But that is not what I want to write about. As most readers will recall, following the 2002 elections, there was this continuous talk of how much the Agikuyu and President Kibaki owed Raila for his triumph over Uhuru Kenyatta. This was repeated so many times it was taken as the truth, and forms part of the casus belli that led to the fallout between the two politicians and their followers.  

We are now faced with another situation, not too dissimilar to that one, following these elections and especially if Raila Odinga is finally inaugurated as president of Kenya. Whilst in 2002, the argument was that the organisational ability of Raila in the campaigns that created an unpaid debt, these elections form an even ominous threat. There is no avoiding the fact that the Kalenjin community has probably voted to a man for Raila, and the Rift Valley vote currently stands at about 1.3 million for Raila against a figure of 1.07 million from Nyanza. The question that comes to mind is whether the Kalenjin will use these numbers to actually force concessions from Raila and how and if at all the ODM leader can address these demands without compromising his authority or alienating other Kenyan communities.

One of the complaints the Kalenjin had about Kibaki was the number of their own that were removed from public service (for one reason or other) though it is clear that quite a number of them had corruption clouds hanging over their heads. Now it is these same have been returned to public service with massive mandates, mandates that were also given to the ODM candidate.  I am talking about the likes of William Ruto, Sally Kosgey, Henry Kosgey, Zack Cheruiyot and Sam Mwaita. Raila has previously said that he will fight corruption, but would he not be politically naive not to see the problem he would face should he take on these people?

Another tricky campaign plank that energised this vote was the fact that Ruto and company campaigned for Majimbo. The Kalenjin would appear to favour Majimbo perhaps to right perceived wrongs from the past, which wrongs even President Moi's government did not manage to resolve. This was one key plank in the ODM campaign, but one that had to be shed when it started hurting ODM's campaign, frightening sections of voters when it started getting all manner of unsavoury labels.

Will Raila, knowing the mood of the rest of the country about Majimbo, take the risk and listen to the rest of the country and not grant Majimbo? What about the promise to make William Ruto the Prime Minister and deliver the Bomas draft in 6 months? Now this is a timebomb in that the Bomas Draft which the ODM stands for, calls for an executive PM and the question is whether after all his travails Raila will agree to relinquish the powers of executive office and become a ceremonial president. It has been suggested that the Raila Odinga plan has been to leave the presidency and become that Executive Prime Minister, but this will be a tricky proposition and it remains to be seen how he will tackle this conundrum and sell his plan to the Kalenjin.

In the last 5 years, Kenyans have learned to live with a demystified presidency,one that they can actually question. Politicians have also in the last 5 years learnt how to extract deals that are anti-Kenyan from the president, deals that he must give in to but which are ultimately hurtful to the mwananchi. Will Raila be that president that capitulates and risks that huge 1.3 million vote that Ruto now owns? Now these would be easy questions if you were dealing with another politician. But Raila is made of a different metal and these are the challenges he has to face head-on and  deal with honestly. His first few days in office will be very interesting, should he ultimately be sworn in as Kenyan's fourth president.