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What is America's stake in this? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Patrick Mutahi   
Tuesday, 19 February 2008

America's involvement in Kenya's post-elections political crises must be seen against the background of its "war on terror"- and the unilateralism that propelled it.

The State Department at first congratulated President Mwai Kibaki on his re-election but later rescinded as European Union and other observers reported irregularities in the vote-count. Since then, the Bush administration has been trying not to take sides in the election dispute and his Ambassador taken unofficial role as the Spokesperson for the entire International community pressuring Kenya's political elite to come to a compromise. To America, it is unfathomable that one of its most reliable and crucial partners in the "war against terror" was going to crumble in its lap.

The US is concerned about the security ramifications in the Greater Horn of Africa which it has been trying to hold together. A quick look at the map of Eastern Africa gives America little solace. Somalia is in anarchy with a multitude of warlords and radical Islamists, Sudan is involved in the Darfur war and Ethiopia is near war with Eritrea, which the US accuses of sponsoring terrorism. Between the grim sketches is Kenya, America's hope in the region which is now teetering on the verge of instability.

Kenya's political situation unravels at a time when the 2008 US defence budget has substantially increased reinforcing the Bush administration's persistence that its long "war on terror" will remain at the centre of its security strategy. The core budget for 2008 is expected to be $481.4 billion, compared with $441.5 billion for 2006. In raw terms, the US defence budget is now at similar levels to those during the height of the cold war in the mid-1980s.

Kenya is one of the four 'anchor states' in sub-Saharan Africa in the US led "war on terror", though it has bore the brunt of terrorist attacks. On 31, December 1980, the bombing of the Jewish family-owned Norfolk hotel in Nairobi killed 15 people and injuring 80 others. This was viewed as a revenge attack by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) on Kenya for allowing an Israeli rescue mission to use its facilities to foil the 1976 hijacking of an Air-France plane and its 258 passengers.

It was deadlier on 7, August 1998 after the simultaneous bombing of American embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. Some 263 lives were lost among them 240 Kenyans, (11 Tanzanians and 12 Americans) and injured 5,000 Kenyans and 86 Tanzanians.

Four years later, on 28 November 2002, suspected al Qaeda agents bombed the Israeli-owned Paradise Hotel in Mombasa killing at least 15 people. Within minutes, militants using shoulder-fired SA-7 missiles narrowly missed an El Al passenger plane taking off from Mombassa Airport.

Though the targets were Western interests, Kenyans bore the brunt of the bombings due to its closeness to the West. Since 1970, the U.S. has maintained military access agreements with the Kenyan government that permit the U.S. military to use Kenyan sea and air bases. During the Gulf War, the port of Mombasa was extensively used by the U.S. marines as well as during the U.S. intervention to Somalia in 1992 and the Rwanda humanitarian assistance after the genocide. In 2007 during the routing of radical Islamists of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) by Ethiopia forces aided by the US, the Mombasa base was used as a centre field.

Due to its strategic position of being close to failed States - Somalia and Sudan - that are a haven for terrorists, Kenya after September 11 has benefited immensely from America in accessing funds and capacity to address anti-terrorism.

The Pentagon gave Kenya $1.6 million worth of weaponry and other military assistance in 2006 and an estimated $2.5 million in 2007 through its Foreign Military Sales Program. In 2008 the Bush Administration expects to provide Kenya with $800,000 in Foreign Military Financing Program funds to pay for further arms purchases. Kenya has also been permitted to make large arms deals directly with private American arms producers through the State Department's Direct Commercial Sales Program. Kenya purchased $1.9 million worth of arms this way in 2005, an estimated $867,000 worth in 2007, and is expected to receive another $3.1 million worth this year. 

In addition, the Bush Administration intends to spend $550,000 in 2008 to train Kenyan military officers in the United States through the International Military Education and Training Program at military academies and other military educational institutions in the United States. In October 2006, the Bush administration removed certain restrictions on military training of Kenyan officers that had been imposed on them. This is despite Nairobi refusing to sign an agreement with Washington to exempt U.S. personnel from the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court.

