. As evidence, it suggests that the ODM leader's ratings did jump
after the mammoth KICC launch but that his figures were never as low as
portrayed to begin with. To this group, Steadman is culpable for creating a
mythical perception that a Kalonzo Presidency was a possible reality, what
perception placed a stumbling block on Raila's path to becoming the ODM-K
nominee.
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miracle man?
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This version of events then sees Steadman continue in their dirty work, by portraying
President Kibaki as having built an insurmountable lead over his competition.
This tactic accounts for the massive 45% Kibaki enjoyed over Kalonzo's 20% and
Raila's 12%. So suddenly, the public is seen to have woken up to the government's
potent economic credentials as attested to by his improved approval ratings. These
impressive figures would also play the auxiliary role of creating a solid
magnet that would attract political alliances from left right and center,
thereby making it virtually impossible for any opposition traction to be built.
Our fickle politicians, backing as they always do the winning horse, would be
attracted to the president's team, persuaded by the polls that his win was a
foregone conclusion.
According to this theory, the Waititu outfit, now acknowledging their prior
miscalculations, has finally reverted to one last "bait and switch" move. This has
them show Raila's true numbers (53%) to
the public, a move that serves to tranquilize
an electorate that still distrusts Steadman and then, with elections drawing ever closer, to bank
on this trust to raise President Kibaki's numbers steadily while pushing those
of Raila to a nose dive. Hypnotized and confused by Steadman's previous
friendliness to Raila, the public will not see the trick and will then cast
their votes based on a perceived change of attitude towards a Kibaki presidency.
The fourth and most ugly alternative explanation is that the pollsters are part
of a colossal fraud that is preparing Kenyans for a rigged election. It follows
the exact same trail as the third explanation except that Steadman's motive would
be to set a poll rating for the President, somewhere in the region of what
would work to validate rigged polls. The final numbers are therefore, unlike in
the previous scenario, not intended to persuade voters, but instead to
corroborate the rigged numbers at the actual elections.
We are it is true new to the concept of public polling, but the wild swings in
the polls are a reason for extra vigilance. It remains to be seen exactly what
sort of ride Kenyans are being taken for.
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It is after all, ILLEGAL, to post fraudulent opinion polls. Here's a link to that law.