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Written by *   
Friday, 26 October 2007 10:47
S teadman has today published new opinion polls that show a shift in voter preferences in the lead up to the General Election. The election date has also been announced. Voting day is 27/12.

The Steadman polls indicate that Raila Odinga's support has fallen from 53% to 50%, the incumbent Mwai Kibaki saw his stock rise from 37% to 39%. The ODM-K candidate had an 8% share of the respondents' support. These changes are within the margins of error and give the impression that not much has changed.

We have publish here at KenyaImagine a new poll. You will find it at the bottom of the left hand side column. Raila Odinga and the ODM had close to 70% of the previous poll here on KenyaImagine. Have your views been changed by the increased debate and the revelations of the candidates?

Television talk shows, press articles and organisations such as the Catholic Church's statement today, cause voters to question their previously held views. Increasingly, some platforms such as the calls for Majimbo have enhanced or diminished voter preferences for ODM. The perception of disorganisation in the PNU may also have worked to diminish some of their support.

It has also been interesting to see the politicians statements in different locations around the country, and on national television. Their promises are coming under scrutiny for the first time, and the personalities chosen to represent the parties on screen are guiding voter sympathies. 

But do these really matter or are Kenyans minds made up? Will ODM's euphoric high be diminished by December 27?  Are Kenyans paying more attention to the issues? Here are the ECK voter numbers.

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Written on Friday, 26 October 2007 10:47 by *

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written by Kamale , October 27, 2007
Perhaps what was significant with the recent polls and was not publicised by the media was the result of the poll based on the national voter turn out in 2002 which has Raila leading Kibaki by 46% to 44%. Realistically the poll will be decided by the finaly turnout and it depends on who can mobilise the most on election day.

This being the case and with the elections due immediately after Christmas, a decision on the number of people able to travel after the holidays will greatly impact the results. In 2002, the timing of the election had many people fail to go and vote hence the low voter turnout. What will be the case this year?
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Kibaki can actually win!
written by Kamale , October 27, 2007
Is it possible for a Kibaki victory and especially if you use the Steadman Polls released yesterday? I think so and with perhaps a margin of 1% - a very close election. Here is how.

In order that I can give this more perspective and also tabulate figures for ease of use, I have posted a fresh article that will include the tables with the assumptions above.

(EDITED)
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@Kamalet
written by RV Pundit , October 27, 2007
Your assumption are spot on however applied on provincial percentage(which i suspecting you did) you'll get the biased conclusion. Having examined voter registration & turn out in details since 92,97,02 and the referendum i came to this conclusion!
1)Highest voter registration & turn out: Kalenjin have always had 80% & above turn out..the main reason for RV's 65%-68%.Most of Kalenjin regions post turn out of 90%! So be careful how you apply the prov % on this complex province

2) Second Grp(65%): Kikuyus(65%)both in Central & diaspora and South Nyanza(luos)!

3) Third Grp(55-60%): Central Nyanza(luos)& Eastern GEMA

4) Foruth Grp(50-55%):Ukambani
5) Below 50% but above 40%: Luhyas, Coast,Gusii
6) Below 40%: NEP

Unless you basis is tribal maths, the prov breakdown is fallacy esp in Nyanza(Gusii is low turn out & reg region ever since 92),Western (Sabaoti(kaleos) have high turn out of 80%) unlike Luhyas 40%,RV(KAMATUS+Kikuyu+BUKUSU)will/have had different turn outs, Coast(urban vs rural),Nairobi(low turn out,few women voters,hell of confusion due to importation)!

My 2 cents
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Polls are snap shot
written by Jaluth MaSoko , October 27, 2007
The energy on the ground says a different thing, the air reeks of the same odors that were there prior to moi project 1 bieng defeated by an alsmost 2:1 margin. everyone knew moi would loose. the same thing is now going on. everyone even the PNU guys know it. just observe the orgasmic response to the 2% rise their guys numbers. though within the poll margin of error they are ecstatic. this time steadman wont favor the incumbent because if they pump up the polls and manipulate the numbers, and then raila wins, the will forever loose their credibility. they are out to proove that what they are publishing is in deed rooted to fact, so they wil not be so easy to dismiss next time around
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Can Kibaki Win
written by Inziani , October 29, 2007
Well going by the opinion polls its really going to be a hard task for him. I dont think high turn out will make a difference to him. The problem is that on the ground political stands are actually emotional and the bulk of it is the feeling that the Govt has sidelined other tribes so largely this vote is an anti Kyuk vote (Dont kula me am just trying to be objective!!), thats why despite making so many rounds in his campaign the presi seems not to be making any progress but at the end of the day opinions polls are just opinion pollsat the end of theday ni debe that Matters. May the best man with many votes win!!
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Snashot indeed!
written by Kerich , October 30, 2007
I agree with MaSoko.the slight drop in Raila's poll though within the margin of error is probably accurate and a direct result of the demonisation of ODM's Bomas Majimbo system.Many have argued that it was an error including myself but i have come to think that maybe it wasn't. PNU's war cries just like those about odinga's personality are likely to backfire on them again.
Finally, i disagree with the whole voter turnout business.While it will impact the margin between the candidates, it's effect is likely to be small.Remember that the steadman prediction of the margin between orange and banana 10 days to election was spot on! If Kibaki's team would want to win they have to change their campaign strategy otherwise relying on turnout will be a tragic mistake. Remember even ODM supporters find this an extremely crucual elections and will also come out and vote.Also, I have talked to people from Central and I found out that not 100% of them are behind the presdent! Poverty,crime and insecurity also did occur here and as such, calls to the community to come out in large numbers doesnt mean the entire lot will vote Kibaki.
in conclusion,both my comments and those of the writer amount to nothing but hopeful analysis thus as Kivuitu says,let God and the people of kenya decide.Non of us and our tribal arithmetic truly knows.
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Stedman sio mambo yote!
written by Kerich , October 30, 2007
Oh i almost forgot,though i have come to trust the Steadman group for providing consistently accurate polls, to further prove that a statistical margin of error exists of about 1.5-3%,the nation commissioned polls of the same weekend had two of them showing Raila with a marginal increase to just over 50%. On averaging the four polling companies, I believe a margin of about 10-12&#xto; currently exist between the two front runners and certainly, if the figures dont change to a margin of below 4%,kibaki tena team musnt pop the champaign bottles or continue spewing that empty rhetoric for Steadman ni kazi ya muamerika(or continue peddling it but at least dont believe it themselves) otherwise short of rigging,the writing is on the wall.
By the way,Masoko, that pun about PNU peeps going orgasmic absolutely cracked me up! Oh but i'm all for clean and mature blogging devoid of base language!(TOO FUNNY bana!)
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written by Cleophaus Achollah , October 31, 2007
I don't really think the outcome of the election will be heavily based upon holiday. The winner will still be the winner even if ECK provides transportation to every individual's respective voting area. Excuses that someone will be defeated because whoever was to vote for him did not make it to the voting station does not stand at all. let us wait for the big day!!!
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Last Updated on Saturday, 27 October 2007 12:38