Nothing against the good man who I personally believe has Kenya’s betterment at heart considering his years of fighting for good governance. In fact, I would vote for Raila over the opportunistic cum “liberator” KANU damu turncoat Kalonzo. I say Raila’s chances are the slimmest based purely on tribal arithmetic, and the traditional tribal voting patterns, which sadly is Kenya’s signature electoral method. It just doesn’t work for Raila. But I digress a little bit from the main gist of my opinion piece. I will revisit that issue later in this piece.  

Politics is largely a game of numbers they say. And considering our voting patterns and tribal arithmetic, I want to make a very bold prediction — Uhuru Kenyatta will be Kenya’s next president. Yes, I said Uhuru. I’ll explain my prediction:  

ODM has settled on delegates at the constituency level choosing the party’s presidential candidate. It’s either that, or consensus among the presidential hopefuls. Both methods give Uhuru a head start if indeed politics is a game of numbers. The distribution of delegates all over the country tilts the odds for Uhuru in terms of numbers assuming of course that Kenyans will stick to their traditional tribal voting pattern. And so does the argument for consensus considering that the sitting president is Kikuyu like Uhuru. 

Uhuru is the only candidate among the ODM guys that can easily beat Kibaki if they settle on him (the operative word being easily). Again from a numbers point of view, he is the only candidate who can split the Kikuyu vote which Kibaki is so heavily dependent on for re-election—numbers that no serious contender for the presidency can ignore. Add to that the votes from the other candidates’ regions and ODM sails through to power without breaking a sweat . Many will argue with that analysis I’m sure, but read on. 

At the moment, sentiment in and around the Mt. Kenya region and its diaspora in the Rift Valley and Eastern provinces,a nd parts of Nairobi is that the “uthamaki” (presidency) is under threat from being taken away from them. So the Kikuyu everywhere have rallied around and resolved to protect it by voting to a man for Kibaki in 2007. But faced with two choices again — Uhuru vs Kibaki, and with no real threat to the “uthamaki”, more Kikuyus will go for the younger guy. The same would go for the rest of Kenya especially with the other ODM big wigs supporting Uhuru. And I believe that analysis of fact is alive and seen to ODM political strategists if they are serious and honest with their work. I also believe that Kibaki’s strategists would dread an Uhuru candidature for the same reason.  

Another argument for Uhuru other than the idea of splitting the Kikuyu vote for ODM, is to dispel the notion that ODM was formed to isolate the Kikuyu politically. And currently ODM is trying very hard to allay those fears. What better way to do that than sponsor an Uhuru candidacy for president! I can see Uhuru strategists using that if it came down to consensus.  

On the other hand, Kibaki’s strategists would readily welcome a Raila candidature. Why? He is easy to define, and therefore paint all manner of skepticism and cynicism over his candidature and character. He has been labeled a turncoat/plotter/schemer who cannot be trusted with leadership. Who knows what he would do with the power if elected president? This is the lingering question in most people’s minds even those who may admire him. Moreover, many a time over the past he has influenced the parliamentary and civic aspirants’ nominations. His detractors would point to that as dictatorship.  

Sure Raila is an exciting politician but he talks too much for his own good. He can pull crowds to a rally and has a very loyal base that would readily vote for anyone he endorses. But even with that loyal base (however big) under his belt, it is not enough to propel him to statehouse because it is only confined to one of the many corners of Kenya. In most of the other corners of Kenya there is a general perception whether misconceived or not, that he cannot be trusted with the presidency because of the abrasive style and scheming nature of his politics — a perception that he is really working hard to shed at the moment.  

Raila’s loyal voting base would be a big asset for either an Uhuru or Kalonzo candidacy. But you cannot say the same of Uhuru’s or Kalonzo’s base for Raila. That is more reason why Raila would not be the ideal candidate for ODM if they want to remove Kibaki from power. Raila’s loyal base is like a double edged sword — both an asset and a liability for him. An asset in that, if he is part of the team that forms any government, he is likely to wield a lot of power in the country’s politics as we have seen in the last five years. However, when it comes to propelling him to the presidency, his loyal base does not do him any good because it creates some phobia (unfounded or not) among the majority. And Kenyan psyche is known to be weary about electing abrasive and antagonistic politicians to the all powerful office.  

Although he is my least favorite guy among the top four, I will acknowledge that Kalonzo would give the president a good run for his money were he to be chosen the ODM candidate. What works for him in the odds against Kibaki? He is seen as moderate, which Kenyans like to perceive of their president. He has no corruption allegations leveled against him yet. He also has a lot of years serving in government, which Kenyans like to believe is always positive. It doesn’t matter whether that experience is bad, or was acquired in a pathetic government. It is the number of years served that counts for most Kenyans. So, Kalonzo’s service in Moi’s government would actually be a good argument for him as to why he should be the one to face Kibaki — an asset for him!  

What does not work for Kalonzo against Kibaki? The very same experience in the KANU government — just like Raila’s loyal base, Kalonzo’s long association with Moi’s KANU is like a double edged sword for him. As much as that experience would serve his prospects well considering the Kenyan voter psyche, there are a sizeable number of voters who might view it negatively. Kalonzo still has that yesteryear baggage on him. He had been in the system too long (a bad system for that matter) that he cannot offer any meaningful change than Kibaki has. He doesn’t present Kenya with an opportunity for real change like say, Raila or Uhuru would for instance. His detractors wouldn’t hesitate to remind potential voters of that. If Kalonzo is the candidate, there is a very good chance that Kenyan voting psyche would therefore dictate that they stick with the devil they know in Kibaki — remember Moi?