Numbers matter
written by pndiangui , September 16, 2007

Looking at these numbers one cant fail to start sensing that both Kibaki and Raila go into the elections with a good start of votes eminating from their tribal chiefdoms. As is other elections in the country ukabila will play a major factor in the upcoming general elections. Intrestingly though from the regional voting blocks point of view Musyoka commands a large voting block that ODM might have wanted to wish-away when he parted away with them.

The other factor is the entry of Moi into the Rift-valley vote hunting fray , doing so to support Kibaki's itenary. ODM has again put this as inconsequential but the fact that Moi will be even propping up candidates against those who support ODM , is a major score for Kibaki. That ODM will spend more time and resources in a region they could have taken for granted from the referendum results cannot be wished away by the Orange group. They'll have to contend with the Kanu grassroot machinery and especially in Baringo, Koibatek, Pokot etc .

For those in Orange who might still be harbouring the 2005 Referendum victory nostalgi they need to be reminded of the changing voting dynamics; In magharini for example , the draft constitution was voted out by and large (85% voted against the draft humiliating the Banana group terribly) but on a return this year the Orange party was trounced by a Kibaki-backed candidate.

However looking at the data in Western Kenya. Orange might continue holding sway in this vote-rich region and especially if Mudavadi is seen as a better asset ot invest in than the Kibaki-allied and older Awori. If this happens , then the Kibaki team faces a very tough battle in the total tally of votes bearing in mind that the Ukambani votes are under lock and key with Kalonzo running. With the referendum results being available, regional voter-apathy statistics and the numerous opinion polls being done by the likes of steadman we might start doing some predictive modelling at KI to offer more insights on what lies ahead for Kenyans. We encourage Opinions to enrich every reader's insights.

Free and Fair
written by Richard , September 16, 2007

People of the Rift valley made up their minds a while ago, Moi is of no consequence, unless he intends to sponsor and rig the elections in the North Rift. Kibaki can still pull in large number of votes in this region, if he crafts his campaign well, it is the one part of the country that has benefited from his government. The ODM have support in some of the densely populated areas of Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu. The rest of the country is open to competitive politics, excluding Luo- Nyanza and Kikuyu –Central, eventually the Eastern vote will be the ultimate decider, the numbers are big and therefore significant.

The position of three key players who supported the referendum Moi, Kalonzo and Uhuru has shifted, referendum results are not likely to be repeated.

Low male registration among the Luo cannot be faulted on the Luo men, women tend to outnumber men in the census but Luo Nyanza has being severely afflicted by the HIVAid pandemic which continues to claim a large number of males, the gap between the number of females and males is getting wider. The registered numbers of voters is very high and gives 1:2.5 Kenyan of the 33 million Kenyans’ is a registered voter.

Tally,..
written by Veron,.. , September 17, 2007

The battle will come down to North Eastern,Coast and Western Provinces,where there are no particular inclinations to either Raila or Kibaki,though analysts are predicting the Battle might be in Western alone i think the other two provinces cannot be ignored,the rest will be a tie of (give or take)4 million votes each Kibaki getting his from Central(2million),and the other 2million from the Kikuyu diaspora mostly in Nairobi,Riftvalley and from their Ameru Aembu Cousins in Eastern province which is the second after Rift valley in number of registered voters in the country,..
Raila might get a cool 1.5m in both Luo and Kisii Nyanza ,and this is assuming Kisii Nyanza is all Orange and another 2.5 Million from the Kamatusa regions of Rift Valley,a tricky situation for him in an area which voted Moi and KANU through and through,and all this will be mostly dictated by a strong voter turn out a rare occurence ironically in both Central and Nyanza provinces going by past records,Nairobi will be wide open though slightly tilted towards Kibaki's side,which comes down to the remaining three provinces i've mentioned above to decide,and this are the areas the Helicopters and Hummers will land most!

weak vote machine?
written by ropoka , September 19, 2007

What with the gender distribution in Nairobi and Mombasa? Where have all the city women gone to? I always see more women than men on the streets of Nairobi, ama they only care about kesha, heng, na keroro? Seems like Luos have failed to turn out the vote once more. It's of particular note that, Luo men, -, haven't registered; instead they've left it for the women to vote for them.

[Edited by Moderator]

I now see
written by Orutu , September 23, 2007

After scanning through those numbers and looking at regions that have perennially supported Kibaki e.g Nairobi, Central and parts of eastern plus Rift Valley, I can see why Kibaki seems to be in no hurry to get his campaign up and running. Perhaps too comfortable for his own good but it explains.

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written by Kobangoshe , October 09, 2007

There is no dispute that numbers count more than rhetorism. Taking a risk based campaign approach, one can see why 2007 presidential candidates have no option but to be seriously strategic. Investing heavily in terms of time and resources in low voter numbers at the expense of the high voter numbers, seem suicidal. That explains why there has been a lot of focus on Western Province, and particularly Bungoma and Kakamega and also the Rift Valley. Selectivity is critical, especially where numbers and costs count.

Although these voter numbers are right now quite raw, these will need to be colated, and many will discarded if they are found to be as a result of double or tripple registration. Voters who too the risk of registering more than once without seeking change of location, stand to have their voter's cards void. These Kenyans will loose out on their voting right for acting silly. When ECK gives warning against double registration, people would better take it seriously and heed the call.

The next most important message to voters is that they shoulod come out and vote their choice of president, MP and civic representative. The civil education process should be geared toward ensuring voter apathy does not reign any longer as has been the case in past elections and by-elections.

The youth and the old should all come out and vote. It is now common knowledge that the young people tend to be impatient and can not stomach long lines. Unfortunately, when faced by such situations, young people tend to postpone voting to a later time, in the hope that the queues will have run short later in the day. Meanwhile, the young persons, especially those with a good disposable income, will go with friend and drink and have fun. As this behavior takes on them, voting becomes secondary. Hence a good number of young people end up not casting their votes.

Women and men especially the working class, will need ample travel time and voting time. The emplyers have to be compelled to allow their staff time off to vote. That is why elections on a Monday makes sense. Tuesday too may not be as bad either. Rural voters also need time to attend to their livestock and other chores. Hence for them early voting would be the way to go. Many tend to alternate and allow each other in a family time off to cast their votes.

All this will require civil educators to discuss with the potential voters on the need to plan together how they will manage their day and ensure they vote within the prescribed time window. I have in the past noted that toward end of a voting period, many voters tend to rush to pall stations to vaote just before closure. I think anyone in the line should be allowed to cast their vote. Voter transporation when it's just facilitation, should not be discouraged. What is bad is voter importation from one constituence to an other. That is a crime and a big risk. Voter educators should go out and help prevent such malpractices.

Voting pattern
written by JohnKen , October 11, 2007

From the steadman opinion polls analysis, Wester, Northeastern and Nyanza province as a whole are lock and key under ODM. For Kibaki, Eastern and Central Province are under lock and Key for PNU. Struggle for votes will and should be fiercest in Coast, riftvalley and Nrb. This will provide the swing vote to the winner. ODM should not celebrate yet. The battle is far from over.Check also teh rejuvaneted PNU and teh nergized Kibaki.

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written by Jabungu , October 19, 2007

A combination of the second and third largest ethnic groups in the country in ODM neutralizes the numerical superiority of the largest tribe in PNU. This leaves the rest of the country up for grabs, with the massive Meru/Embu/Tharaka votes swinging the PNU way and Rift valley going the Orange original's.

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written by Jabungu , October 19, 2007

Coast has a large Muslim population, which would give ODM an edge.