For the five years that followed the 1998 US embassies attack in Nairobi and Dar-es-salaam, Kenya was the second biggest recipient - after Nigeria - of U.S. military, counter-terrorist, and security aid in sub-Saharan Africa. It received a total of nearly $80 million through 2004 and those amounts have remained stable. In 2003 the U.S. created a $100 million East Africa Counterterrorism Initiative whose major beneficiary has been Kenya. 

Thus, security cooperation especially anti-terrorism measures has for long been an important aspect of Kenya-U.S. relations, underscored by airbase and port access. Despite the current political disagreements between the US and Kibaki government, the safety measures of this bond will endure.

That is why the US thus will not stand and watch as its most frontline state in the region disintegrates and is impatient to get any deal through which will guarantee stability. It is worth nothing that its voice has radically shifted from the election being irregular to its international interest of security. 


Patrick Mutahi
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America being ridiculous
written by Eric , February 19, 2008
The talk of power sharing and grand coalation is utter nonesense. When Bush was rigged in by the judges his dad had earlier appointed, he did not make a coalation with the Dems, Al was banished to Hollywood!

Why should Kibaki share power with ODM, because they caused violence? Because they planned and implemented ethnic cleansing in their strongholds?

I say; Kibaki kaa ngumu! Don't give in to Mr. Violence. ODM can start their work in the opposition and keep Kibaki on his toes. Kibaki's PNU(and allies) and ODM-K are the government and ODM is the strong opposition. Let us move on.
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re: njia panda
written by Nori , February 19, 2008
There is only one way to defeat the power-sharing pressure, and that is to give the power back to the Kenyan people. Yaani, Kibaki must remember thatserikali si yake, ni yetu.
At the moment, in this world of back-room deals where Koffi Annan presents proposals that look shockingly like ODM's, the government is looking very lonely. It is the PNU versus Annan, ODM, Civil Society and the West. There is only one way out, to call for elections so Kenyans can decide their future. So Kenyans can tell Raila and the ODM, hatuwataki or else declare their endorsement of violence, lies and ethnic hatred.


Well said Amir. I agree with you on this fully. Fresh elections is the ONLY way Kenyans can decide their future. And TRUE Kenyans will show you who they realy want for president. I bet you know that, otherwise why do you think PNU and its allies are not for fresh elections?

in this world of back-room deals where Koffi Annan presents proposals that look shockingly like ODM's, the government is looking very lonely. It is the PNU versus Annan, ODM, Civil Society and the West


Amir, it is the other way round. In this democratic world of transparency, accountability and Justice:- Yash Pal Ghai, Desmond Tutu, Cyril Ramaphosa, Koffi Anan, Graca Machel, Benjamin Mkapa, Wangari Maathai, Njoki Ndung'u, Human Rights Commissioners, all Kenyan tribes minus Gema and Kambas,all African nations/presidents save for Museveni and the west are with ODM. True, PNU must feel lonely.
I know I am intensely uncomfortable with having murderers, and inciters on ethnic grounds sitting in grand council. I mean ODM is comprised of all the goons Kenyans were jubilant about voting out in 2002, plus the absolutely irredeemable Raila Odinga and his cohort. Like someone has said on another thread, what message are we sending to Central Province, what message are we sending to the future of our electoral politics, if we anoint violence as a means to achieving political ends?


We are all uncomfortable of not only sitting with murderers from ODM on the same council but with murderers from PNU sponsoring Mungiki too. Dictators and arrogant leaders like Martha Karua who think that Kenya is the only country in the world which is fully self sufficient and does not therefore need outside influence....why do they all send their sons and daughters to the west for education if Kenya is heaven? We are uncomfortable sitting with traitors and blackmailers like Kalonzo and Musikari Kombo, former colonial home-guards,corrupt leaders and gender insensitive leaders who laud rapists for raping willing women and guys who standby and watch their wives batter other Kenyans husbands, sons and fathers. But the mediation talks are about sacrifices.

