One way or the other, a majority of Kenyans are affected by poverty, insecurity, low quality education, inadequate health services, a lack of social welfare programs and huge disparities in income.
Growing unemployment, tribalism, massive corruption, disempowerment, escalating prices of basic commodities and a desperate hopelessness are also continuing to ravage our society.
With less than twelve weeks to the general elections, many people must be reflecting on imminent and crucial electoral decisions. The two horses battling for the Presidency (I'll temporarily exclude the donkey); Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, have respectively set entirely different visions for addressing the above concerns.
A look at President Kibaki's policies indicates that his main focus has been maximizing growth in the short-term, while passing on the burden of poverty alleviation and equitable distribution, to future governments. His chief challenger Raila indicates in his vision that tackling poverty and ensuring equitable resource distribution will be immediately prioritized under his government.
 | the forgotten poor
| While Raila views curbing corruption, streamlining governance through a new constitution and pursuing a programme of massive investment in infrastructure as key pillars in his poverty alleviation efforts, his rival Kibaki is silent on corruption and constitution reforms, proposing only the most modest investment in infrastructure.
After all Kibaki would not wish to remind Kenyans about his failed promise to deliver reforms through a new constitution in 100 days, neither would he wish to stir a hornets nest by outlining what he has done (not done) to fight corruption.
Conservative proponents of Presidential systems like Kibaki are adept at significantly limiting public spending and facilitating fewer benefits for the people, and this eventually results in inequality, as is the case with our current system.
Many saw the gusto with which Health Minister Charity Ngilu's universal healthcare plan was trashed by Kibaki and his Finance Minister for the specific reason of having the letter S, for social, sitting in front of the name of the plan.
On the contrary, progressive reformists focus principally on social and economic improvement of people's lives. Power-sharing in a people-driven and consultative process, along with devolution of power, as provided for in the Bomas Draft, guarantees more public spending and less inequality. This is precisely what Raila Odinga has vowed to change and set as his reform hallmark if given an opportunity to govern.
While Kibaki's record on public spending is documented, Raila has committed to prudently spend more of public funds in economic growth stimulants like infrastructure and devolution. Even considering very basic spending on people, Mwai Kibaki has demonstrated his reluctance to increase CDF constituency allocations up beyond the paltry current level of 2.5 % of national expenditure. On the other hand ODM's Raila Odinga, has offered an immediate increase in CDF allocations to 10%, from which point, it would eventually be expected to rise to 30% contingent upon other factors. That alone, is an indicator of clear differences between their respective poverty alleviation concerns.
Raila has specific and big infrastructure plans to: convert Mombasa port into a free port, construct another port at Lamu, and modernize the inland port at Kisumu; and expand to international airport status, Kisumu, Malindi and Wajir's facilities. In addition, the facilities at Isiolo, Lamu and Lodwar would be expanded and improved to full airport status. This he sets out to fund through a collaborative effort of public, private sector, and international partnerships.
The ODM candidate also proposes to expand and modernize the railway system; improve telecommunications; rehabilitate and expand our road network, build a dual carriageway from Mombasa to Malaba/Busia; construct water-supply and conservation systems for multiple uses and upgrade infrastructure in all our cities and major towns. In a late effort at playing catch-up (following the launch of his competitors' visions), President Kibaki has recently promised to improve already existing airports. By proposing the same airport projects proposed by Raila, Kibaki's promise spurs negligible excitement not only because he has been in office for five years, but also because the public is aware of his penchant for not fulfilling publicly stated promises. 
| bridging them out of poverty
| Rather than upgrade most town and city infrastructure across the nation like Raila plans to, Kibaki proposes to improve a select few model towns including his native Othaya, and the Local Government Minister's neighborhood towns of Bungoma and Kitale.
While Kibaki primarily seeks to invest development in parts of the country that are already prosperous, due to their proximity to the centre of power, Raila fronts for economic expansion beyond the traditional "high potential" zones designated through 1964's Sessional paper number 10, co-authored by Kibaki.
President Kibaki's formula for regional investing has taken a clear pattern lately. The incumbent president is currently engaged in roadside dolling-out of promises for regional development while seeking votes, for instance proposing the setting up of universities at the Coast and Western provinces, during campaign tours in the respective regions. His main competitor Raila, on the other hand, has laid out an equitable plan to ensure that at least one university is built in all eight provinces of Kenya.
Adding to the haphazard and inequitable resource distribution quagmire, and utilizing his presidential patronage whims, the President has lately resorted to proclaiming the establishment of various administrative units such as districts and divisions, at individual requests of local politicians while on vote seeking tours. On the contrary, his ODM nemesis has stuck to his stance that political patronage should not be the factor determining our internal re-districting, preferring an objectively spelt methodology instead.
While provision of free primary education has been touted as Kibaki's major achievement, it must be clearly noted that problems of low quality and gender and regional disparities still dog public education. Teacher : pupil ratios are as good as 1 teacher per 15 pupils in a few Municipalities, Kiambu and Nyeri districts; while as terrible as 1 teacher for 70 pupils in Kwale, Wajir, Kisumu, Butere-Mumias, Mwingi, and Narok districts.
| wake up call
| Whereas Kibaki campaign strategists would want to sell a blanket statement of success in basic education across the country, the reality is that many parents are aware that millions of their children are being left behind through policies whose architects are Prof. George Kinuthia Saitoti (Minister), Beth Mugo (Asst. Minister) and Prof. Karega Mutahi (PS). Raila Odinga recently pointed out that rather than increase spending on education (both basic and secondary); the Kibaki government has instead increased spending in the Defense budget by 11 billion shillings, reaching 35 billion shillings.
