Mwai Kibaki is not a bad man; he is no more corrupt than Raila Odinga. He is no more a tribalist than our first President Kenyatta ever was, and neither is he a violent man. By all accounts he is a God-fearing, kindly family man with an excellent educational background and a long career in politics. What he is not by a long shot is a leader, and for all those Kenyans who are opposed to a Raila Odinga presidency, nothing could be more disheartening.

stand to lose

When the President and his cohort contrived to lose the 2005 constitutional referendum, it was obvious that in a country filled with people who were blissfully ignorant of what their votes entailed; a little effort from the President's side would have changed the result. Indeed, it was clear both from the results and the euphoria preceding it that more than a referendum, the vote contest was more like a confidence vote.

Arrogant and aloof, sneering and soporific; Mwai Kibaki's Banana Team was as indolent and incompetent a congregation of politicians as have walked a campaign trail in all history. That the Kitchen cabinet saw this as a virtue and that its officers and their parrots in the national media congratulated themslves for this attitude has played the largest part in the creation of our present desperate situation.

But that is not all. When a rag-tag band like ODM, following a much maligned leader manages not just to catch up with the government's side, but to make inroads into its innermost political constituency; some serious introspection is needed. But such must be the luxuries of youth, for the band of brothers ensconced atop Kenya's government has scant regard for such panicky action. Instead it self-confidently strides towards its defeat, pausing every now and then to execute acts of such low voltage imagination; it is best described as self-sabotage. The creation of the rickety PANU, the handling of Charity Ngilu, the betrothal to Moi and Biwott, the doggedly unfriendly stance towards the media and the renunciation of the political platform for ODM's domination will be moments pondered over by tortured Kibaki supporters during the long and cold political night that they will have to endure.

vote repellent?

For all the accusations of using the provincial administration and the instruments of power to battle this election, the government's failure to attempt an accommodation of the boisterous city masses will prove a regrettable decision, especially as this constituency can be amplified to give the impression of vast numbers, a technique ODM have managed to carry out to near perfection. Even worse, completely misreading the national consciousness, the president has sought to ally himself with the oldest and most despised individuals in the land, a fact which has given his opponents an easy time in casting his government as not only too old to function, but most importantly as a carry-over from the oppressive days of the Kenyatta and Moi governments. That among the septuagenarians in his government are individuals who seem eager to prove to the nation just how violent and intolerant they can be cannot be a voter-friendly strategy in any but the most obtuse minds. Even less clever, was the incredibly insensitive announcement of a million-shilling per plate fund-raising party. No greater symbol for the contempt in which the ruling party holds its citizens is imaginable, but this is Kibaki's government, and it has good form in keeping away from the mwananchi's pulse. After all, it gloats about a near invisible economic growth, while the poorest Kenyans overtaken by a most painful multiplication in the prices of the most basic consumer products.

failure to launch

But worst of all is the point we started out with, the total abdication of the throne by Emilio Mwai Kibaki. Every last problem I have laid out here would have been very easily surmounted by the prestige and gravitas of the presidency. He has had at his disposal, the untrammeled goodwill of a nation in catharsis, the political support of all Kenya's ethnic groups and the nation's forgiveness for his complicity in the crimes of the past governments. More than that, he is in office during a period of global economic expansion, and the boons of the change of government in 2002 have brought him international acclaim and a renewed national pride.

The fates have also woven into Kibaki's yarn the opportunity to form a cross-party government of national unity, drawing on allies from across the country to augment the passionate support he can rely on from the Central Kenya region. Destiny has gifted him an opposition led by a demagogue with a questionable history and a fanatical tribal following that terrifies many across the country. Famed for his perfidy and the fickle nature of his word, his main opponent is also feared by the business classes, and has recently made enemies that he should properly be regretting for all his days. Loud, brash, polarising and cunning; he would have provided the perfect foil for a calm, unifying and down to earth presidency.

Such are the blessings of Kibaki. So bountiful that one would expect the President to have the election in the bag. Instead, recent reports indicate that it is Kibaki who is running scared; it is his posse that is paralyzed by internal wrangling; rudderless, headless and with nary a mooring.

While the government without a name basks in its facile superiority, ODM rolls across the nation, making the President's allies look tired, apathetic to the battle, unsympathetic to the poor and the hungry, and oppressive to their dreams. This, the enormous chasm in collective charisma and political acumen will hobble the Kibaki government until election day when it can finally slither away into the darkness, leaving behind an orphaned nation that is a much harder place to live or conduct business. Mwai Kibaki has already given us a polarized republic, with his last days in office; his hands-off attitude may very well land us in a tyranny with a President enjoying the support of nearly every non-GEMA Kenyan.

At the last inauguration ceremony, angry wananchi opposed to Moi pelted his convoy with mud and rocks, Mwai Kibaki may very well find himself being pelted by his most ardent supporters.