The air is rife with rumours, most of them about an attempt by the government to rig the election. Other topics of fervent discussion include allegations that the government will not hand over to the ODM should it be beaten on Thursday.

It is not intended that these allegations are given any credibility, and I'm loathe to give them added mileage, but they represent what is a very real possibility that the post-election scenario may not be a harmonious one, and that depending on the actions of the main political leaders, we may be going down a very slippery slope.

The first is the allegation on the part of the ODM that the election has already been rigged. They have been saying this since September, and seem to shift the goal posts every time the Electoral Commission calls them to account or proves their allegation false. An article has been written here on the party's strategy, its appeal to the Kenyan people that the government will not deliver a free and fair election. It is a naked attempt to delegitimise any result that does not declare the ODM victorious. This video here shows a television interview in which the ODM candidate makes these allegations, and the ECK chair dismisses them and pledges a free and fair election, promising to report to Kenyans should any barriers be placed in his way.

Previous articles here, like this one for example, ODM cries wolf-again, have also shown that even were State House to approve of a scheme to rig the ODM out, it would be impossible to do this without the cooperation of ODM and ODM-K agents, presiding and returning officers and a pliant public. Given the closeness of the election, it is impossible anywhere in the country, to gather together a large enough group of conspirators acting on a national level that would be able to steal the election for any one side. What could happen,with election counting taking place at the grassroots level is that there will be attempts in areas where either side is particularly strong to add to the vote tally of the dominant party. The table below shows for example, some very suspicious turn-out figures for particular constituencies at the referendum.

These outliers, with extraordinary turnouts in excess of 70% gave the Yes group 51,759 while the No group managed from just these 25 constituencies a colossal 967,288 votes. So it was that 25 constituencies in two provinces gave the ODM a total of close to one million votes, while the balance, 185 yield the remaining 2,280,718 No votes countrywide. That is an average of 38,691.52 per constituency in these 25, and only 12328.2 for the rest of the 185 constituencies. No one has yet explained why these specific constituencies would be so much more passionate about the referendum than other Kenyans, but whatever the reasons for these turnouts, they are indicative of the fact that either side is capable of electoral fraud. 

With the hope that the rigging allegations will either be substantiated or else kept at bay, let me regale you with some of the nuttier rumours flying about. Depending on where your political proclivities lie, take your pick.

The first is that ODM-K candidate Kalonzo Musyoka is working for the government. This calumny has persisted against all reason, outlasting his vigorous attacks against the President and the PNU, morphing in the recent weeks into a Ksh. 10 billion bribe from State House and finally into whispers that President Kibaki has offered to step down for the ODM-K candidate. Bizarrely, Kalonzo is said to have refused this most generous offer. 

Then there's the one that candidates are being paid between 5 and 10 million shillings to step down in constituencies with an over-supply of Kibaki leaning candidates. Their dropping out is supposed to smoothe the path for the PNU candidate.

There are also allegations of a plot to rig Raila Odinga out of the Lang’ata seat. Whether these are just jitters or true fear of defeat is not immediately obvious, but the latest version of this story has 3000 administration policemen from around the country, 35 per district,  gathered at the Administration Police Training College in readiness to perpetrate the Lang'ata plot.

Another rumour has it that there is a plot to have voters dip their finger in indelible voting ink and thus disqualify themselves from voting on election day. 

The PNU and its candidates are said to be have conceded in their hearts that the election is lost and have restricted their efforts to vote fraud. This strategy is said to be inspired by the intelligence services' assessment that the ODM's presidential candidate would win 62% of the vote.

The pollsters who show a smaller gap between the two leading candidates, Steadman Raila-Kibaki 45%-43%, and Gallup 43%-44%; are said to be very close to State House. The only results that are accepted as true are those that show Raila leading by a wider margin and even these are said to be depressed. The true figure, ODM supporters insist is closer to the 60% mark for their candidate.

The ODM is said to be running a very efficient campaign, so much so that they have moles at the PNU headquarters, moles who pass the ODM candidate updates of PNU decisions within 15 minutes of their being made. 

The ODM is said to be promising deals for those who contribute to its war chest. Businessmen from Central Kenya, and those of Asian extraction are alleged to be lending their support in campaign contributions to the ODM campaign, this following promises of rewards once the ODM candidate is in office.

The ODM candidate is said to be spoken of within his campaign as Mr. President within his campaign. Rumour insists that the ODM side is preparing massive continuous demonstrations and an alternative inauguration should it lose the election. 

At the local level, the main parties  claim to be experiencing trouble in getting agents in their opponents areas of dominance for fear of violent reprisals. In Nairobi, the ODM candidates exhortations against rent payments seem to have led to tenants from his ethnic group refusing to pay rent on their accomodation. Landlords are said to be wary of renting their property out to them, and are preparing special contracts.

Efforts in Central Kenya and Nyanza at ensuring high turn-out are leading to intimidation of voters, minor candidates and business people. In Central Province there are rumours that shop owners who open on the 27th will have their businesses burned.

Whichever side you are supporting it will be important that we all work toward a healing after the election, aware all the time that the result is going to be a close one and that the poor and hungry are vulnerable to misuse by forces both local and foreign that are hell-bent on getting an outcome favourable to their interests.