Can it be that everyone who reasons in the same way as the ODM is a big liar?

Wake up guys, stop supporting both the government and opposition blindly. Let us credit and discredit both sides appropriately.
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written by Eric , February 19, 2008
Amir, it is the other way round. In this democratic world of transparency, accountability and Justice:- Yash Pal Ghai, Desmond Tutu, Cyril Ramaphosa, Koffi Anan, Graca Machel, Benjamin Mkapa, Wangari Maathai, Njoki Ndung'u, Human Rights Commissioners, all Kenyan tribes minus Gema and Kambas,all African nations/presidents save for Museveni and the west are with ODM. True, PNU must feel lonely.


How far from the truth! Mkapa is no democrat, read what he did with the opposition in Zanzibar.

Kofi (with one F) is retired and needs to look useful, many will tell you of his indecision during Rwanda and his woes at the UN HQ relating to Oil for Food programme and his son making $.

Wangari has not supported ODM, she has only called for president Kibaki to do more, in fact she has been critical of ODM ethnic cleansing policies in RV.

Njoki is obviously bitter at PNU you sich they failed to support her candidacy for the house speaker.

What African leader has come out in support of ODM or Raila? Even Nigeria is very silent. SA oly spoke when their errand Ramaphosa was rejected. What had they been waiting for. Who cares what Mbeki says anyway, he was wrong on HIV/AIDS he lost his party to Zuma and is ruling on borrowed time.

Kibaki has the numbers to rule. His 4+m votes, add KM 0.8 and he is the man! A rerun would be even more embarassing for Odinga. I am starting to believe what I have heard repeated often that Odinga will never be president.

If ODM were so determined to see change, they would not be talking of power-sharing, they would be demanding for Kibaki to step down. Power-sharing just reveals their motives... power. Why should they share power with the "thief"? I also don't understand their proposals, PM and two deputy PM. First, that is not in the contitution and secondly, it just sounds like people want high sounding posts. What do we need deputy prime ministers for?
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ignorance
written by Amir Ibrahim , February 19, 2008
OK. Alright. It is good we can agree on at least one thing, isn't it?

Neither you nor I know who Kenyans will elect, but my projections give me a feeling it will not be your man. Kenyans are tired of the violence.

I have seen many people who would blame Kibaki for the violence, but I know that all the Luhya, Kisii and Kikuyu from the Rift Valley who were pre-warned, who have tasted Majimbo before, in the 1990s and who may now be able to vote without intimidation wherever they are, are unlikely to agree. It really is not about tribes. Please go through this website and you will see that support for either candidate has little to do with tribal origin, it is peace and prosperity we are after, and your man is not offering it.

For me as a business person, and for countless others across the country, for the lecturers expelled from their jobs, businessmen, civil servants and so on, trust me the ODM honeymoon is over. So well, even if ODM wins, so be it, lakini we do not want the violence.

Yes, we are lonely, the truth and justice are hardly ever with the mob; but it really should rest with the Kenyan people, let them weka muhuri on their destiny. Those who side with anti-Kikuyu sentiment like yourself, who preach against success, enterprise and thrift, let them have a chance to announce that it is not just Raila and Anyang' Nyong'o but all of them who belong in that dini.

Your last paragraphs show the blinding levels of ignorance Wanyama has lamented in previous posts. Now if you could let go of that chip on your shoulder.
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History repeats itself in Afri
written by Kim G. , February 19, 2008
If you examine Africa's history, you will realize that most of the instability in Africa is caused by foreign powers intervening on behalf of an African leader. This happens when its in the interest of the big powers to support a particular candidate.

The United States, France, China and Russia have played this game before. They did it in Angola, South Africa, the Congo, Liberia, Somalia, Ethiopia, and all the other countries experiencing strife. How many Congolese know that Mobutu was on the payroll of the CIA? Unfortunately, the same game is getting played in Kenya.

