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written by Stephen Wanyama , January 17, 2007

Nice effort, but these results will only reflect the final outcome if the situation remains the same as respondents assume it will be.

While there is sure going to be true excitement among the Bukusu if Mukhisa Kituyi runs with Kibaki, I am not sure he has either the national gravitas or even name recognition to be of much use to the Kibaki ticket. If Kalonzo if mistreated by the ODM-K crowd as the LDP goons seem keen to do, it is likely that he and his fans will migrate to Kibaki's fold. I am sure Raila is well aware of this which is why he himself tries to stay above the fray.

That said, I believe Kalonzo and the NDP crowd are so far apart that their parting is merely a matter of Kalonzo extracting the maximum public sympathy out of this situation.

Great Polls these
written by Amina , January 17, 2007

I am not very political, however, I can say that only time will tell. A lot of us are not sure about who we are going to vote for. Kibaki has been a big relief from Moi, and Odinga seems to be saying the right thing--he is very much a person of the people, and this might get him the votes.

Good idea
written by Dave Nyambati , January 17, 2007

If ODM remains united as they are, then the canditate they field will most likely beat the Kibaki team. I would preffer a Kalonzo presidency to Raila but if (for whatever reason) Kalonzo doesn't get the ODM nomination, he should stay in ODM on principal and not shift camp purely for power.

Kalonzo
written by emmo opoti , January 17, 2007

I don't understand what would be wrong with Kalonzo leaving ODm-K, they treat him so shabbily and it is so obviously a club for ex-NDP types( look at how Kamotho and Musila are countermanded by Raila). Why should a politician stick around to be bullied by his enemies?

I am also not convinced that Kibaki will run with Mukhisa Kituyi, it will not earn him anything that a vigorous campaign and some cash will not buy in Bungoma. Ngilu or Kalonzo would be much better options, greater national name recognition and a bigger following.

Kalonzo
written by Amir Ibrahim , January 17, 2007

Kibaki could really pull the rug from under the ODM feet by taking either Ngilu or Kalonzo, that would collapse ODM in a single blow. However, given the age of the old man, his handlers may want safer hands, hence the Mukhisa Kituyi bent. His weakness is actually his strength here. Notice that exactly because he cannot win an election, he is a good VP, just like the Late Wamalwa, or Moody Awori.

Ngilu or Kalonzo on the other hand could pull a Moi after the Mzee's demise, and the reign of the club would be at an end.
All the same, I am sure the ODM-nominations will throw up a few surprises. Uhuru and Ruto have massive constituencies, and unless they are both in a deal to crown Raila, the chariot could yet get stuck in the mud.

Still Raila has the raw muscle ( notice the attacks on Kalonzo) to brow-beat his way past all of them and to the party nomination. In the re-alignments that follow, Kibaki can, depending on his options still pull an October susrprise.

Looking at your other poll here, Kenyans seem to give Kibaki high marks on his development record. This fact and the inertia of incumbency give him a head-start over whichever ODM-K candidate wins the nomination.

polls
written by Doris Sadera , January 18, 2007

It's a good idea but it is severely limited in scope. I suppose it would be beneficial to know what the people coming to Kenya Imagine feel.

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written by Masaa , January 18, 2007

i think Kibbz still has a lot of support at home to take the presidency again and frankly, depending on what the rest of the guys have to offer, I better stick with the devil I know.The ODM guys are just glory hunters.Seems like their main job is just to oppose no matter what.
Ruto........ a joke.better not vote
Raila........vote him at your own peril.Too militant and may end up polarising the country.
I doubt Kalonzo has any leadership qualities but he is the lesser evil.
A Kibaki /Kituyi candidacy looks to be the better option.If not, let Kalonzo be the president.
My two cents

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written by Vitalis Oyudo , January 19, 2007

Masaa, very charitable of you to concede that Kibaki is a devil.
I keep hearing these charges about glory hunters, power-seekrs, etc in ODM,is there anyone in politics who is not hunting for glory, or seeking power? Do you have any links to articles showing these things the ODM people have been opposing no matter what?

