A new report brings intriguing data about voting patterns in Kenya. To no one's surprise, elections in God's own country are mostly an exercise in ethnic head-counting. But not always. 

There are other factors that pull at the electorate, and at least in the minds of the respondents, evidence of an aspiration towards elections as a referendum on the performance of the incumbent rather than a mindless affirmation of ethnic affiliation.  The importance of ethnicity it seems is dependent on the voter's self-ascribed identity, with "ethnics" more often employing feelings of group identity and "non-ethnics" more often making rational calculations of self and group interest.

Repudiating the ethnicity firsters, the report shows that a majority of respondents identify more strongly with the Kenyan nation than with their ascribed ethnicity even going as far as disregarding the interviewer's instruction to consider only specific sub-group attachments. 37 percent of respondents insisted on identifying themselves first and foremost as Kenyans, that is, in terms of national identity even where this was not one of the choices offered.  Further, among those who felt an equal affinity to their ethnicity and the nation, only a small fraction -14%- chose the ethnic one when asked to choose only one identity compared to -51%- who chose the national identity.  

Odd however, and in confirmation of previous Afrobarometer surveys, President Kibaki receives positive performance ratings from a range of ethnic groups. The report says, 'even among the Luo, approval of Kibaki's performance stood at 44 percent, which was well above their disapproval rate of 14 percent.' The president enjoys approval for the improved economy, for the inauguration of the free primary school services and also for 'reforming the judiciary and strengthen watchdog agencies.'

It also suggests that even where the government was seen to have failed Kenyans, job creation, gang-crime and constitutional reform, this did not factor greatly with the electorate. It reports, 'By 2007, it appears that constitutional issues had become marginal in the presidential election.'

Significantly, the overwhelming majority of Kenyans 60% believe that the central government retains too much power, even as a minority 36% are afraid that Majimbo would be deleterious to national harmony. It is also clear from the report that a majority of Kenyans understand Majimbo to mean redistributive politics of some sort, with 10% believing that every tribe will have its own government, 16% believing it will result in autonomy for every province, 22% believing it will mean that every tribe live only in its traditional region and 51% believing it will result in jimbo governments controlling their, and a fraction of national revenue.

So much for that, make your own conclusions. See the report below.