From the experience of other African countries, I can predict what's going to happen to Kenya. One, or both sides, will get into the deal just to please the United States. Alternately, the pressure to reach a solution will be so much that any dissenting voices will quickly get muffled. Already, the Kenyan media is deep in this.

A few months down the line, grumblings against the peace deal will grow louder and louder till they explode into violence. This pattern has been repeated almost without exception in every country in Africa that has found itself in the unfortunate circumstances that Kenya is experiencing today.

The solution is for Kenyans to think outside the box. The era of backroom political deal-making is over. Just look at NARC circa 2002. Some communities in Kenya have decided not to live with each other. I propose partitioning the country as a step towards long-term peace. There's nowhere where its stated that national borders are cast in stone. Look at Yugoslavia and the former USSR. These people are experiencing much peace living as mono-ethnic nations or, at least, multi-ethnic federation like Russia.
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re: re: njia panda
written by Johnny B. Goode , February 19, 2008
all Kenyan tribes minus Gema and Kambas

That's, incidentally, 40% of the Kenyan population. And you figure Kibaki can't cobble more than 10% from the rest? I'd suggest taking a good look at the results of the last election. Incidentally the ECK Website is up and running again. They've even finally updated the presidential results.

http://eck.or.ke]ECK
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re: ignorance
written by Nori , February 19, 2008

Your last paragraphs show the blinding levels of ignorance Wanyama has lamented in previous posts. Now if you could let go of that chip on your shoulder.

That's ok, as usual ignorance, cheap, liar etc, etc as observed, always lies with anyone close to sharing sentiments with ODM. Wanyama is just but giving his opinions like you and I and I believe that all published opinions appeal to the Kenya Imagine forumers in different ways; we should respect that notion.
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njia panda
written by Amir Ibrahim , February 19, 2008
There is only one way to defeat the power-sharing pressure, and that is to give the power back to the Kenyan people. Yaani, Kibaki must remember that serikali si yake, tena, yetu. At the moment, in this world of back-room deals where Koffi Annan presents proposals that look shockingly like ODM's, the government is looking very lonely. It is the PNU versus Annan, ODM, Civil Society and the West. There is only one way out, to call for elections so Kenyans can decide their future. So Kenyans can tell Raila and the ODM, hatuwataki or else declare their endorsement of violence, lies and ethnic hatred.

I know I am intensely uncomfortable with having murderers, and inciters on ethnic grounds sitting in grand council. I mean ODM is comprised of all the goons Kenyans were jubilant about voting out in 2002, plus the absolutely irredeemable Raila Odinga and his cohort. Like someone has said on another thread, what message are we sending to Central Province, what message are we sending to the future of our electoral politics, if we anoint violence as a means to achieving political ends?

I still believe the US is with Odinga. The war on Terror is a big fat lie, and America is not assisting Kenya, it is justifying the exorbitant amounts it spends on the military and on weapons, basically subsidies to the Military Industrial Complex.

P.S Africom has been returned to Germany, or so I hear. Raila I guess did not deliver.
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re: History repeats itself in
written by a guest , February 19, 2008

The solution is for Kenyans to think outside the box. The era of backroom political deal-making is over. Just look at NARC circa 2002. Some communities in Kenya have decided not to live with each other. I propose partitioning the country as a step towards long-term peace. There's nowhere where its stated that national borders are cast in stone. Look at Yugoslavia and the former USSR. These people are experiencing much peace living as mono-ethnic nations or, at least, multi-ethnic federation like Russia.


Yeah, maybe this might just work out; or even divide the country in to two? This should be done based on provinces supporting PNU and those supporting ODM.

Just an idea........
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written by gichangi , February 19, 2008
Johnny B. Goode
I am afraid that the facts are much healthier than you suppose even. The Bukusu voted for Kibaki almost to a man - ask Wanyama. That is why Kibaki got 25% in that province. The Kisii also voted for Kibaki in large numbers, numbers which will be multiplied by the anger from the fact that as a proportion of their total population the Kisii have felt Majimbo's pinch more than any other Kenyans.
So add Bukusu say 4%? Add Kisii another 4%? Looking like a home-run?