You claim that Raila will end up polarising the country, what has Kibaki been doing these past three years? Do ODM rallies look polarised to you? Was the referendum, the event that brought ODM into existence polarised?

Try saying the real reason why you support Kibaki, it would be more honourable than these lies.

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written by Kamale , January 19, 2007

I actually think that the pairings may not just be correct hence the polling could be flawed.

Here is why I think so.

I am convinced that it is highly unlikel that there will ever be a Raila/Kalonzo candidacy simply because there is too much mistrust between the two gentlemen. I even understand that Raila would definitely have a problem trusting Kalonzo with any deal.

So what are Kalonzos chances? As it appears he is highly unlikely to get a nod from ODM-K and if you consider that Raila appears to be working very hard to lure Ruto to his corner, Kalonzo is headed out of ODM. His main achilles hill is that whilst he has an appeal amongst non-kambas, he can only hope for their support if he is the presidential candidate.

It then appears that he can exercise the option to run for presidency using the LDM/ROAP parties that alleged to be his alternative B and lose the election as he has no hope of winning the election in a splintered opposition.

The alternative (and it is rumoured he has spoken to a few people about it) is to troop back to Kibaki and seek to be his running mate. The problem with this proposition is that he has bad-mouthed Kibaki quite a bit and there are people in the Kibaki corner who would like to see him roast.

What is clear is that if Kalonzo is not a candidate in 2007, he can kiss his chances of ever leading Kenya goodbye!

What about his other ODM colleagues?

It has been suggested that Raila despite the elaborate planning and campaigning realises that his nomination would not lead to his election as president of Kenya especially in a race against Kibaki. There are many things that go against him despite the alleged popularity he is supposed to command.

Under the circumstances, I think that Raila wants to negotiate passing on the presidency to someone else whilst he wields a lot of power. If this be the case, then his most likely candidate has to be one with no guts and is desperate like Mudavadi. If Mudavadi was a presidential candidate, then he can get overwhelming support from the luhya community. With Mudavadai at the helm, Raila can offer Ruto the vice presidency with the prime minister's slot reserved for him. In this arithmetic, Ruto will be in a position to claim that he can bring 26 kalenjin MPs to the fold to deserve this post.

To the strategists thinking of this plot, it is expected that the total votes garnered by this team would force a run-off againt Kibaki and they have then the opportunity of winning by making the run-off an us versus the kikuyu campaign!

So how does Kibaki counter this?

As the western vote is taken if Mudavadi was the presidential candidate, then it is unlikely that Mukisa would be Kibaki's running mate. Kibaki would perhaps go for a hard working minister like Kipruto Kirwa for his running mate to neutralise the Ruto campaign in Rift Valley with the hope that Moi would add his support for Kirwa against Ruto. The fact that Kirwa is youthful may even appeal to other people!

There are very many permutations being bandied about and it is going to start coming out clearly in the next couple of months.

So hold on to the polls just yet!!!

Kamale\'s work
written by emmo , January 19, 2007

I am thinking the same thing, about Kalonzo, which is why we also have a Kalonzo Kibaki ticket.

I will comment one by one on your scenarios.
First off, does anyone at all trust Raila? I am not convinced there are such people out there, not even within the old NDP crowd. He could cross himself given half a chance. Kalonzo's chances in ODM are doomed by the fact that there will be a delegates conference at all. Without a popular vote, he cannot hope to compete for sheer brute force and campaign skill with Raila and his gang. I am not persudaded either that Kibaki-Kituyi is a serious ticket. Even if Mukhia Kituyi were to run himself, even if Musalia were to run the Luhya vote would still be split. That there is anyone who can deliver either this bloc or the Rift Valley whole sale is a brazen lie, but Kibaki would be far better served going with Kalonzo or Ngilu to neuter the Rest vs. Kikuyu vibe.

Kirwa has not had the same vibe among the Kalenjin, even within the Nandi that Ruto has had. I do not think he is even a serious option.