As suspected (we are not at war), the ODM leadership attributes this increase in pooling of public funds in Defense, under the Office of the President (OP), as a calculated assault on our coffers, through fictitious military procurements for non existent goods and services that eventually give rise to scams like Anglo-Leasing. Old habits die hard and the lure to steal is irresistible among those schooled in the old colonial order.
Just like oil and water, primitive wealth accumulation and poverty alleviation don't mix. A presidential candidate agitating for immediate address of poverty concerns, like Raila, is definitely considered a threat to both the incumbent President Kibaki and former President Moi's own wealth protection schemes. Wealth protection of yesteryear and present-day looters seems to be a key objective of President Kibaki's. How else could one explain his sitting on the Kroll report detailing the looting and stashing abroad of Kenya's public coffers since the year 2004? How about his inaction to the Goldenberg inquiry report, the Ndun'gu report, the Ouko inquiry report, Githongo dossier, and PIC reports on Anglo-Leasing corruption scams?
| two from the top
| Kibaki's principal challenger Raila, while in the US on a trip recently, vowed to fight corruption and declared that he was ready to pay the heavy price for it, since he argued that corruption is the single biggest impediment to our development. Fighting corruption and ending presidential patronage is no simple task. It calls for the mobilization of majority of citizens. ODM is a threat to the existing order, especially because it is working for a new Constitution seeking to introduce devolution and executive power sharing.
Raila is also be a threat to the existing order because he has vowed to end official tribalism which he accuses Kibaki of perpetrating, through detribalizing, and giving a face of Kenya, to the public service, starting with the two most powerful institutions in the country, namely the Office of the President and State House. They are currently dens of tribalism.
Looking at insecurity, it is difficult to give President Kibaki a passing score following: his disastrous handling of the ghastly acts of terrorism by Mungiki; Mt. Elgon conflicts; Likia, Trans Mara and Kuresoi clashes; Artur mercenary brothers saga; the media raid on Standard and KTN; and the obvious infiltration of the police force by political meddlers. Many suspect that Raila can provide a stark contrast to such ineptitude and conflict of interest.
Land reforms have been another elusive subject pitting conservative status quo proponents like Kibaki, against reformists like Raila. It is no secret that the large scale land owners comprising colonial settlers, Asian profiteers and collaborators elites born of local colonial administration allies, and conservative politicians from the Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki regimes have had an upper hand in this debate. They are all on Kibaki's side while the poor and landless look up to ODM for redress of this injustice.
Kibaki is obviously not keen to disturb his own peace and that of his allies, through serious and comprehensive efforts to address social and historic land injustices. Millions of landless squatters continue being squeezed into tiny inhumane plots. The best Kibaki has done is to try to unleash a smokescreen on this land issue, through cosmetic, uncoordinated hand-outs of small tracts to loyal subjects. In a bid not to disturb the multi-decade order drawn by colonialists, Kibaki has avoided the comprehensive, constitution backed, land reform route that his ODM rival prefers. Many squatters may have noticed the gimmick.
| ready for takeoff?
| As we draw nearer the elections, recent events reminiscent of the last days of the Moi regime seem to re-appear. There has been a sudden frenzy to privatize public corporations at discounted prices, through irregular deals. For instance, Kibaki's government is in a rush to quickly dispose public shares at Safaricom when pertinent questions about full disclosure and ownership, at Mobitelea, have arisen. The leaked Kroll report reveals that MPs, Gideon Moi and Nicholas Biwott and Biwott's Canadian son-in-law, are the owners of Mobitelea and by extension 5-10% of Safaricom, The public wonders how the three mysteriously acquired ownership of a portion of Safaricom huge enough to generate a billion shillings annually.
While Kibaki pushes for the Safaricom deal to go through, as espoused by his Finance Minister's statements, Raila has vowed to block the divestiture deal through the courts, until all the public concerns and questions are cleared.
It will be very interesting to see in whom, between the two contrasting horses, the status quo proponent Kibaki, and the change agent Raila, the majority of Kenyans will entrust their faith. The campaign blitz promises to be very exciting and I am cautiously optimistic that ODM will prevail.
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Questions:
1) what form of devolution does he envision? Will he grant political, administrative and fiscal devolution to the provinces/districts/towns? I.e. will municipalities directly vote for their officials? Also how will municipalities raise the public revenue, will they still rely on the central government for disbursements, or does he envision subsidizing some e.g. Mandera as opposed to Nairobi, or does he have in mind independent financing such as establishing in law the provisions for municipal bond funds on the NSE? I know other countries in Africa are thinking creatively along these lines when they say devolution, what are his specifics?
2) Infrastructure projects and public/private partnerships. Where will he get the funding? I know Kibaki is going the route of international sovereign bonds to finance infrastructure projects, what is Raila's preference? Also what are his views in regards to the potential of inflation, deteriorating balance of payments and destabilization in the domestic financial markets especially if government once again CROWDS OUT the domestic private sector especially struggling SMEs.
3) POVERTY ALLEVIATION: Welfare state or robust domestic private sector? Raila seems to lean towards establishing a welfare state, what are his views on the impact this will have on productivity, resource and capital efficiency that are all vital ingredients for a growing domestic private sector?
4) CORRUPTION: How will he reconcile the fact that both his vice president and Prime Minister designate are tainted with corrupt business and political dealings plus have a demonstrable track record of lack of integrity, principles and outright professional incompetence?
Kibaki is a disappointment but many Kenyans are intelligent and savvy enough to know that social, political and economic well being comes at CONSIDERABLE cost with a lot of sacrifices and compromises. The Government cannot 'solve' wananchi's problems at best it can facilitate through sound economic and public policy the environment for wealth to be created and expanded. I would like to hear Raila's position on where he thinks THESE COMPROMISES AND SACRIFICES WILL OCCUR, AND HOW HE WILL PRIORITIZE THOSE TOUGH DECISIONS.