How is the percentage game looking now?
----
I am one of those people who do not believe the West wants anything good for us. Their beef with Kibaki was his look East policy, the way he (Karume) delayed the confirmation of the Nanyuki military base deal, the way Kibaki refused to sign the anti-terrorism act, the way Kibaki refused to sign the agreement exempting American soldiers from the World Court, the way he refused to give them Africom. They were red, not tickled pink, and for me their involvement shows exactly where this is going.

Nori,
You yourself have asked that we do not blindly support the politicians. So why would you call Kalonzo a traitor? Why would you say that there are people who laud rapists? Who are the blackmailers? Let's think, instead of shouting, please.
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re: History repeats itself in
written by Johnny B. Goode , February 19, 2008

The solution is for Kenyans to think outside the box. The era of backroom political deal-making is over. Just look at NARC circa 2002. Some communities in Kenya have decided not to live with each other. I propose partitioning the country as a step towards long-term peace. There's nowhere where its stated that national borders are cast in stone. Look at Yugoslavia and the former USSR. These people are experiencing much peace living as mono-ethnic nations or, at least, multi-ethnic federation like Russia.


I'm sure partitioning won't bring the desired peace. First where do you place the borders. That will probably as big a headache as crafting a new constitution.I can guarantee you right now that all the kikuyus can't fit in Central province. Who gets Nairobi? Does it go back to the Masaais? Or do we share it like the Israelis and the Palestinians in proposed Middle East? And at the end of the day won't you just be creating nation states constantly at war with each other? What happens to the people who have migrated to other parts of the country. How will they be compensated in order to go back to their 'ancestral' homes. Look at the constant feuding between Eritrea and Ethiopia, for signs of things to come. The only good thing would be that our security officers would not abdicate from duty when things get tough.
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written by newxgate , February 19, 2008
With respect to the actions of the US, one should try to resist the temptation to look for conspiracies and evil plots. For one thing, the Bush administration just is not that smart. Of course they have their own strategic interests to the fore like everyone else but my view is that they broadly just want a stable Kenya, for a whole bunch of reasons that go way beyond the war on terror.

The US has actually been more even-handed in its treatment of post election events than the UK and EU, who frankly have been pathetic. The State Department rep Jendayi Fraser was the first international person other than Kofi Annan to call attention to the ethnic cleansing in Rift Valley and to call it by that name. In contrast to the Europeans who don't seem to have got past the election rigging, the US has consistently emphasized that the violence is unacceptable, they have talked about holding those responsible accountable. They have even taken action against those they consider culpable with the visa bans. Note that they explicitly stated that members of both the opposition and government had received bans. Up to this point the ODM had pretty much had a free pass from the international community, the US was effectively saying in diplomatic terms, both sides have their hands dirty.

With that said I do think that the emphasis of Condi Rice on getting a peace deal 'yesterday' is misguided. These things take time, and the statement allows the Government to play the outside interference card too easily.
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ECK site
written by gichangi , February 19, 2008
by the way, the ECK site reveals yet again, that Kibaki won 4 provinces, including North Eastern and Nairobi. To push further my previous point about the Bukusu, please look at the massive number that voted Kibaki, [url=http://www.eck.or.ke/elections2007/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9&Itemid=9&menuGroup=prezzo&userParams[]=7] close to half of what voted Raila.

Western Province
ODM ODINGA RAILA AMOLO 639,246
PNU KIBAKI EMILIO MWAI 312,300
ODM-K MUSYOKA STEPHEN KALONZO 6,729
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re:
written by Paul Kimani , February 19, 2008


They have even taken action against those they consider culpable with the visa bans. Note that they explicitly stated that members of both the opposition and government had received bans.


By what evidence did they arrive at Kabando wa Kabando?
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re: ECK site
written by Wuod Aketch , February 20, 2008
If there were new elections that Kibaki counter would read 0. This is why Kibaki and PNU are refusing for a new presidential election.
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written by interested spectator , February 20, 2008
I propose partitioning the country as a step towards long-term peace. There's nowhere where its stated that national borders are cast in stone. Look at Yugoslavia and the former USSR. These people are experiencing much peace living as mono-ethnic nations or, at least, multi-ethnic federation like Russia.

