For me, however, the prospects of an ODM government and a Raila presidency are anything but good news. They present a nightmare far worse than I am prepared to countenance, one in contrast with which the inefficiency of the Mwai Kibaki government looks positively benign. I believe that the only thing worse than a perpetuation of the present state of things would be a retardation, a cancellation of whatever steps we have made forward. More than anything, I am wary of any government that would do damage to our already fragile structure.

the little victories

The ODM leader and his party have nothing but a very pithy sales pitch they call their 12 point plan, even worse Raila Odinga has shown himself to possess both a reckless streak and a profound disrespect for reality .

It is difficult to reconcile my education and knowledge with a trust in a Raila Odinga led government. When a man struts about likening himself to the Christ, when such a man pledges to perform a miracle and grow the economy at a stratospheric 20% per annum; there is a real limit to the choice of conclusions one can draw about his state of mind.

I do not believe for a moment that the ODM leader has anything planned for Kenya. More than that even, the ODM leader cannot work in a structure for too long without offending his colleagues. The ODM, and its allies as constituted, comprises individuals who are only drawn to the ODM group by the large crowds and populist rhetoric. Their uneasy compromise with Raila cannot stand the test of time. William Ruto, James Orengo, Billow Kerrow and Charity Ngilu are just a few of the politicians who are in ODM against their wishes, perhaps in a sense similar to that with which I now find myself on the PNU side.

These characteristics of Raila's and the ODM party are crucial to beating the party at the next General Elections. But even more crucially than that, the President and his campaign team must ask, why is the PNU coalition not doing better? The genius of Raila Odinga does not alone explain it, there are many missteps and outrages the Kibaki government has contrived that everyday repel Kenyans from its ranks. Raila's specific prestige does add to the ODM numbers, but it does not explain why even his enemies like Ngilu or Nyong'o or Orengo are defecting to his party. The PNU must ask itself why, in spite of its unrivalled dominance of Kenya's largest communities and its incumbency, it still lags behind in the opinion polls.

Here is how I believe the gap can be reduced.

pulling together

financial resources and nominations
The President and his cohort are wealthy men who can call on extensive financial resources. Assuming that these resources in themselves are what they seek to protect/ advance then they must not hold back in using up some capital to stay in office.

ODM alleges that it has gained 300 million shillings from the sale of nomination forms. I do not believe them for a minute, but it certainly shows how expensive this election is going to be. The President's men can underwrite this challenge to even larger amounts, making it cheaper for those who have already put themselves forward for ODM nominations to defect to the PNU, and also boosting the chances of the youth at the election. Free nominations and campaigns that are underwritten by an outsider will improve the pool of candidates, and also serve to soak up ODM resources in countering these resources. The team with the deeper pockets will win this election, especially if as we propose, the President delays the election.

delayed election
The PNU needs a 2008 election. The ODM has been on an almost permanent campaign footing since the last election. This is part of the reason for their advanced standing in the opinion polls. A delayed poll not only allows the PNU time to get organized, and to put its message across, it also gives it time to use its financial power to sow discord within ODM (which is after all a loose and uncomfortable coalition). An October, November, December of steady campaigning can turn this election on its head and even put the President in a landslide position. In the intervening time, the loyalty of the dithering ODM types can be bought, and the fallout from the ODM nominations can be turned into votes.

the little things

The PNU nominations must be planned well in advance and must be engineered to contrast in the utmost with the ODM ones. Without a doubt, the ODM nominations will be undemocratic, and messy. The fallout will be immense, and the grudges must be used to crack ODM open.

outflank ODM on the age gap and go even younger
The PNU is widely perceived as a party of old foggy types. Their age carries with it two charges, the first is that they are complicit in the crimes visited upon the people of Kenya these past 44 years. The second is that they are selfishly refusing to retire from politics, hogging the stage and making decisions whose fall-out they will not have to deal with.

The likes of Simeon Nyachae, John Michuki, Njenga Karume, Moody Awori and President Moi cannot do anything but harm President Kibaki's chances. A plethora of sturdy professional Kenyan youth is eager to enter politics, real youth, and not the plus 40 year olds of ODM.

The bulk of this group will be uncomfortable with the rough and tumble of ODM, its rowdy and disorganised rallies and the lack of a program to sell. They will also be unlikely to view with any pleasure Raila's sentiments on the Nairobi Stock Exchange, or the instability that his government promises. Kibaki's PNU must therefore show today, that it is a party of polished and resourceful young people. These people may not have what it takes to run against an incumbent. A shot in the arm will do wonders; especially if these youths are the very ones who the prominent older types would have depended on to run their campaigns as is the norm. Again, even if these candidates do not win, they will harass the ODM candidates and keep all of them very busy at constituency level, soaking up ODM's time and resources.

political hierarchy
One hopes the Steadman polls have produced a lively terror at State House. The spectacle of ministers frothing at their mouths over Raila Odinga certainly indicates exactly this. Still some organization is now crucial. The first step would be re-organizing the government itself. Moody Awori must be replaced as soon as possible. FORD-Kenya has for a very long time had its roots sunk deep across Western province. They are best placed to counter the ODM wave. In our tribal politics, the Bukusu have a tradition of voting independently of the rest of Western province.

