With all the drama
already unfolding in the 2007 election campaigns, Kenyans are still diverting a lot of attention to that
other election just less than two years away.
The 2008 American
presidential elections,that is.
The picture has changed
somewhat since late 2006, but generally there have not been any major
surprises. Among the Democrats, an AP-AOL January poll showed Hillary
Clinton in the lead with 38%; followed by Obama with 21%, then Al Gore
with 14% and John Edwards with 10%. The rest are in the single digits
and not considered serious challengers.
Obama's
gain on Hillary has come primarily from blacks and young voters. In his
nationwide campaign, thousands of young people have attended his
rallies - rallies that have drawn far larger crowds than any of the
other presidential contenders in either party -a fact that shows his
growing pull on the youth. He has also made much headway among blacks, with
the latest polls showing an almost even split with the New York Senator but
almost no support whatsoever for other Democrats. With regard to this, it is important to point out that it is very difficult to effectively poll blacks who constitute 12% of the American population.
The Democratic Field
John Edwards has
fashioned himself as a populist, one who is for the people and against
large corporations that are fixated on the bottom line. His populism is
class-based and targets those in the lower classes, urging them to rise
up against those at the top. No president has won with a populist
message since Jimmy Carter did in 1976. When on the campaign trail then, he stayed in people's homes and even carried his own luggage. For Edwards,
this message is perceived as contradictory after he recently bought a
28,000 square foot home worth around $4,000,000 that includes a
recreation building with basketball and squash courts and swimming
pool. With an estimated net fortune of between $12 million and $60
million, it will be very hard for Edwards to sell his message. Most of
his support comes from voters he won over in 2004 and he will not attract
too many new ones.
Al Gore's standing has dramatically risen in the polls after the release of his documentary "An Inconvenient Truth".
There are several web-based grassroots movements that have raised tens
of thousands in signatures to persuade Al Gore to run and these movements continue to
grow. However, Gore has said that he has no plans or
intention to seek office. On the other hand, he has not completely
ruled out that he will run. So his declination much must be seen in much the same way as Obama's, who had earlier
declared that he had no intention of running.
Hillary
Clinton, the current front runner, is in a difficult situation. The
problem is that she has been in the public eye almost for two
decades now and that the electorate has firm opinions on her. To put it
simply, she has all the support she is going to get unless the other
candidates self-destruct or the public's perception of them changes. She
has been steadily losing support as the campaign has progressed and is
starting to show a little frustration, particularly with Obama. She has
found it difficult to attack Obama without looking like she is reneging
on her pledge to run a clean campaign. Also, after the Selma incident
where she followed Obama to Alabama for the Bloody Sunday
commemoration, her image has taken a hit, as she appears to be chasing after
Obama.
New Poll
An interesting
phenomenon has been that among those polled who support a different
candidate, their second option has invariably been Obama. In a national
poll conducted by the American Research Group on March 8th
among Democrats who will definitely vote if the primaries were held
today, the margin between Hillary and Obama virtually evaporates.
Hillary edges out Obama at 34% to 31%, with Edwards at 15% and 14%
undecided. We see that Obama absorbs almost all of Gore's support to
pull into a statistical dead heat with Hillary. If Gore does not run,
it will only help Obama.
The problem with past
black presidential candidates is that the widespread perception of them failed to embrace the whole country and they were seen to focus purely on the championing the 'black agenda'. This scared a lot of
white Democrats who could not relate to most of the issues that these
candidates held dearest. Most of these candidates had also
made several controversial statements which made them appear radical.
Obama on the other hand embraces his mixed heritage with a pride that
has never before been seen in American politics... it is new and
exciting and paints him as one who might be able to ease some of the
racial tensions that have historically existed in American society.
Obama vs. Republicans
Republicans do not want
to face Obama in 2008 and would rather engage Hillary Clinton. They
acknowledge that Obama would be a formidable opponent, with his
inspiring speeches and his apparent knack at handling tough questions
without appearing too pre-scripted. With Obama, Republicans would lack
material for their negative ads, their most efficient strategy, and
would not be able to get away with many ad hominem attacks on Obama
without looking like chauvinistic racists. On the other hand they have
tons of ammunition on Hillary and would love for her to be the
Democratic candidate. As
a leading Republican strategist says, "I can't think of anyone who
would rally conservatives more than Hillary Clinton. She would give the
Republican nominee a jump on energizing the base."
In 2004, although the
Democratic base was fired up, the eventual democratic candidate John
Kerry failed to win the presidency. One of the main reasons is that
Kerry did not inspire new voter turnout especially among the blacks and
Hispanic voters, while the Republican grassroots movement spurred
thousand of new voters just as it did in 2000. The Democratic base was
very active but it was more inspired more by opposition to Bush than
by loyalty to Kerry. With either Clinton or Obama as the eventual candidate, look
for thousands of new Black, Hispanic and young democratic voters to
boost the Democrats to the White House.
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