Tea VI: Lemmings, galloping over the cliff PDF Print E-mail
Written by Alexander Eichener   
Friday, 20 July 2007

A past US girlfriend of mine - a very witty woman indeed - had a slogan "Go, lemmings, go!!" This ably captures the spirit of the Kenyan tea sector.

Instead of a long and thorough article - as one usually can expect from me, when it comes to tea -, just two juxtaposed snippets:

"Furthermore, deliberations at the two meetings revealed that there is a large overproduction of tea as supply surpasses consumption by 100 million kilogrammes in the globe. This oversupply of tea in the global market implies that if nothing is done now about supply and demand issues, the situation could get alarming.

Other challenges identified during the two meetings included; declining producer prices, low value addition, high cost of production and compliance to ISO standards."

HON KIPRUTO ARAP KIRWA, MP, MINISTER for agriculture on 27th MARCH, 2007, in this link here , and:

"Tea production for the first six months of the year rose by 48 per cent to 198 million kilos from 134 million kilos last year.

Tea Board of Kenya termed the first half production the highest in past years. "Although the 2006 production was affected by severe drought, this year's production is the highest that the tea industry has ever registered for the January - June period," said the board's managing director Sicily Kariuki. Mrs Kariuki said the "phenomenal performance" was due to unprecedented rainfall experienced during the first quarter of the year.

Production was higher in the tea growing areas West of the Rift than areas East of the Rift. West of the Rift, output rose by 63 per cent from 69 million kilos to 113 million kilos. Production within the East of Rift also increased significantly by 32 per cent from 64 million kilos to 85 million kilos.

Consequently, the estate sub sector, which is predominant in the West of Rift, recorded a production increase of 65 per cent from 44 million kilos to 72 million kilos.

The smallholder sub-sector registered an increased output of 39 per cent from 90 million kilos to 125 million kilos and accounted for 63 per cent of the total production."

Kaburu Mugambi, 2oth July 2007, in this link.  

My comment: GO, LEMMINGS,GO !


Alexander Eichener
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written by Amir Ibrahim , July 21, 2007
Is there nothing better to do on all that land? No alternative crops to grow? No alternative kinds of tea to grow?

I thought Cecily Kariuki ( Sicily ) was at least a competent manager. This is what got Kenya where it is, doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.
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written by aeichener , July 21, 2007
Sicily is very competent. And she sure knows about building a *successful* export economy, in her previous time in FPEAK (horticulture).

Yes, there is much better to do, or to cultivate. Many farmers have been lured into tea growing in the wrong places. But the first one to go belly-up will likely be Finlays. Swire & Sons are trying to get rid of it. Unprofitable.

Alexander
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written by a guest , July 24, 2007
What the author wrote here, is sadly true, though not exactly new. Catherine Riungu already hinted to it in her article in the "East African" of 5th June 2007, under the title: "Rising Tea Production Becomes Its Own Undoing". But the same East African is corrupt enough to to print an obviously paid-for blatantly pro-KLTDA commentary from its own editor-in-chief. Sad but common, this state of things.

Amir asked about the Tea Board. From my perspective, I would say that it is well possible that the new MD is well-intentioned, but what the Tea Board lacks, is a proper outreach to the grassroots, and an ear on the ground. My relas in shags can hardly make a living with tea, but they have never been asked by the Tea Board about their woes.
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KayB
written by Katah , October 01, 2007
Alexander i sent you some e mail on tea marketing. pls get in touch. This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
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written by aeichener , October 02, 2007
Have done so. Sorry for the delay!

The overproduction does not only affect KTDA. Even worse off are the large private estates (many of them transnational) organized within the KTGA. Numerous firms comtemplate giving up their Kenyan tea sector engagement altogether, and to retrench the entire workforce.

Alexander
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Tea V: World Tea Expo
written by aeichener , October 09, 2007
The missing fifth part of this series of tea-related articles has now been published in "Business Daily" of Wednesday, although in a somewhat strange form.

Update: The original version has now also been published here.

Alexander
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written by aeichener , October 18, 2007
In a proper Kenyan metaphor, I should have quoted hyraxes and not lemmings, but these rock imps are wily enough not to jump over cliffs. They'll rather hide in the crevices.

Now, the news. Didn't I say it? Didn't I say it?!

Just see here the alarming article in the East African, bringing devastating news for Kenyan tea farmers:
http://www.nationmedia.com/eas...200710.htm

"The Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA) has announced that small-scale tea farmers in Kenya will this year earn Ksh1 billion ($15 million) less in the second annual payment known as bonus compared with last year. This is the first time the payments have dropped in the history of the commodity."

Alexander
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written by aeichener , November 01, 2007
"October 31, 2007: A major leap in supply volumes over the first half of the year condemned the Mombasa tea auction to the lowest prices compared to its main rivals in the world."

Business Daily 31st Oct 2007

Alexander
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written by aeichener , November 05, 2007
Eric Kimani has recently commented on the lemmings' wandering into the abyss. He blames the herds(wo)man. Instead, he proposes that the wolverine / fjellfrass (Gulo gulo) should henceforth look after the lemmings, and exercise their liidaah-sheep.

Not a very wise idea, Eric: that would be about as circumspect as to make the honeybadger the overseer over the chicken. :-(

Alexander
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written by aeichener , January 08, 2008
The oversupply may now have been a bit moderated by the destruction of the last days, which afflicted mostly the large commercial private tea estates (notably Unilever) and the parastal Nyayo Tea Zones.

But I do not think that prices will be positively affected, except for a few cents temporarily up.

Alexander
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