Kenyan politics has always had a 9.8 rating for entertainment and thrills. The twists the turns, break-ups and make-ups, lies and promises, it is one long soap opera and it's only likely to get better.

so very near

There are Kenyans who still believe that Raila Odinga is a crusader against graft and the ancien regime. This after all has been the crusade of his life, and ODM is change, a breaking away from the filth of the past. This faith- for that is what it is, an irrational faith with little reference in the material world- preaches that Raila will wipe away the old system of things, and bring forth a new Kingdom. Every tear shall be wiped from our eyes, pain and suffering will be no more. An era of prosperity and full employment will ensue, and crime and want will become a thing of the past. The economy will be clipping away at 20% per annum, civil servants' salaries will be hiked, North Eastern province will be green, every Jimbo will thrive with its new parliament and police and Kibera will vanish from before our eyes. To top it all off, on the site of the present day Olympic school, will burn the torch of the 31st Olympiad.

Raila's sword will not spare the wicked. His infinite justice will choke those who plundered the public purse, and beg forgiveness for the error of their ways. The avenger's sword will serve as a lesson and a warning, the public purse is sacred and public officials must be above reproach.

Those who promulgate this fantasy also teach that this is the real reason for Moi's intervention in this election. It is why the old networks of corruption are arrayed against Raila's presidency, they say. The old man of Sacho is consumed with a fear that his sons will be crucified by the Raila government in a gory act of revenge for Raila's incarceration. At the stock market, it is feared that Raila Odinga will take to the traders and money-changers with a whip. He has been called a dangerous man, and perversely even a communist.

No need to worry

But this portrayal is far from rational, and although a Raila presidency is likely to go bad on account of poor planning and a downturn in the global economy, it is unlikely that he will pursue justice for Wanjiku. He has a large stake in the persistence of what we now call the status quo.

The real danger with our political passion is that we see only what we want to see, and by the dexterity of our betters are beguiled into perceiving as reality what is only an illusion. The ODM candidate for Langata does not represent change, he is an integral part of the Kenyan political system. It is true that he has his rivals in the political arrangement, but he and his allies are hardly honest. They have their hands to their elbows in the proceeds gained from the abuse of public office for immense private gain. If I may violate the saying, a man who has become in a short seven years a multiple billionaire is not about to throw stones at glass houses. Only the blind can fail to see the fact that the ODM government will bear an almost exact likeness with the party that would have won the election had President Moi appointed Raila his successor instead of launching the Uhuru Project.

So Moi vs. Raila is not a war of differing political ideology, it is not a war of fear, it is merely a battle of egos. President Moi shamed the Lang'ata MP in 2002 when after taking him for a long ride, even taking him as his bride, he hurt Raila by failing to consummate the union. But the spurned bride is no weeping lady, he is the master strategist. He has had it preached often enough that he would never be president. The naysayers pointed to his tribe, to his prepuce, his penchant for violence, his corruption, his querulous, combative nature and his inconsistency. Still he battled to prove himself and to prove the falsehood of the accuser. He battled hard, and may soon win the war even after losing the battle at the altar five years ago.

Play it by the numbers

Why do I insist that Raila will not go after Moi? Firstly, because Moi himself seems to know this. For an old man, he seems to be handling the pressure of an imminent attack pretty well. He seems neither desperate nor hysterical, and neither does his son. In fact their reaction to the Kroll Report was almost casual. President Moi and his children are safe. They are not safe because Raila loves them, but merely because he is far too intelligent to pursue them. This will be especially true if Raila enters State House as looks likely, on a euphoric wave that gives him a large majority in the house. There will be no crowds baying for more blood, and in victory the ODM leader. eager for laurels that declare his Christ-like essence, will seek magnanimity over revenge.

But even were he to win a narrow election, he would hardly need to prove to Kenyans that he suffers no prisoners. They know this already. What they do not know is whether or not he is a madman, and he will be at pains to disabuse them of this notion.

Another reason that will stay the Langata MPs hand is the fact that he will not want to draw any attention to his colossal fortune, or to the friends that he keeps. The efforts of retrieving the loot from past times will eat into resources that will soon be very scarce on the ground as the government embarks on large reforms of the state.

With his mind on such burdens as Majimboism and a new Constitution, with the stock market persisting in its slump and potential investors looking for any signs of disturbance, Raila will have little time or energy for revenge missions, especially not on targets whose size and power he has no way of gauging. The wise prince, as the Italian says, knows when to be a lion and when to act as a fox.

Sacrificial lamb?

It is true that he may have to make an example, especially to prove his credentials with the zealots but he is more likely to choose a small sacrifice that is unallied and weak than go after forces that could sustain a retaliation. A widely unloved target like Dr. Chris Murungaru will make a fine offering to appease the baying crowds even as he sends a signal to the major political and financial powers that he is not a friend but a foe. With a passionate, even fanatical support base and an imperial guard of MPs from Nyanza willing to take a bullet for him, his presidency if he is wise promises to be stable and secure, in parliament and on the streets. The MP for Langata, like Kibaki today knows that he owes Moi a great deal, and this not merely in raising his national profile, but also for facilitating his new and fabulous wealth.

Fret not Moi, rest easy. Your soul and Raila's are united forever, or as William Ruto put it, the Ndung'u report cannot be implemented because his name and that of Raila are also mentioned in the report.