I agree with everything you said except this is exactly what is the objective of ethnic violence?
-create countries to split into smaller land areas so they are weak and powerless, while the West consolidates into larger and larger blocks. The solution is to eliminate borders not add more. They never existed except in the divide and rule book. Divide and rule is still the order of the day, and instigating ethnic strife is the method.
Read the following
The Praetorian Guard by John Stockwell, former CIA agent
... the CIA had been running thousands of operations over the years... there have been about 3,000 major covert operations and over 10,000 minor operations... all designed to disrupt, destabilize, or modify the activities of other countries... But they are all illegal and they all disrupt the normal functioning, often the democratic functioning, of other societies. They raise serious questions about the moral responsibility of the United States in the international society of nations.
***
...the CIA has overthrown functioning democracies in over 20 countries.
***
...stirring up deadly ethnic and racial strife has been a standard technique used by the CIA.
Link here
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US Solution
written by Cogni , February 20, 2008
Power sharing appears to be the US preferred method of getting their man Raila into power. That is why ODM which previously rejected power sharing now embraces it. I think the US has concluded that an orange or velvet revolution will not work in Kenya. A recount would show Raila lost and they fear Raila cannot win in a fair rerun of the election. Hence power sharing is their only means of getting Raila into power. Note Rice said ODM must have real power not an illusion. I think those who said that Raila had cut a deal with the Americans before the elections were right. There is a hidden motive Americans are notorious for this kind of thing in the Banana republics of central America the US has regularly used covert means to overthrow leaders who fail to serve the interest of the us or of us multinationals like Chiquita (Banana).
It is no wonder then that Kofi who has always been Washington's errand boy is pushing for power sharing as is Washington's poodle the UK and all the NGOs who claim to be grass-roots organizations but are actually astroturf(artificial grass) bought and paid for by the US.

It is hardly fair to call Annan Washington's errand boy. Sections of the American establishment allied to the current government waged a massive campaign against him at the United Nations. Eds.
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US Solution
written by Wuod Aketch , February 20, 2008
Power sharing appears to be the US preferred method of getting their man Raila into power. That is why ODM which previously rejected power sharing now embraces it. I think the US has concluded that an orange or velvet revolution will not work in Kenya. A recount would show Raila lost and they fear Raila cannot win in a fair rerun of the election. Hence power sharing is their only means of getting Raila into power. Note Rice said ODM must have real power not an illusion. I think those who said that Raila had cut a deal with the Americans before the elections were right. There is a hidden motive Americans are notorious for this kind of thing in the Banana republics of Central America the US has regularly used covert means to overthrow leaders who fail to serve the interest of the us or of us multinationals like Chiquita (Banana).

It is no wonder then that Kofi who has always been Washington's errand boy is pushing for power sharing as is Washington's poodle the UK and all the NGOs who claim to be grassroots organizations but are actually astroturf(artificial grass) bought and paid for by the US.
It is hardly fair to call Annan Washington's errand boy. Sections of the American establishment allied to the current government waged a massive campaign against him at the United Nations. Eds.


Do you remember the countries that congratulated Kibaki after the flawed results were announced? The US was one of them. Now, Cogni, what do you want? That Kenyans consider that there is no political solution possible and start finishing the ugly job that was started?
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Foresight
written by observer , February 20, 2008
The US and the rest of the west have never had altruistic interests in Kenya and the rest of Africa. We in Kenya have failed to define our interests beyond the narrow and regressive tribal interests that we seem to love so much.
I have often wondered why the ODM signed the MoU with the Muslims, this sealed their fate as far as support from the US and much of the west went. I am not condoning the extradition of Kenya citizens to Ethiopia to be tortured. What I question is the foresight and political survey of such an agreement to secure votes but cost you dearly even if you win the election, vote you would have gotten anyway. One can still come to power and not comply with the extradition.
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not Zimbabwe
written by Stephen Wanyama , February 20, 2008
Someone said there were two Kenyas. It continues to become visible every day. Not class, not wealth, but in how we address adversity. Kenya does not need the West. Trust me, for every white farmer or whoever that leaves Kenya, there will be ten of us to take his place. Parts of Kenya it is true depend to a large extent on foreign aid and NGOs, but we will push through just like we did in the 1990s.