It is also necessary now that like Cesare Borgia did with Ramiro d'Orco, State House relieve itself of other ministers but especially of John Michuki and Simeon Nyachae. In Machiavelli's treatise for governors, the Prince, he tells the story of Ramiro, a Spaniard who Borgia used to instill discipline and fear in his subjects. But when Borgia desired the loyalty of his citizens, he had two halves of Ramiro d'Orco's body on opposite sides of the town square; the explanation being that d'Orco had been too tough. In this way Kibaki can show his sympathy with Kenyans, like he has already done by binning the oppressive KACC and Media Bills. If Kibaki cannot be a one term president, Michuki and Nyachae can at least be one term minister. The internal security minister and his public works colleague, among others would serve as good scapegoats for all the trouble Kibaki's government has caused Kenyans.

Chief Minister?

Eliminating them also opens up room for ambition in the PNU ranks. The competition for these spaces will also invite politicians across from ODM, especially those who realize that they have little chance of getting any positions of prominence in the Raila-led movement.

A vice-presidency for FORD-Kenya's Musikari Kombo and the position of Chief Minister for Kipruto Arap Kirwa will also serve to shake-up ODM's arrangement. While ODM struggle to sell the sullied Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto, PNU's contrast in Musikari Kombo and Kipruto Arap Kirwa will stand out prominently. Even more the PNU can use these to puncture the fantasy that ODM is a reformist party.

defections and the regions

One or two defections, highlighted in the media and with reasons that cast the ODM and its leader in a bad light will help to check ODM's advance, especially if these come in the swing regions. Still, PNU must never compromise on giving the youngest Kenyans a chance, and talent must rule at the nominations. Any interference will play into the ODM's hands.

A candidate of some strength should be posted to each ODM chief's constituency. Even where this candidate does not win, it is necessary that the ODM chief be so bothered and distracted, that he is precluded from contributing much on the national stage. This is especially vital for Charity Ngilu, William Ruto, Najib Balala and Joseph Nyagah, but no less true for Musalia Mudavadi and Raila Odinga. Indeed, if Ndura Waruinge can have a run that brings him even 30% of the votes in Langata the ODM boss will be so bothered he may not have the energy for a national campaign.

media and the crowds
The PNU must not be coy about using their financial advantage to create crowds. I am not talking about buying votes, but if it takes bussing people in or calling on people's homes, then there the PNU must do it. Go door to door like Jehovah's Witnesses and win the middle class over at the very least. With our large dependency ratios, winning the middle class over is by itself going to have a large multiplier effect on both turn-out and persuasion.

pear-shaped for Orange

The image of the PNU and the president as aloof must be put to rest. Large, large crowds at campaign rallies are essential for victory in this election. A large part of the ODM's popularity is caused by the large numbers it attracts to its events.

At the Coast, Western province, the Gusii districts and especially the Rift Valley, a difference can be made by feet on the ground. The president must show real empathy for the farmers. An effort must be shown towards making clear to the rural poor that the state is working on solutions to their problems, but that even where they are not yet being felt, there are plans in place to turn things around. Church groups and women's groups must be used to advance the message of economic development as contrasted with the excitable music and football of the ODM groups. The benefits of stability and better markets will not be lost on the women and especially the rural women, who as the polls already show are the less likely than the men to back Raila Odinga.

Television and the media must be used to the full extent. Especially crucial will be video footage showing violence in which the ODM leader is engaged. The violence of the Baghdad Boys, the episodes with Martha Karua and Amos Kimunya, the Thika Stadium incident with Michael Wamalwa, Anyang' Nyong'o declaring that economic progress was being made and jobs were being created, Raila destroying houses in Nairobi and so on. People tend to have short memories, polite and subtle reminders would not be out of order. The Lang'ata MP has countless such cases of foot and mouth that can be taken advantage of, both to distract from his message and to annoy him and his camp.

Most vitally, one must always remember that apart from the presidential candidates' regions most votes are still up in the air. Mwai Kibaki is on the ropes and on his shoulders the ignominy of a discredited and potentially precipitous presidency. Even if he loses, he must make sure that he has done everything in his power to craft an opposition so strong that it can save Kenya from the damage of power unchecked.