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ODM-K must certainly be feeling the intense heat of mistrust stoked by the deep rivalry between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka; this just cannot be gainsaid.
When the chips are finally down, ODM-K may go into the annals of history as the party with had the largest following, but squandered its huge advantage and lost a general election it. True, the referendum may have been a different ball game, but there is no denying that the momentum it initially gave ODM-K, has for most of the year simply been unassailable.
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But what seems to be the problem? To put the finger on the pulse, it is imperative that a careful evaluation is undertaken between Raila and Kalonzo - two individuals who strike one as being as different as day is from night.
There are those pretty obvious differences. Kalonzo has been a conformist while Raila has been a rebel (with a cause?) for most of his political life. Indeed, when Raila's restlessness saw him travel the tortuous political path that took him from KANU to Ford to Ford-Kenya to NDP and then back to KANU; then to LDP to Narc and now in ODM-K, the pre-Narc Kalonzo was sitting pretty cosy with KANU even during the days when the independence party was abolishing the secret ballot voting system to pave way for the mlolongo (queue voting system), thus blatantly rigging elections and detaining those considered hot headed politicos like Raila, without trial.
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Kalonzo's political metamorphosis has been phenomenal and unlike Raila, is a creation of senior politicians, among which, ironically, Raila himself is to be counted - at least at the later stages. Raila on the other hand has been driven by a passion, a rebellious spirit that has seen him take risk after risk, most times stumbling but all the time gaining some ground.
Kalonzo is the very antithesis of Raila. More patient, more calculating but all the time very determined from the days he was fingered by the late Ukambani political doyen, Mulu Mutisya, before Daniel Moi took him over. Later (in 2002) Raila emboldened Kalonzo to rebel away from the trajectory of the baba na mama political path. Raila activated and re-enforced Kalonzo's submissive political mind, lacing it with a defiant streak that saw Kalonzo move to LDP and ultimately into Kibaki's Cabinet. It all, however, proved a false start with MoU and all .
Ultimately, the Kibaki Cabinet could not withstand the strain brought by rows and the Kalonzos and Railas got kicked out. Truth be told, it then was Raila who was the motor and soul of an ODM- juggernaut that made mince meat of Kibaki at the referendum with William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi on tow.
Kalonzo is the very antithesis of Raila. More patient, more calculating but all the time very determined from the days he was fingered by the late Ukambani political doyen, Mulu Mutisya, before Daniel Moi took him over. Later (in 2002) Raila emboldened Kalonzo to rebel away from the trajectory of the baba na mama political path. Raila activated and re-enforced Kalonzo's submissive political mind, lacing it with a defiant streak that saw Kalonzo move to LDP and ultimately into Kibaki's Cabinet. It all, however, proved a false start with MoU and all .
Ultimately, the Kibaki Cabinet could not withstand the strain brought by rows and the Kalonzos and Railas got kicked out. Truth be told, it then was Raila who was the motor and soul of an ODM- juggernaut that made mince meat of Kibaki at the referendum with William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi on tow.
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Today, four years down the line, the Kalonzo camp believe that it has amassed enough muscle to take on Raila. Here is what Kalonzo seems to be telling Raila: "I want to be sitting cosy next to the fire place and it does not look like there is enough room for the two of us!" In the light of natural justice, I personally find this bid to elbow out the team leader a blow below the belt.
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Between Raila and Kalonzo, who should show up the political light to the other? Your guess could be as good as mine. And this brings me to the question of the ideal method of picking the controversial ODM-K candidate. The movement says that it represents the ultimate future for this country. It says that it holds the key to a democratic nation where all Kenyans will partake in decision making. So, what is this about let's talk and decide who amongst us is best? What a contradiction! What a betrayal! Now, the consensus mode is placed in the management of a Council of Elders headed by Fred Gumo. These elders were chosen not by ODM-K's nationwide followers but by the consensus of the ODM luminaries. The Council does not have an idea as to whether it is acceptable to ODM loyalists since they have never floated out that question to the masses.
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Gumo's outfit has failed in the test of inclusiveness. Let the likely ODM-K flag bearer be realised through an open and inclusive democratic delegate exercise. While the Steadman poll ratings used to be favourable to him, Kalonzo was all for the delegate system just like Raila and the rest. But when did his camp lose faith in the system, in favour of consensus?
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Seems to me that when he was in government, both as Moi's and as Kibaki's Minister, he was only too happy to be a system boy. Destroying poor people's property, riding about in police helicopters, abusing his office to enrich his family and himself, and generally sitting on his hands.
That's something for all his supporters to think about. In the meantime, this vicious attacks on Kalonzo are winning you no points. Keep up the work and you are actually campaigning for him if he stands, and ultimately against your candidate. Ukweli, after the Mombasa shout-out, I will be going hoe in December with the express intention of voting in the way that will hurt Raila the most.
For me it is now like Le Pen vs. Chirac in France's previous election, i.e the Crook or the Fascist.