People forget that Equity, Bidco, KTN, AfricaOnline, Kenol/Kobil, Sameer and a host of other Kenyan companies were formed in the hard times of the 1990s. We have already in the last 5 years made great steps towards weaning ourselves off foreign aid. You see unlike our neighbours and other developing countries that are relying on high commodity prices, or relying on FDI or relying on aid for 50% of their budgets, Kenyans will soldier on and thrive.

My main worries are
a) Our foreign debt- we have been paying that back but not fast enough
b) Can we maintain peace enough to keep trading and manufacturing and to grow our service industry
c) can reforms in the agricultural sector last and continue to enrich poor Kenyans.
d) Can we isolate the warriors from those of us who want to move on?
e) have we got our energy in check? Given Kuwait was one of the first to say aye to Kibaki, one hope we do, but either way travail always nudges toward innovation.

By the way. With Kenya West of the Rift Valley not exporting as much tea as it did before, world tea prices have shot up. A fact which I am sure tea farmers in Gatundu and Igembe will enjoy. One hopes that sense will soon prevail in the Rift Valley, that there will be a counter-insurgency right in there, from mothers, farmers and business men saying they are tired of ODM's violent ways.
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Partitioning of Kenya a realit
written by Kim G. , February 20, 2008
Power sharing will fail because, as we speak, Kenya is already divided into two, with the fault line being the Rift Valley. As a matter of fact, if you happen to travel to those parts of the country, you will see sign posts announcing the Republic of the Rift Valley, Republic of Free Kenya, Peoples Republic of Kenya and so on.

Most of you have read reports of the international news agencies concerning the political situation there. Luo Nyanza and the Kalenjin dominated areas of the Rift Valley are effectively ungovernable. The state has lost its authority in these areas. As for Mt Elgon, the Sabaot Land Defense Force has established a government there complete with tax collection, arbitrary courts and execution grounds called Machinjoni.

The state has two solutions here and that is to either vacate these areas or to crush the militias by force. Using force is likely to create such resentment that may lead to massive rebellion that may last for decades. Indeed, one of the reasons Uganda's Lords Resistance Army exists is because of Museveni's crackdown in the 1980s against the Acholi and Lango.

The state has the option of negotiating secession of Luo Nyanza, parts of the Rift Valley and Western province with politicians from those regions who, am sure will gladly take the opportunity. Kenya can remain as the entire land mass east of the Western Rift Valley escarpment. Dont forget that the Rift valley floor and the Eastern escarpment were really Maasai areas and not Kalenjin areas. Therefore the issue of fighting over provincial borders is unlikely to arise. Its obvious that, with the exception of the above-mentioned two regions, most of Kenya wants to remain united.

Otherwise, we will be forcing ourselves to exist as two Kenyas with divergent objectives, divergent ideals with either side ready to crush the other.
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wait Kim G
written by Timothy Wainaina , February 20, 2008
Like was pointed out elsewhere, the Kisii and the Bukusu want no part of that State or Raila's. Also like has been pointed out before, these two groups are not natural allies. After they have defeated the Kikuyu there really is nothing in it for them to stay together longer than a week. The Luo themselves would not be here but for Raila Odinga, once he retires, they will regain their place with the rest of us, just you watch.

The big problem here is the Rift Valley, which I think has refused to accustom itself to the fact that we are all Kenyans.
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re: wait Kim G
written by Wuod Aketch , February 20, 2008

The big problem here is the Rift Valley, which I think has refused to accustom itself to the fact that we are all Kenyans.