The question I need to ask you, presumably a Kibaki man. What are your contngencies? You cannot have a DP man in the number two slot, but surely you realise that Kibaki is old and frail, anything could happen. That either Kibaki's backers or Raila should think that there are patsies in Kenyan politics who can stand for seats and then later voluntarily give the power away is plain silly. What is the Narc-K plan?

We do have the Raila Odinga/ William Ruto permutation, as well as the Mwai Kibaki/ Kalonzo Musyoka and Mwai Kibaki/ Charity Ngilu ones.

...
written by Kamale , January 19, 2007

Emmo,

I honestly wish I was in the Narc or even DP loop. I do speak alot to people in the know of what is likely to happen though I sometimes think they are in the dark as much as most of the other Kenyans. Kibaki is surely keeping a lot of things to his chest, but he is certain to run in 2007.

Of course Kalanzo would add some gravitas to the Kibaki ticket and also put Kalonzo in good stead for 2012 when Kibaki will not be running. The big Q is whether Kalonzo can see this and run early enough before he spoils his chances further.

We can safely exclude Saitoti from any ticket in 2007 as running mate so there is no one from DP in the Kibaki ticket.

Kirwa can be packaged to be a viable candidate and in the process be used as bait for the Kalenjin vote as Kibaki will be showing that he has not problems with the 'kalenjin' and is happy to work with younger politicians! Would a Kalenjin president in 2012 cause the kalenjin to vote Kirwa in 2012? May be! If you added Moi in the loop telling people that Kirwa and Kibaki are actually good people and considering that the Nandis have perhaps been the biggest beneficiaries of a Kibaki presidency especially in the agricultural sector, I am think it is a probable ticket later this year (could this be the reason Kirwa is not campaining for any of the mainstream party seats?).

Kirwa
written by emmo , January 19, 2007

But come on is Kirwa really big enough? Why do people keep mentioning people like Kirwa and Kituyi, they are not national figures, not even household names within their region.

I am really surprised that the DP club has not found a successor to Kibaki yet!! Saitoti not running is ok, but ought he not to be positioned some place from where he can go up on to the national stage. Let's just take the Trans-Century Group for an example. Unless a DP man with big enough balls is in place to take over from Kibaki, you may very well have the next president reversing all these 'gains', as Raila is threatening to do.

New Kings, especially when they are 'made' need to consolidate their power, often by acts of ruthlessness.

...
written by Kamale , January 22, 2007

Emmo,

The issue is what is a VP? Was Awori that big when he was appointed?

As for a luhyia running mate for Kibaki, this was summed up for me by some luhyia friends I was having a drink with. They have had 3 vice presidents so the only logical position is the president which is what Musalia is looking for and if Raila can let go on his behalf!!

Kalonzo in Kibaki\'s court?
written by pndiangui , January 29, 2007

Kalonzo coming into Kibaki's fold at this moment in time , is a hard one to crack. But you never know with kenyan politicians with their well versed double-speak.
Kamale I however agree with your analysis on various scenarios.

Kibaki got this one!
written by kenyaonly , February 09, 2007

Am not a big Kibaki supporter neither am i an ODM supporter for i feel ODM is just a union of dissatisfied politicians who are power hungry and are trying to get to the big house and once they get there we will see their true colors. Someone like Raila is just a hype man, Kalonzo has capability and leadership qualities that i dont think will be able to achieve them if he continues to hang out with ODM crew, Uhuru is just a project and the owner disowned it just like he did the Nyayo Pioneer, Musalia, good guy but in wrong affiliation, seems like people forgot he was a VP. Ruto, the main guy to watch in ODM but dont think can win presidency so that leaves Kibaki-Kalonzo Ticket...oooooh and now saitoti, great guy but dont know how he will be able to hide his goldberg scandal

FORD
written by N.Ekesah , September 28, 2007

Why mention A Mukhisa Kitui at this level. We people from his backyard no longer see him as represented here-in. Talk of Musalia, Kombo, Moody or even Jirongo but not him. Your other matches though reflect a true picture of the forthcoming election scenario.