I understand them. One sided exploitation can no longer be the order of the day in Kenya. If Kibaki does not agree to share power with ODM (though this is unjust as Kibaki did not win but rigged himself back) then I do not see how Kenya will remain a united country. Kibaki should not fool Kenyans ati the constitution should be changed first in order to accommodate ODM in the government. Every institution in Kenya is not credible so there will be no death of man if some of them are short circuited.
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America\'s Interest
written by Ngigi wa Kamau , February 20, 2008
There's the little matter of American energy policy that most people are failing to consider.

Kenya's look East while keeping options open stance has resulted in some bizarre outcomes, at least from Western perspectives. Most of Kenya's oil exploration blocks are in Chinese hands.

A fortnight ago, there were protests in Isiolo over the lack of an environmental impact assessment by the Chinese National Oil Corp. Largely driven in terms of non-cosultation etc, there was no doubt that civil society groups are being used by some unseen hands to attempt to frustrate Chinese influence locally.

Taking Somalia into account provides a clearer picture of USA designs. Without a pliant regime in Kenya, the Somali peace process - along with its outcomes - remains jeopardised. Recall, that in the days of Siad Barre, most Somalian oil concessions were in American hands. With the 1991 civil war, these concessions reverted to war lords like Aideed and current president Yusuf. Yusuf and his associates are board members of a company (details to be supplied soon) listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. This company owns concessions in as yet ungovernable Somalia.

Meanwhile, instability in Kenya jeopardises plans to build an oil pipeline from Southern Sudan to Lamu. Recent discoveries in Uganda/DRC stir the steaming pot in this regard.

Therefore, any energy hungry superpower would be schizophrenic to ignore the economic peril it would face if all its African energy sources were imperiled. As it is, ODM wants power regardless of long-term national interest, while PNU/ODM-K want to hang on to continue with their bold economic independence reforms.

If you were Condi bloody Rice, who would you advise Bush to pick?
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re: America\'s Interest
written by Wuod Aketch , February 20, 2008


Therefore, any energy hungry superpower would be schizophrenic to ignore the economic peril it would face if all its African energy sources were imperiled. As it is, ODM wants power regardless of long-term national interest, while PNU/ODM-K want to hang on to continue with their bold economic independence reforms.

This bold economic independence reforms are non existent. PNU/ODM-K are only here to pillage and plunder the government companies while pretending to privatize them. How many companies are still to be privatized? We all know how Equity bank has been favored for government contracts.
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ahhh... the smell of sweet sel
written by Ngigi wa Kamau , February 21, 2008
If funding 95% of our National Budget on Kenyan resources while more than doubling tax revenues in 5 years is not evidence of bold economic independence reforms,

then

Raila Odinga is indeed Christ the Messiah, and his various stooges will perfect his gospel of peace.

Pray tell, what contracts has Equity Bank been bidding for and received favours?
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...
written by Shikanga , April 29, 2008
The day people in ODM will ralise that Raila aka Prime minister is just interested in advancing his political agenda and propagate tribalism, thay will hate him for ever the way i dont like that guy,and why call people traitors just because they have made decision to join Kibaki,Kombo and Kalonzo are not traitors and if they are so is Raila,why is it that ODM followers want people to follow their way even when they have murderous in their camp and looters,wacheni Kombo akae in any case the is the only states man
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re: ahhh... the smell of sweet
written by Wuod Aketch , April 29, 2008
If funding 95% of our National Budget on Kenyan resources while more than doubling tax revenues in 5 years is not evidence of bold economic independence reforms,

then

Raila Odinga is indeed Christ the Messiah, and his various stooges will perfect his gospel of peace.

Pray tell, what contracts has Equity Bank been bidding for and received favours?


I have doubts whether doubling tax revenues meant that Kenyans were getting richer and living better.
The real outcome of 5 years of Kibaki administration was the creation of a new statute for Kenyans, IDP, and many ended macheting each other. What a remarkable achievement!!!
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 19 February 2008 )
 
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